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Industrial Relations Foresight 2025 for Sweden: Presentation of Results and Comments

Kjellberg, Anders LU (2009) In Studies in Social Policy, Industrial Relations, Working Life and Mobility. Research Reports 2009:1.
Abstract (Swedish)
Abstract in Swedish

Denna rapport presenterar och kommenterar den svenska delen av den expertundersökning som gjordes hösten 2007 för att få en bild av hur arbetsmarknadsrelationerna (industrial relations) i EU25- och G7-länderna kan tänkas se ut år 2025. Bakom undersökningen står European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound), som är ett EU-organ specialiserat på arbetslivet. En av de grundläggande frågorna handlar om hur globaliseringen påverkar framtidens industrial relations i vart och ett av EU27-länderna – dels i “de gamla medlemsstaterna” (EU15), dels i “de nya medlemsstaterna” (EU12) – samt i G7-länderna Australien, Brasilien, Kina, Indien, Japan, Sydafrika och USA. Frågeformuläret... (More)
Abstract in Swedish

Denna rapport presenterar och kommenterar den svenska delen av den expertundersökning som gjordes hösten 2007 för att få en bild av hur arbetsmarknadsrelationerna (industrial relations) i EU25- och G7-länderna kan tänkas se ut år 2025. Bakom undersökningen står European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound), som är ett EU-organ specialiserat på arbetslivet. En av de grundläggande frågorna handlar om hur globaliseringen påverkar framtidens industrial relations i vart och ett av EU27-länderna – dels i “de gamla medlemsstaterna” (EU15), dels i “de nya medlemsstaterna” (EU12) – samt i G7-länderna Australien, Brasilien, Kina, Indien, Japan, Sydafrika och USA. Frågeformuläret innehåller 16 frågor om framtiden vad gäller aktörer, processer och utfall på olika områden samt allmänna utvecklingstendenser hos industrial relations och i det omgivande samhället. De som besvarat frågorna representerar fackliga organisationer, arbetsgivarorganisationer, staten och forskare inom området. Från Sverige deltog 13 personer varav fyra från vardera fack och arbetsgivarorganisationer, två företrädare för staten samt tre forskare. Rapporten berör främst Sverige men innehåller också internationella jämförelser. Först presenteras några trender och utmärkande drag hos det svenska industrial relations-systemet. Vad gäller den fackliga organisationsgraden utgår undersökningen från en serie som inkluderar heltidsstuderande som arbetar vid sidan om studierna. Utifrån en organisationsgrad på 77% 2004 bedömdes andelen fackligt anslutna i Sverige ligga på 61% år 2025. Om de heltidsstuderande exkluderas motsvaras det av en nedgång från 79% 2004 till ca 63% 2025. Det ras i organisationsgraden som inträffade 2007 (samma år som undersökningen gjordes) påverkade sannolikt svaren även om det då inte förelåg några exakta uppgifter om nedgångens omfattning. En genomsnittlig organisationsgrad på 61% år 2025 motsvarar inom privat sektor sannolikt ca 55%. Det är avsevärt mindre än år 2004 men innebär ändå en relativt begränsad nedgång jämfört med andelen fackligt anslutna år 2008. Mellan 2006 och 2008 föll andelen fackligt anslutna inom privat sektor från 71% till 65%, dvs med hela sex procentenheter (exklusive heltidsstuderande). Vad som återstår 2008-2025 är således en nedgång på ca tio enheter (från 65% till 55%), vilket i genomsnitt innebär endast ca 0,6 procentenheters minskning per år. Kollektivavtalens täckningsgrad förväntas förbli på en hög nivå och omfatta 81% av löntagarna 2025, men det innebär likväl en nedgång på 11 procentenheter sedan 2004 då täckningsgraden var 92% och mer än en fördubbling av andelen löntagare utan kollektivavtal. Den sjunkande fackliga organisationsgraden kan förväntas få negativa konsekvenser på kollektivavtalens täckningsgrad. Om andelen löntagare under kollektivavtal minskar till 81% år 2025 kommer täckningsgraden inom privat sektor uppskattningsvis att bli ca 75%. Om staten varken inför utsträckningsmekanismer eller en lag om minimilöner kommer således var fjärde anställd inom näringslivet att vara utan kollektivavtal. Långt innan en sådan situation uppstår kommer sannolikt ökade krav på lagstiftning att framföras. Nästan 40% av de svenska respondenterna bedömer att en minimilönelag införs under perioden fram till 2025, men majoriteten är således av annan uppfattning. Mer än tre fjärdedelar av deltagarna i den svenska undersökningen anser att kollektivavtal även år 2025 kommer att vara det huvudsakliga instrumentet för att bestämma lönerna. Facken antas få samma inflytande som idag på både bransch- och arbetsplatsnivå, men en betydande osäkerhet finns vad gäller arbetsplatsnivån, i varje fall om de svar som pekar åt olika håll vägs samman. Den stora variationen kan antas återspegla divergerande uppfattningar om den önskvärda framtida utvecklingen. Det kan ifrågasättas om de svenska fackens inflytande kommer att förbli intakt om organisationsgraden sjunker till 61% år 2025 (55% i privat sektor) och kollektivavtalens täckningsgrad minskar med mer än tio procentenheter. Förhandlingar på sektor/branschnivå antas även fortsättningsvis dominera avtalssystemet i och med att 10 av de 13 svenska deltagarna bedömer att sektorn/branschen år 2025 förblir den dominerande förhandlingsnivån. Samtidigt finns det tydliga tecken på en viss decentralisering. Nästan varannan respondent anser att antingen individuella avtal (15%) eller kollektivavtal på arbetsplats/företagsnivå (31%) kommer att vara det viktigaste sättet att bestämma lönerna. För det andra anser mer än 60% av