Biodiversity - Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100
(2000) In Science 287(5459). p.1770-1774- Abstract
- Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and Land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably wilt have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest... (More)
- Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and Land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably wilt have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/152919
- author
- organization
- publishing date
- 2000
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- Science
- volume
- 287
- issue
- 5459
- pages
- 1770 - 1774
- publisher
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:0034629324
- ISSN
- 1095-9203
- DOI
- 10.1126/science.287.5459.1770
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 9456b13a-7f2d-4038-af68-2bb3f357cff6 (old id 152919)
- date added to LUP
- 2016-04-01 17:14:50
- date last changed
- 2022-04-23 03:09:34
@article{9456b13a-7f2d-4038-af68-2bb3f357cff6,
abstract = {{Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and Land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably wilt have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.}},
author = {{Sala, O E and Chapin, F S and Armesto, J J and Berlow, E and Bloomfield, J and Dirzo, R and Huber-Sanwald, E and Huenneke, L F and Jackson, R B and Kinzig, A and Leemans, R and Lodge, D M and Mooney, H A and Oesterheld, M and Poff, N L and Sykes, Martin and Walker, B H and Walker, M and Wall, D H}},
issn = {{1095-9203}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{5459}},
pages = {{1770--1774}},
publisher = {{American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}},
series = {{Science}},
title = {{Biodiversity - Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5459.1770}},
doi = {{10.1126/science.287.5459.1770}},
volume = {{287}},
year = {{2000}},
}