Hypothesis-testing demands trustworthy data-a simulation approach to inferential statistics advocating the research program strategy

Krefeld-Schwalb, Antonia; Witte, Erich H.; Zenker, Frank (2018-04-24). Hypothesis-testing demands trustworthy data-a simulation approach to inferential statistics advocating the research program strategy. Frontiers in Psychology, 9, (APR)
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| Published | English
Authors:
Krefeld-Schwalb, Antonia ; Witte, Erich H. ; Zenker, Frank
Department:
Lund University Information Quality Research Group (LUIQ)
Research Group:
Lund University Information Quality Research Group (LUIQ)
Abstract:

In psychology as elsewhere, the main statistical inference strategy to establish empirical effects is null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST). The recent failure to replicate allegedly well-established NHST-results, however, implies that such results lack sufficient statistical power, and thus feature unacceptably high error-rates. Using data-simulation to estimate the error-rates of NHST-results, we advocate the research program strategy (RPS) as a superior methodology. RPS integrates Frequentist with Bayesian inference elements, and leads from a preliminary discovery against a (random) H0-hypothesis to a statistical H1-verification. Not only do RPS-results feature significantly lower error-rates than NHST-results, RPS also addresses key-deficits of a "pure" Frequentist and a standard Bayesian approach. In particular, RPS aggregates underpowered results safely. RPS therefore provides a tool to regain the trust the discipline had lost during the ongoing replicability-crisis.

Keywords:
Bayes' theorem ; Inferential statistics ; Likelihood ; Replication ; Research program strategy ; T-test ; Wald criterion ; Probability Theory and Statistics ; Psychology (excluding Applied Psychology)
ISSN:
1664-1078
LUP-ID:
f634df0f-0582-4d73-b490-25bcebed1c44 | Link: https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/f634df0f-0582-4d73-b490-25bcebed1c44 | Statistics

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