de svarande att arbetsplatsen/företaget kommer att vara en viktigare förhandlingsarena än idag. Slutsatsen är att den svenska partsregleringsmodellen (reglering genom arbetsmarknadsparterna själva) kommer att överleva, men också att kollektivavtalens minskade täckningsgrad kan resultera i lagar om minimilöner och/eller utsträckning av kollektivavtal till arbetsplatser som saknar sådana. De flesta som besvarat undersökningen anser emellertid att lagstiftning inte kommer att få ökad betydelse inom industrial relations-området. Den svenska arenan förutses också år 2025 ha ett avgörande inflytande på förhållandena inom arbetslivet även om betydelsen av den internationella nivån och EU ökar. Det innebär således en viss centralisering (till EU-nivån) i tillägg till den nämnda decentraliseringen. En knapp majoritet bedömer att EU-kommissionens reglerande roll inom arbetslivsområdet kommer att tillta. De flesta svenska respondenterna anser att fackens inflytande kommer att minska på nationell nivå (54%), men öka på den internationella nivån (69%) och förbli detsamma på bransch- och arbetsplatsnivåerna (här när de starkt avvikande svaren vägs samman). En knapp majoritet anser att den sociala tryggheten och inslaget av liberalism i den ekonomiska politiken varken kommer att öka eller minska. Å den andra sidan är det många (46%) som anser att liberalismen i den ekonomiska politiken kommer att få ett ökat utrymme och att den sociala tryggheten kommer att minska. Betydande majoriteter förutser ökad individualism (69%), ökad flexibilitet i arbetslivet (92%), ökad andel egenföretagare (69%) och ökade inkomstskillnader (85%) medan anställningstryggheten bedöms minska (80%) liksom lönegapet mellan män och kvinnor (77%) och allmänhetens förtroende för fackföreningar (61.5%). (Less)
Abstract
This report presents and comments on the Swedish part of a survey made in autumn 2007 to obtain expert opinions on industrial relations in the EU25 and G7 countries in the year 2025. The survey was carried out by the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound). One of the basic questions was about how the process of globalisation will influence future industrial relations in each of the EU27 member states (EU15 “old members states” and EU12 “new member states”) and in Global 7 countries (Australia, Brazil, China, India, Japan, South Africa, and the USA). The questionnaire contained 16 questions about the future development of actors, processes, outcomes and general trends in industrial relations and... (More)
This report presents and comments on the Swedish part of a survey made in autumn 2007 to obtain expert opinions on industrial relations in the EU25 and G7 countries in the year 2025. The survey was carried out by the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound). One of the basic questions was about how the process of globalisation will influence future industrial relations in each of the EU27 member states (EU15 “old members states” and EU12 “new member states”) and in Global 7 countries (Australia, Brazil, China, India, Japan, South Africa, and the USA). The questionnaire contained 16 questions about the future development of actors, processes, outcomes and general trends in industrial relations and their environment. The respondents were representatives of trade unions, employers’ organisations, governments and academic experts. From Sweden 13 respondents participated, four of them trade union representatives, another four representatives of employer organisations, two government representatives and three academic experts in the industrial relations field. The report focuses on the Swedish survey results, but also contains international comparisons. First some trends and features of Swedish industrial relations are presented. As regards union density the survey started from a series that includes full-time students working part-time. With a union density of 77% (2004) in their heads the Swedish respondents in average foresaw a density of 61% in 2025 (corresponding to 79% in 2004 and about 63% in 2025 excluding full-time students working part-time). The fall in the rate of unionization in 2007 probably influenced the foresight although the exact size of the decline was not yet known. An average union density of 61% corresponds to about 55% unionized workers in the private sector. That is substantially lower than in 2004, but a relatively small decline compared to the private sector union density in 2008 (65%, excluding full-time students). Between 2006 and 2008 density in this sector declined from 71% to 65%, that is by six percentage points in two years (excluding full-time students). A ten percentage points decline remains between 2008 and 2025, which means in average just 0.6 points per year. Collective bargaining coverage is expected to remain at a high level in 2025 (81%) but nonetheless 11 percentage points less than in 2004 (92%). By that the share of workers outside the collective bargaining system would more than double up to the year 2025. The declining union density could be expected to have a negative influence on bargaining coverage. If the average coverage fell to 81% in 2025, then the private sector collective bargaining coverage would probably be about 75%. If neither extension mechanisms nor legislation on minimum wages are introduced, as much as every fourth worker in the private sector could be outside the collective bargaining system. Long before such a situation occurs demands on legislation would probably appear. Almost 40% of Swedish respondents think that