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An exploratory analysis of the impact of climate change on Macedonian agriculture

Hristov, Jordan LU (2015) International Conference of Agricultural Economists
Abstract
Using a mixed input-output framework, this study examined potential changes in sector output and water requirements at national level in Macedonia arising from climate change. By defining three climate change scenarios and exogenously specifying the warming shocks for five key agricultural sub-sectors, the direct and indirect effects on the economy in terms of output and water demand were quantified. In general, the results indicated that except for cereals and grapes, agricultural production would benefit from the low climate change scenario, while there would be negligible effects on the rest of the economy. In contrast, the medium and high climate change scenarios would most likely negatively affect agriculture, with severe losses in... (More)
Using a mixed input-output framework, this study examined potential changes in sector output and water requirements at national level in Macedonia arising from climate change. By defining three climate change scenarios and exogenously specifying the warming shocks for five key agricultural sub-sectors, the direct and indirect effects on the economy in terms of output and water demand were quantified. In general, the results indicated that except for cereals and grapes, agricultural production would benefit from the low climate change scenario, while there would be negligible effects on the rest of the economy. In contrast, the medium and high climate change scenarios would most likely negatively affect agriculture, with severe losses in grape, apple and cereal production, but again with low effects on other economic sectors. These results on the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change can help decision makers formulate future adaptation measures for the Macedonian agriculture sector. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to conference
publication status
published
subject
keywords
agriculture, climate change, crop production, mixed input-output model, water consumption
conference name
International Conference of Agricultural Economists
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
34a9e419-19d0-4287-9fc1-69de82dd0cdd
alternative location
http://An exploratory analysis of the impact of climate change on Macedonian agriculture
date added to LUP
2016-09-09 15:09:54
date last changed
2016-09-13 10:53:38
@misc{34a9e419-19d0-4287-9fc1-69de82dd0cdd,
  abstract     = {Using a mixed input-output framework, this study examined potential changes in sector output and water requirements at national level in Macedonia arising from climate change. By defining three climate change scenarios and exogenously specifying the warming shocks for five key agricultural sub-sectors, the direct and indirect effects on the economy in terms of output and water demand were quantified. In general, the results indicated that except for cereals and grapes, agricultural production would benefit from the low climate change scenario, while there would be negligible effects on the rest of the economy. In contrast, the medium and high climate change scenarios would most likely negatively affect agriculture, with severe losses in grape, apple and cereal production, but again with low effects on other economic sectors. These results on the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change can help decision makers formulate future adaptation measures for the Macedonian agriculture sector.},
  author       = {Hristov, Jordan},
  keyword      = {agriculture,climate change,crop production,mixed input-output model,water consumption},
  language     = {eng},
  title        = {An exploratory analysis of the impact of climate change on Macedonian agriculture},
  year         = {2015},
}