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War, Performance and the Survival of Foreign Ministers

Bäck, Hanna LU ; Teorell, Jan LU and von Hagen-Jamar, Alexander LU (2016) In STANCE Working Paper Series 2016(4).
Abstract
Are foreign ministers punished for their performance in office, or when the country loses a war? The literature has increasingly recognized the importance of individual leaders when explaining foreign policy outcomes. Several scholars have focused on the survival of leaders as an important predictor of war onset, which has created an interest in predicting the survival of heads of governments. We contribute to this literature by shifting the focus to the survival of other important politicians in cabinet – foreign ministers. We hypothesize that the survival of foreign ministers depends on their performance in office, and that they are less likely to survive when there is a high level of conflict or after the country loses an armed... (More)
Are foreign ministers punished for their performance in office, or when the country loses a war? The literature has increasingly recognized the importance of individual leaders when explaining foreign policy outcomes. Several scholars have focused on the survival of leaders as an important predictor of war onset, which has created an interest in predicting the survival of heads of governments. We contribute to this literature by shifting the focus to the survival of other important politicians in cabinet – foreign ministers. We hypothesize that the survival of foreign ministers depends on their performance in office, and that they are less likely to survive when there is a high level of conflict or after the country loses an armed conflict. We also hypothesize that the tenures of foreign ministers with a military, diplomatic or political background, are less affected by the conflict situation. We evaluate and find support for several of our hypotheses using original historical data (during the “long 19th century”) on foreign ministers’ background and reasons for leaving office for five countries with very different experiences with conflict and war; Austria, Prussia/Germany, Sweden, the UK, and the US. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Working Paper
publication status
published
subject
keywords
foreign ministers, foreign policy, policy outcomes, survival of leaders, war onset, 19th century, historical data, Sweden, Austria, Prussia, Germany, USA, UK
in
STANCE Working Paper Series
volume
2016
issue
4
pages
29 pages
publisher
Department of Political Science, Lund University
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
3dd23320-9d7b-4044-bfe6-f2f256e0d4da
date added to LUP
2016-06-07 15:55:43
date last changed
2016-08-15 16:37:23
@misc{3dd23320-9d7b-4044-bfe6-f2f256e0d4da,
  abstract     = {Are foreign ministers punished for their performance in office, or when the country loses a war? The literature has increasingly recognized the importance of individual leaders when explaining foreign policy outcomes. Several scholars have focused on the survival of leaders as an important predictor of war onset, which has created an interest in predicting the survival of heads of governments. We contribute to this literature by shifting the focus to the survival of other important politicians in cabinet – foreign ministers. We hypothesize that the survival of foreign ministers depends on their performance in office, and that they are less likely to survive when there is a high level of conflict or after the country loses an armed conflict. We also hypothesize that the tenures of foreign ministers with a military, diplomatic or political background, are less affected by the conflict situation. We evaluate and find support for several of our hypotheses using original historical data (during the “long 19th century”) on foreign ministers’ background and reasons for leaving office for five countries with very different experiences with conflict and war; Austria, Prussia/Germany, Sweden, the UK, and the US. },
  author       = {Bäck, Hanna and Teorell, Jan and von Hagen-Jamar, Alexander},
  keyword      = {foreign ministers,foreign policy,policy outcomes,survival of leaders,war onset,19th century,historical data,Sweden,Austria,Prussia,Germany,USA,UK},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {4},
  pages        = {29},
  publisher    = {ARRAY(0x9e49150)},
  series       = {STANCE Working Paper Series},
  title        = {War, Performance and the Survival of Foreign Ministers},
  volume       = {2016},
  year         = {2016},
}