legislation on minimum wages will be introduced in the period up to 2025. As regards wages more than four out of five Swedish respondents think that collective agreements will still be the main way of regulation in the year 2025. Unions are expected to have the same impact as today at both industry and workplace level, but a considerable insecurity is indicated by the large variation in assessments, in particular regarding the impact of unions at workplace/enterprise level. This large variation probably reflects divergent views among respondents on the desirable future development. It might be called into question if the impact of Swedish trade unions were unchanged if union density declined to 61% in 2025 (about 55% in private sector) and collective bargaining coverage decreased by more than 10 percentage points. Bargaining at sector/industry level seems to continue to dominate the collective bargaining system as 10 of the 13 Swedish respondents think that the sector/branch will remain the dominant level of collective bargaining even in 2025. At the same time decentralisation is indicated as almost every second respondent thinks that either individual contracts (15%) or workplace/enterprise collective agreements (31%) will be the main way of regulating wages. Secondly, more than 60% of respondents think that the workplace/enterprise will be a more important bargaining level than today. The Swedish model of self-regulation (regulation by the labour market parties themselves) will survive, but the decreasing coverage of collective agreements might be followed by legislation on minimum wages and/or on extension of collective agreements. Most respondents, however, think that the role of the government as legislator in industrial relations will remain the same. The Swedish national arena will still be the dominant one in industrial relations in 2025, although the role of the international level and the EU level will increase, thus a certain centralisation (to the EU level) in addition to the decentralisation tendency mentioned above. A slight majority thinks that the regulating role of the EU Commission will increase in working life. Most respondents think that the impact of unions will decrease at the national level (54%), increase at the international level (69%) and remain about the same at sector/industry and workplace/enterprise levels (in the latter cases when the considerably diverging replies are weighted together). A slight majority think that social security and the degree of liberalism in economic policy will be unchanged. On the other hand, large minorities (46%) think that liberalism in economic policy will increase and social security decrease. Large majorities expect that individualism (69%), flexibility in working life (92%), self-employment (69%) and inequality in incomes (85%) will increase, while job security (80%), the wage gap between men and women (77%) and public support to unions (61.5%) will decrease. (Less)
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keywords
income inequality, flexibility, collective bargaining coverage, trade unions, individualism, employers' associations, liberalism, industrial relations, European Works Councils, minimum wages, survey, European Union, foresight, G7, EU27, EU15, EU Commission, EU12, EU, union density, collective bargaining, fack, self-regulation, industrial actions, atypical employment, Eurofound, state regulation, EWC, fackförening, framtidens fack, job security, arbetsliv, framtidens arbetsliv, equal opportunities, Dublininstitutet, self-employment, organisationsgrad, sociology, partsrelationer, år 2025, arbetsgivare
in
Studies in Social Policy, Industrial Relations, Working Life and Mobility. Research Reports
volume
2009:1
pages
58 pages
publisher
Department of Sociology, Lund University
ISBN
91-7267-306-0
project
Union Density in a Global Perspective
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
5021a052-7bb3-410f-a247-7ce2a51304b0 (old id 1433310)
date added to LUP
2009-08-20 09:30:18
date last changed
2016-04-16 09:52:35
@misc{5021a052-7bb3-410f-a247-7ce2a51304b0,
  abstract     = {This report presents and comments on the Swedish part of a survey made in autumn 2007 to obtain expert opinions on industrial relations in the EU25 and G7 countries in the year 2025. The survey was carried out by the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound). One of the basic questions was about how the process of globalisation will influence future industrial relations in each of the EU27 member states (EU15 “old members states” and EU12 “new member states”) and in Global 7 countries (Australia, Brazil, China, India, Japan, South Africa, and the USA). The questionnaire contained 16 questions about the future development of actors, processes, outcomes and general trends in industrial relations and their environment. The respondents were representatives of trade unions, employers’ organisations, governments and academic experts. From Sweden 13 respondents participated, four of them trade union representatives, another four representatives of employer organisations, two government representatives and three academic experts in the industrial relations field. The report focuses on the Swedish survey results, but also contains international comparisons. First some trends and features of Swedish industrial relations are presented. As regards union density the survey started from a series that includes full-time students working part-time. With a union density of 77% (2004) in their heads the Swedish respondents in average