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Treatment of Uncertainty in Risk Based Regulations and Standards for Risk Analysis

Abrahamsson, Marcus LU (2000) In LUTVDG/TVBB--3116--SE 3116.
Abstract
The role of quantitative risk analysis as a foundation for decision making, regarding hazardous activities and establishments, has gained increased importance during the last decades. When performing a quantitative risk analysis, a wide range of uncertainties will inevitably be introduced during the process. The impact of these uncertainties must somehow be addressed if the analysis is to serve as a tool in the decision-making process. The objective of this report is to present a summary of how issues of uncertainty are dealt with in existing safety regulations, and in existing standards for risk analysis and management. Using this summary as a guide, various aspects of uncertainty are discussed. E.g. what role will uncertainty play in the... (More)
The role of quantitative risk analysis as a foundation for decision making, regarding hazardous activities and establishments, has gained increased importance during the last decades. When performing a quantitative risk analysis, a wide range of uncertainties will inevitably be introduced during the process. The impact of these uncertainties must somehow be addressed if the analysis is to serve as a tool in the decision-making process. The objective of this report is to present a summary of how issues of uncertainty are dealt with in existing safety regulations, and in existing standards for risk analysis and management. Using this summary as a guide, various aspects of uncertainty are discussed. E.g. what role will uncertainty play in the decision-making process? Is there a need for identifying and separating different kinds of uncertainty (e.g. aleatory, or stochastic uncertainty, vs. epistemic, or knowledge based uncertainty) while creating the foundation for decision-making? Will we always be dependent on expert judgement while dealing with these issues?



The work behind this paper is the first step in a research project with the objective to produce the basis for a Swedish Standard regarding treatment of uncertainties in quantitative risk analyses. The project is to be completed by the end of the year 2001. (Less)
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publication status
published
subject
in
LUTVDG/TVBB--3116--SE
volume
3116
pages
82 pages
publisher
[Publisher information missing]
ISSN
1402-3504
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2c3ae994-7109-4fad-aad2-3c8861a5466e (old id 525797)
date added to LUP
2007-09-06 11:39:32
date last changed
2016-04-16 07:05:01
@misc{2c3ae994-7109-4fad-aad2-3c8861a5466e,
  abstract     = {The role of quantitative risk analysis as a foundation for decision making, regarding hazardous activities and establishments, has gained increased importance during the last decades. When performing a quantitative risk analysis, a wide range of uncertainties will inevitably be introduced during the process. The impact of these uncertainties must somehow be addressed if the analysis is to serve as a tool in the decision-making process. The objective of this report is to present a summary of how issues of uncertainty are dealt with in existing safety regulations, and in existing standards for risk analysis and management. Using this summary as a guide, various aspects of uncertainty are discussed. E.g. what role will uncertainty play in the decision-making process? Is there a need for identifying and separating different kinds of uncertainty (e.g. aleatory, or stochastic uncertainty, vs. epistemic, or knowledge based uncertainty) while creating the foundation for decision-making? Will we always be dependent on expert judgement while dealing with these issues? <br/><br>
<br/><br>
The work behind this paper is the first step in a research project with the objective to produce the basis for a Swedish Standard regarding treatment of uncertainties in quantitative risk analyses. The project is to be completed by the end of the year 2001.},
  author       = {Abrahamsson, Marcus},
  issn         = {1402-3504},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {82},
  publisher    = {ARRAY(0x9469c60)},
  series       = {LUTVDG/TVBB--3116--SE},
  title        = {Treatment of Uncertainty in Risk Based Regulations and Standards for Risk Analysis},
  volume       = {3116},
  year         = {2000},
}