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Does Practical deliberation Crowd Out Self-Prediction?

Rabinowicz, Wlodek LU (2002) In Erkenntnis 57. p.91-122
Abstract
It is a popular view that practical deliberation excludes foreknowledge of one’s choice. Wolfgang Spohn and Isaac Levi have argued that not even probabilistic self-prediction is available to the deliberator, if subjective probabilities are conceptually linked to betting rates. It does not make sense to have a betting rate for an option, since one’s willingness to bet depends in this case on the option’s utility in combination with the net gain from the bet, rather than on the offered odds. Even apart from this consideration, assigning probabilities to one’s options is futile since such probabilities could be of no possible use in choice. The paper subjects these arguments to critical examination and suggests that, appearances... (More)
It is a popular view that practical deliberation excludes foreknowledge of one’s choice. Wolfgang Spohn and Isaac Levi have argued that not even probabilistic self-prediction is available to the deliberator, if subjective probabilities are conceptually linked to betting rates. It does not make sense to have a betting rate for an option, since one’s willingness to bet depends in this case on the option’s utility in combination with the net gain from the bet, rather than on the offered odds. Even apart from this consideration, assigning probabilities to one’s options is futile since such probabilities could be of no possible use in choice. The paper subjects these arguments to critical examination and suggests that, appearances notwithstanding, practical deliberation might well involve predictions about its outcome. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Erkenntnis
volume
57
pages
91 - 122
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • WOS:000178656100005
  • