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A statistical downscaling algorithm for thermal comfort applications

Rayner, D.P.; Lindberg, Fredrik; Thorsson, Sofia and Holmer, Björn (2014) In Theoretical and Applied Climatology Epub ahead of print.
Abstract
We describe a new two-step modeling framework for investigating the impact of climate change on human comfort in outdoor urban environments. In the first step, climate change scenarios for air temperature and solar radiation (global, diffuse, direct components) are created using a change-factor algorithm. The change factors are calculated by comparing ranked daily regional climate model outputs for a future-period and a present-day period, and then changesconsistent with these daily change factors are applied to historical hourly climate observations. In the second step, themean-radiant-temperature (Tmrt) is calculated using the SOLWEIG (SOlar and LongWave Environmental IrradianceGeometry) model. Tmrt, which describes the radiant heat... (More)
We describe a new two-step modeling framework for investigating the impact of climate change on human comfort in outdoor urban environments. In the first step, climate change scenarios for air temperature and solar radiation (global, diffuse, direct components) are created using a change-factor algorithm. The change factors are calculated by comparing ranked daily regional climate model outputs for a future-period and a present-day period, and then changesconsistent with these daily change factors are applied to historical hourly climate observations. In the second step, themean-radiant-temperature (Tmrt) is calculated using the SOLWEIG (SOlar and LongWave Environmental IrradianceGeometry) model. Tmrt, which describes the radiant heat exchange between a person and their surroundings, is one of the most important meteorologically derived parameters governing human energy balance and outdoor thermal comfort, especially during warm and sunny days.We demonstrate that change factors can be applied independently to maximum air temperature and daily global solar radiation, and show thatthe outputs from the algorithm, when aggregated to daily values, are consistent with the driving regional climate model.Finally, we demonstrate how to obtain quantitative information from the scenarios regarding the potential impact of climate change on outdoor thermal comfort, by calculating changes in the distribution of hourly summer day-time Tmrt and changes in the number of hours with Tmrt >55 °C. (Less)
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author
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
volume
Epub ahead of print
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • Scopus:84944280748
ISSN
1434-4483
DOI
10.1007/s00704-014-1329-2
project
MERGE
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
a2f6a07f-c931-46b1-b9db-7f1a1f698ff9 (old id 7515398)
date added to LUP
2015-07-08 14:51:03
date last changed
2016-11-06 04:25:29
@misc{a2f6a07f-c931-46b1-b9db-7f1a1f698ff9,
  abstract     = {We describe a new two-step modeling framework for investigating the impact of climate change on human comfort in outdoor urban environments. In the first step, climate change scenarios for air temperature and solar radiation (global, diffuse, direct components) are created using a change-factor algorithm. The change factors are calculated by comparing ranked daily regional climate model outputs for a future-period and a present-day period, and then changesconsistent with these daily change factors are applied to historical hourly climate observations. In the second step, themean-radiant-temperature (Tmrt) is calculated using the SOLWEIG (SOlar and LongWave Environmental IrradianceGeometry) model. Tmrt, which describes the radiant heat exchange between a person and their surroundings, is one of the most important meteorologically derived parameters governing human energy balance and outdoor thermal comfort, especially during warm and sunny days.We demonstrate that change factors can be applied independently to maximum air temperature and daily global solar radiation, and show thatthe outputs from the algorithm, when aggregated to daily values, are consistent with the driving regional climate model.Finally, we demonstrate how to obtain quantitative information from the scenarios regarding the potential impact of climate change on outdoor thermal comfort, by calculating changes in the distribution of hourly summer day-time Tmrt and changes in the number of hours with Tmrt >55 °C.},
  author       = {Rayner, D.P. and Lindberg, Fredrik and Thorsson, Sofia and Holmer, Björn},
  issn         = {1434-4483},
  language     = {eng},
  publisher    = {ARRAY(0x8ee80b8)},
  series       = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  title        = {A statistical downscaling algorithm for thermal comfort applications},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1329-2},
  volume       = {Epub ahead of print},
  year         = {2014},
}