Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems
Perera, A. T.D. ; Nik, Vahid M. LU
; Chen, Deliang
; Scartezzini, Jean Louis
and Hong, Tianzhen
(2020)
In Nature Energy
5.
p.150-159
- Abstract
Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. Here we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to... (More)
Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. Here we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to extreme weather events. Appropriate quantification of the climate change impacts will ensure robust operation of the energy systems and enable renewable energy penetration above 30% for a majority of the cities.
(Less)
- author
- Perera, A. T.D.
; Nik, Vahid M.
LU
; Chen, Deliang
; Scartezzini, Jean Louis
and Hong, Tianzhen
- organization
- publishing date
- 2020-02-17
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- Nature Energy
- volume
- 5
- pages
- 10 pages
- publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85079724915
- ISSN
- 2058-7546
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- ce4e2077-bc63-44e3-a4fc-530f760b0d23
- date added to LUP
- 2020-03-04 12:06:47
- date last changed
- 2022-04-18 20:52:42
@article{ce4e2077-bc63-44e3-a4fc-530f760b0d23,
abstract = {{<p>Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. Here we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to extreme weather events. Appropriate quantification of the climate change impacts will ensure robust operation of the energy systems and enable renewable energy penetration above 30% for a majority of the cities.</p>}},
author = {{Perera, A. T.D. and Nik, Vahid M. and Chen, Deliang and Scartezzini, Jean Louis and Hong, Tianzhen}},
issn = {{2058-7546}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{02}},
pages = {{150--159}},
publisher = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
series = {{Nature Energy}},
title = {{Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0}},
doi = {{10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0}},
volume = {{5}},
year = {{2020}},
}