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An Evacuation Decision Model based on perceived risk, social influence and behavioural uncertainty

Lovreglio, Ruggiero LU ; Ronchi, Enrico LU and Nilsson, Daniel LU (2016) In Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory 66. p.226-242
Abstract
The behaviour of people in the first stage of an evacuation can have a significant impact on the time required to reach a safe place. This behaviour is known in literature as pre-evacuation behaviour and it has been studied for many different evacuating scenarios. Despite the large number of studies, the representation of this behaviour is often oversimplified in most of the existing evacuation models. This paper aims to introduce a novel Evacuation Decision Model, allowing predicting the pre-evacuation state of an evacuee among three possible states (normal, investigation and evacuation) considering perceived risk for an evacuation scenario. The proposed model assumes that evacuees’ perceived risk is affected by several environmental and... (More)
The behaviour of people in the first stage of an evacuation can have a significant impact on the time required to reach a safe place. This behaviour is known in literature as pre-evacuation behaviour and it has been studied for many different evacuating scenarios. Despite the large number of studies, the representation of this behaviour is often oversimplified in most of the existing evacuation models. This paper aims to introduce a novel Evacuation Decision Model, allowing predicting the pre-evacuation state of an evacuee among three possible states (normal, investigation and evacuation) considering perceived risk for an evacuation scenario. The proposed model assumes that evacuees’ perceived risk is affected by several environmental and social cues as well as by demographics and personal characteristics of evacuees. The concept of behavioural uncertainty is also included in the model and a formulation to calibrate the proposed model using a likelihood function is then provided. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
in press
subject
keywords
Evacuation modelling, Pre-evacuation behaviour, Decision making, Behavioural uncertainty, Ordered logit
in
Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory
volume
66
pages
17 pages
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • Scopus:84964575583
ISSN
1569-190X
DOI
10.1016/j.simpat.2016.03.006
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
23947f5c-5213-414d-9f25-d71770805248
date added to LUP
2016-05-04 13:37:37
date last changed
2016-10-13 16:12:56
@misc{23947f5c-5213-414d-9f25-d71770805248,
  abstract     = {The behaviour of people in the first stage of an evacuation can have a significant impact on the time required to reach a safe place. This behaviour is known in literature as pre-evacuation behaviour and it has been studied for many different evacuating scenarios. Despite the large number of studies, the representation of this behaviour is often oversimplified in most of the existing evacuation models. This paper aims to introduce a novel Evacuation Decision Model, allowing predicting the pre-evacuation state of an evacuee among three possible states (normal, investigation and evacuation) considering perceived risk for an evacuation scenario. The proposed model assumes that evacuees’ perceived risk is affected by several environmental and social cues as well as by demographics and personal characteristics of evacuees. The concept of behavioural uncertainty is also included in the model and a formulation to calibrate the proposed model using a likelihood function is then provided.},
  author       = {Lovreglio, Ruggiero and Ronchi, Enrico and Nilsson, Daniel},
  issn         = {1569-190X},
  keyword      = {Evacuation modelling,Pre-evacuation behaviour,Decision making,Behavioural uncertainty,Ordered logit},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {04},
  pages        = {226--242},
  publisher    = {ARRAY(0x8537a78)},
  series       = {Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory},
  title        = {An Evacuation Decision Model based on perceived risk, social influence and behavioural uncertainty},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.simpat.2016.03.006},
  volume       = {66},
  year         = {2016},
}