foresaw a density of 61% in 2025 (corresponding to 79% in 2004 and about 63% in 2025 excluding full-time students working part-time). The fall in the rate of unionization in 2007 probably influenced the foresight although the exact size of the decline was not yet known. An average union density of 61% corresponds to about 55% unionized workers in the private sector. That is substantially lower than in 2004, but a relatively small decline compared to the private sector union density in 2008 (65%, excluding full-time students). Between 2006 and 2008 density in this sector declined from 71% to 65%, that is by six percentage points in two years (excluding full-time students). A ten percentage points decline remains between 2008 and 2025, which means in average just 0.6 points per year. Collective bargaining coverage is expected to remain at a high level in 2025 (81%) but nonetheless 11 percentage points less than in 2004 (92%). By that the share of workers outside the collective bargaining system would more than double up to the year 2025. The declining union density could be expected to have a negative influence on bargaining coverage. If the average coverage fell to 81% in 2025, then the private sector collective bargaining coverage would probably be about 75%. If neither extension mechanisms nor legislation on minimum wages are introduced, as much as every fourth worker in the private sector could be outside the collective bargaining system. Long before such a situation occurs demands on legislation would probably appear. Almost 40% of Swedish respondents think that legislation on minimum wages will be introduced in the period up to 2025. As regards wages more than four out of five Swedish respondents think that collective agreements will still be the main way of regulation in the year 2025. Unions are expected to have the same impact as today at both industry and workplace level, but a considerable insecurity is indicated by the large variation in assessments, in particular regarding the impact of unions at workplace/enterprise level. This large variation probably reflects divergent views among respondents on the desirable future development. It might be called into question if the impact of Swedish trade unions were unchanged if union density declined to 61% in 2025 (about 55% in private sector) and collective bargaining coverage decreased by more than 10 percentage points. Bargaining at sector/industry level seems to continue to dominate the collective bargaining system as 10 of the 13 Swedish respondents think that the sector/branch will remain the dominant level of collective bargaining even in 2025. At the same time decentralisation is indicated as almost every second respondent thinks that either individual contracts (15%) or workplace/enterprise collective agreements (31%) will be the main way of regulating wages. Secondly, more than 60% of respondents think that the workplace/enterprise will be a more important bargaining level than today. The Swedish model of self-regulation (regulation by the labour market parties themselves) will survive, but the decreasing coverage of collective agreements might be followed by legislation on minimum wages and/or on extension of collective agreements. Most respondents, however, think that the role of the government as legislator in industrial relations will remain the same. The Swedish national arena will still be the dominant one in industrial relations in 2025, although the role of the international level and the EU level will increase, thus a certain centralisation (to the EU level) in addition to the decentralisation tendency mentioned above. A slight majority thinks that the regulating role of the EU Commission will increase in working life. Most respondents think that the impact of unions will decrease at the national level (54%), increase at the international level (69%) and remain about the same at sector/industry and workplace/enterprise levels (in the latter cases when the considerably diverging replies are weighted together). A slight majority think that social security and the degree of liberalism in economic policy will be unchanged. On the other hand, large minorities (46%) think that liberalism in economic policy will increase and social security decrease. Large majorities expect that individualism (69%), flexibility in working life (92%), self-employment (69%) and inequality in incomes (85%) will increase, while job security (80%), the wage gap between men and women (77%) and public support to unions (61.5%) will decrease.},
  author       = {Kjellberg, Anders},
  isbn         = {91-7267-306-0},
  keyword      = {income inequality,flexibility,collective bargaining coverage,trade unions,individualism,employers' associations,liberalism,industrial relations,European Works Councils,minimum wages,survey,European Union,foresight,G7,EU27,EU15,EU Commission,EU12,EU,union density,collective bargaining,fack,self-regulation,industrial actions,atypical employment,Eurofound,state regulation,EWC,fackförening,framtidens fack,job security,arbetsliv,framtidens arbetsliv,equal opportunities,Dublininstitutet,self-employment,organisationsgrad,sociology,partsrelationer,år 2025,arbetsgivare},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {58},
  publisher    = {ARRAY(0x93a8048)},
  series       = {Studies in Social Policy, Industrial Relations, Working Life and Mobility. Research Reports},
  title        = {Industrial Relations Foresight 2025 for Sweden: Presentation of Results and Comments},
  volume       = {2009:1},
  year         = {2009},
}