Time series modelling and trophic interactions: rainfall, vegetation and un gulate dynamics
Månsson, Lena LU ; Ripa, Jörgen LU
and Lundberg, Per
LU
(2007)
In Population Ecology
49(4).
p.287-296
- Abstract
- Abstract Time series analysis is a tool that is now
commonly used when analysing the states of natural populations.
This is a particularly complicated task for ungulates,
since the data involved usually contain large
observation errors and span short periods of time relative to
the species’ life expectancies. Here we develop a method
that expands on previous analyses, combining statistical
state space modelling with biological mechanistic modelling.
This enables biological interpretability of the statistical
parameters. We used this method to analyse African
ungulate census data, and it revealed some clarifying patterns.
The dynamics of one... (More) - Abstract Time series analysis is a tool that is now
commonly used when analysing the states of natural populations.
This is a particularly complicated task for ungulates,
since the data involved usually contain large
observation errors and span short periods of time relative to
the species’ life expectancies. Here we develop a method
that expands on previous analyses, combining statistical
state space modelling with biological mechanistic modelling.
This enables biological interpretability of the statistical
parameters. We used this method to analyse African
ungulate census data, and it revealed some clarifying patterns.
The dynamics of one group of species were generally
independent of density and strongly affected by rainfall,
while the other species were governed by a delayed density
dependence and were relatively unaffected by rainfall
variability. Dry season rainfall was more influential than
wet season rainfall, which can be interpreted as indicating
that adult survival is more important than recruitment in
governing ungulate dynamics. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/628680
- author
- Månsson, Lena
LU
; Ripa, Jörgen
LU
and Lundberg, Per
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2007
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Population dynamics, Mechanistic model, Kalman filter, Time series data
- in
- Population Ecology
- volume
- 49
- issue
- 4
- pages
- 287 - 296
- publisher
- Springer
- external identifiers
-
- wos:000249523500001
- scopus:34548690143
- ISSN
- 1438-390X
- DOI
- 10.1007/s10144-007-0053-5
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- fc649fb2-46da-4514-aedd-de714117df0a (old id 628680)
- date added to LUP
- 2016-04-01 12:13:26
- date last changed
- 2022-01-27 00:38:37
@article{fc649fb2-46da-4514-aedd-de714117df0a,
abstract = {{Abstract Time series analysis is a tool that is now<br/><br>
commonly used when analysing the states of natural populations.<br/><br>
This is a particularly complicated task for ungulates,<br/><br>
since the data involved usually contain large<br/><br>
observation errors and span short periods of time relative to<br/><br>
the species’ life expectancies. Here we develop a method<br/><br>
that expands on previous analyses, combining statistical<br/><br>
state space modelling with biological mechanistic modelling.<br/><br>
This enables biological interpretability of the statistical<br/><br>
parameters. We used this method to analyse African<br/><br>
ungulate census data, and it revealed some clarifying patterns.<br/><br>
The dynamics of one group of species were generally<br/><br>
independent of density and strongly affected by rainfall,<br/><br>
while the other species were governed by a delayed density<br/><br>
dependence and were relatively unaffected by rainfall<br/><br>
variability. Dry season rainfall was more influential than<br/><br>
wet season rainfall, which can be interpreted as indicating<br/><br>
that adult survival is more important than recruitment in<br/><br>
governing ungulate dynamics.}},
author = {{Månsson, Lena and Ripa, Jörgen and Lundberg, Per}},
issn = {{1438-390X}},
keywords = {{Population dynamics; Mechanistic model; Kalman filter; Time series data}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{4}},
pages = {{287--296}},
publisher = {{Springer}},
series = {{Population Ecology}},
title = {{Time series modelling and trophic interactions: rainfall, vegetation and un gulate dynamics}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10144-007-0053-5}},
doi = {{10.1007/s10144-007-0053-5}},
volume = {{49}},
year = {{2007}},
}