Shogenji's Measure of Justification and the Inverse Conjunction Fallacy
(2013) In Synthese 190(15). p.3075-3085- Abstract
- This paper takes issue with a recent proposal due to Shogenji (Synthese 184:29-48, 2012). In his paper, Shogenji introduces J, a normatively motivated formal measure of justification (and of confirmation), and then proceeds to recruit it descriptively in an explanation of the conjunction fallacy. We argue that this explanation is undermined by the fact that it cannot be extended in any natural way to the inverse conjunction fallacy, a more recently discovered, closely related fallacy. We point out that since the inverse conjunction fallacy occurs in the absence of any form of explicit evidence, formal measures of confirmation such as J, are hard pressed to apply to it at all. We then proceed to argue that this problem with Shogenji's... (More)
- This paper takes issue with a recent proposal due to Shogenji (Synthese 184:29-48, 2012). In his paper, Shogenji introduces J, a normatively motivated formal measure of justification (and of confirmation), and then proceeds to recruit it descriptively in an explanation of the conjunction fallacy. We argue that this explanation is undermined by the fact that it cannot be extended in any natural way to the inverse conjunction fallacy, a more recently discovered, closely related fallacy. We point out that since the inverse conjunction fallacy occurs in the absence of any form of explicit evidence, formal measures of confirmation such as J, are hard pressed to apply to it at all. We then proceed to argue that this problem with Shogenji's measure is actually quite difficult to come to terms with; even if the situations where people commit the inverse conjunction fallacy are understood in such a way that the measure is applicable, it doesn't seem possible to reasonably interpret these situations in such a way that the measure can explain the found response pattern. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4275296
- author
- Jönsson, Martin LU and Assarsson, Elias
- organization
- publishing date
- 2013
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Conjunction fallacy, Inverse conjunction fallacy, Degree of, confirmation, Degree of Justification, Bayesian epistemology
- in
- Synthese
- volume
- 190
- issue
- 15
- pages
- 11 pages
- publisher
- Springer
- external identifiers
-
- wos:000327144200005
- scopus:84888059721
- ISSN
- 0039-7857
- DOI
- 10.1007/s11229-012-0125-8
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- a0d1ed80-7ede-495f-b442-f883148eb9b9 (old id 4275296)
- date added to LUP
- 2016-04-01 13:55:51
- date last changed
- 2022-04-01 15:02:32
@article{a0d1ed80-7ede-495f-b442-f883148eb9b9,
abstract = {{This paper takes issue with a recent proposal due to Shogenji (Synthese 184:29-48, 2012). In his paper, Shogenji introduces J, a normatively motivated formal measure of justification (and of confirmation), and then proceeds to recruit it descriptively in an explanation of the conjunction fallacy. We argue that this explanation is undermined by the fact that it cannot be extended in any natural way to the inverse conjunction fallacy, a more recently discovered, closely related fallacy. We point out that since the inverse conjunction fallacy occurs in the absence of any form of explicit evidence, formal measures of confirmation such as J, are hard pressed to apply to it at all. We then proceed to argue that this problem with Shogenji's measure is actually quite difficult to come to terms with; even if the situations where people commit the inverse conjunction fallacy are understood in such a way that the measure is applicable, it doesn't seem possible to reasonably interpret these situations in such a way that the measure can explain the found response pattern.}},
author = {{Jönsson, Martin and Assarsson, Elias}},
issn = {{0039-7857}},
keywords = {{Conjunction fallacy; Inverse conjunction fallacy; Degree of; confirmation; Degree of Justification; Bayesian epistemology}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{15}},
pages = {{3075--3085}},
publisher = {{Springer}},
series = {{Synthese}},
title = {{Shogenji's Measure of Justification and the Inverse Conjunction Fallacy}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-012-0125-8}},
doi = {{10.1007/s11229-012-0125-8}},
volume = {{190}},
year = {{2013}},
}