Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer
(2011) In British Journal of Cancer 105(8). p.50-1144- Abstract
BACKGROUND: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.
METHODS: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics.
RESULTS: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and... (More)
BACKGROUND: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.
METHODS: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics.
RESULTS: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities.
CONCLUSION: This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.
(Less)
- author
- publishing date
- 2011-10-11
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Antineoplastic Agents/therapeutic use, Carboplatin/therapeutic use, Cohort Studies, Disease-Free Survival, Female, Humans, Middle Aged, Ovarian Neoplasms/drug therapy, Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models
- in
- British Journal of Cancer
- volume
- 105
- issue
- 8
- pages
- 50 - 1144
- publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- external identifiers
-
- pmid:21915127
- scopus:80053999734
- ISSN
- 1532-1827
- DOI
- 10.1038/bjc.2011.364
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- no
- id
- e7b0b8e7-3b73-4c01-8004-15b462fc9ee7
- date added to LUP
- 2019-09-20 07:44:28
- date last changed
- 2024-03-04 02:57:31
@article{e7b0b8e7-3b73-4c01-8004-15b462fc9ee7,
abstract = {{<p>BACKGROUND: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.</p><p>METHODS: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics.</p><p>RESULTS: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities.</p><p>CONCLUSION: This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.</p>}},
author = {{Lee, C K and Simes, R J and Brown, C and Lord, S and Wagner, U and Plante, M and Vergote, I and Pisano, C and Parma, G and Burges, A and Bourgeois, H and Högberg, T and Bentley, J and Angleitner-Boubenizek, L and Ferrero, A and Richter, B and Hirte, H and Gebski, V and Pfisterer, J and Pujade-Lauraine, E and Friedlander, M}},
issn = {{1532-1827}},
keywords = {{Adult; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Antineoplastic Agents/therapeutic use; Carboplatin/therapeutic use; Cohort Studies; Disease-Free Survival; Female; Humans; Middle Aged; Ovarian Neoplasms/drug therapy; Prognosis; Proportional Hazards Models}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{10}},
number = {{8}},
pages = {{50--1144}},
publisher = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
series = {{British Journal of Cancer}},
title = {{Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2011.364}},
doi = {{10.1038/bjc.2011.364}},
volume = {{105}},
year = {{2011}},
}