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Dealing with epistemic uncertainty in the SST framework

Katos, Vasilios; Bednar, Peter LU and Welch, Christine (2006) In Creativity and Innovation in Decision-making and Decision Support 2. p.886-903
Abstract
Epistemic uncertainty has been suggested to be fundamental to human experience. The authors of this paper believe that people need to exercise creativity in their conjectures, drawing upon knowledge and experience, in order to generate solutions to both instrumental and epistemic problems, and encourage higher orders of learning. Innovative methodologies are needed which can provide support for individuals in developing both problem spaces and potential solutions. An intrinsic property of human analytical reasoning is that it can allow evidence that may be of a contradictory nature to be considered, within the same problem frame, as a valid part of a resolution. However, many tools and methods designed to support human beings in their... (More)
Epistemic uncertainty has been suggested to be fundamental to human experience. The authors of this paper believe that people need to exercise creativity in their conjectures, drawing upon knowledge and experience, in order to generate solutions to both instrumental and epistemic problems, and encourage higher orders of learning. Innovative methodologies are needed which can provide support for individuals in developing both problem spaces and potential solutions. An intrinsic property of human analytical reasoning is that it can allow evidence that may be of a contradictory nature to be considered, within the same problem frame, as a valid part of a resolution. However, many tools and methods designed to support human beings in their decision-making processes are based upon logic which cannot deal with conflicting evidence, e.g. traditional computer software or statistical techniques. This paper explores a special case of the Strategic Systemic Thinking framework as an approach for analysing contextual dependencies, and formulating problem spaces, by employing Dempster and Shafer's mathematical Theory of Evidence (DST). Through DST classical probability is extended so that events can be described at a higher level of abstraction, without a requirement to prove assumptions. However, in our suggested application, this feature which may sometimes be perceived as a weakness becomes a strength. The paper introduces both the SST framework and the principles of DST, and uses an example to show how they can be combined into a potentially useful methodology. (Less)
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author
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Contextual Analysis, SST framework, Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence, Strategic Systemic Thinking, epistemic uncertainty, Contextual Inquiry
in
Creativity and Innovation in Decision-making and Decision Support
editor
Adam, Frederic; Brezillon, Patrick; Carlsson, Sven and Humphreys, Patrick
volume
2
pages
886 - 903
publisher
Decision Support Press
ISBN
978-1-905800-01-8
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
2aef0525-f51c-4e29-9c56-0dd93ab7f581 (old id 1484901)
date added to LUP
2009-10-06 15:59:08
date last changed
2016-06-29 09:07:04
@misc{2aef0525-f51c-4e29-9c56-0dd93ab7f581,
  abstract     = {Epistemic uncertainty has been suggested to be fundamental to human experience. The authors of this paper believe that people need to exercise creativity in their conjectures, drawing upon knowledge and experience, in order to generate solutions to both instrumental and epistemic problems, and encourage higher orders of learning. Innovative methodologies are needed which can provide support for individuals in developing both problem spaces and potential solutions. An intrinsic property of human analytical reasoning is that it can allow evidence that may be of a contradictory nature to be considered, within the same problem frame, as a valid part of a resolution. However, many tools and methods designed to support human beings in their decision-making processes are based upon logic which cannot deal with conflicting evidence, e.g. traditional computer software or statistical techniques. This paper explores a special case of the Strategic Systemic Thinking framework as an approach for analysing contextual dependencies, and formulating problem spaces, by employing Dempster and Shafer's mathematical Theory of Evidence (DST). Through DST classical probability is extended so that events can be described at a higher level of abstraction, without a requirement to prove assumptions. However, in our suggested application, this feature which may sometimes be perceived as a weakness becomes a strength. The paper introduces both the SST framework and the principles of DST, and uses an example to show how they can be combined into a potentially useful methodology.},
  author       = {Katos, Vasilios and Bednar, Peter and Welch, Christine},
  editor       = {Adam, Frederic and Brezillon, Patrick and Carlsson, Sven and Humphreys, Patrick},
  isbn         = {978-1-905800-01-8},
  keyword      = {Contextual Analysis,SST framework,Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence,Strategic Systemic Thinking,epistemic uncertainty,Contextual Inquiry},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {886--903},
  publisher    = {ARRAY(0x6e8c9b0)},
  series       = {Creativity and Innovation in Decision-making and Decision Support},
  title        = {Dealing with epistemic uncertainty in the SST framework},
  volume       = {2},
  year         = {2006},
}