Applying Occam's razor to global agricultural land use change
(2016) In Environmental Modelling & Software 75. p.212-229- Abstract
- We present a parsimonious agricultural land-use model that is designed to replicate global land-use change while allowing the exploration of uncertainties in input parameters. At the global scale, the modelled uncertainty range of agricultural land-use change covers observed land-use change. Spatial patterns of cropland change at the country level are simulated less satisfactorily, but temporal trends of cropland change in large agricultural nations were replicated by the model. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in the input parameters representing to consumption preferences are important for changes in global agricultural areas. However, uncertainties in technological change had the largest effect on... (More)
- We present a parsimonious agricultural land-use model that is designed to replicate global land-use change while allowing the exploration of uncertainties in input parameters. At the global scale, the modelled uncertainty range of agricultural land-use change covers observed land-use change. Spatial patterns of cropland change at the country level are simulated less satisfactorily, but temporal trends of cropland change in large agricultural nations were replicated by the model. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in the input parameters representing to consumption preferences are important for changes in global agricultural areas. However, uncertainties in technological change had the largest effect on cereal yields and changes in global agricultural area. Uncertainties related to technological change in developing countries were most important for modelling the extent of cropland. The performance of the model suggests that highly generalised representations of socioeconomic processes can be used to replicate global land-use change. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/8761714
- author
- Engstrom, Kerstin LU ; Rounsevell, Mark D. A. ; Murray-Rust, Dave ; Hardacre, Catherine ; Alexander, Peter ; Cui, Xufeng ; Palmer, Paul I. and Arneth, Almut
- organization
- publishing date
- 2016
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Global agricultural land-use, Parsimonious models, Parameter, uncertainty, Sensitivity analysis, Cereal yields
- in
- Environmental Modelling & Software
- volume
- 75
- pages
- 212 - 229
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- wos:000367105900018
- scopus:84946434129
- ISSN
- 1364-8152
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.015
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 73e122d9-fd3b-48ad-91b9-f1b465f5fb41 (old id 8761714)
- date added to LUP
- 2016-04-01 10:23:07
- date last changed
- 2022-02-17 17:33:56
@article{73e122d9-fd3b-48ad-91b9-f1b465f5fb41,
abstract = {{We present a parsimonious agricultural land-use model that is designed to replicate global land-use change while allowing the exploration of uncertainties in input parameters. At the global scale, the modelled uncertainty range of agricultural land-use change covers observed land-use change. Spatial patterns of cropland change at the country level are simulated less satisfactorily, but temporal trends of cropland change in large agricultural nations were replicated by the model. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in the input parameters representing to consumption preferences are important for changes in global agricultural areas. However, uncertainties in technological change had the largest effect on cereal yields and changes in global agricultural area. Uncertainties related to technological change in developing countries were most important for modelling the extent of cropland. The performance of the model suggests that highly generalised representations of socioeconomic processes can be used to replicate global land-use change. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).}},
author = {{Engstrom, Kerstin and Rounsevell, Mark D. A. and Murray-Rust, Dave and Hardacre, Catherine and Alexander, Peter and Cui, Xufeng and Palmer, Paul I. and Arneth, Almut}},
issn = {{1364-8152}},
keywords = {{Global agricultural land-use; Parsimonious models; Parameter; uncertainty; Sensitivity analysis; Cereal yields}},
language = {{eng}},
pages = {{212--229}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{Environmental Modelling & Software}},
title = {{Applying Occam's razor to global agricultural land use change}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.015}},
doi = {{10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.015}},
volume = {{75}},
year = {{2016}},
}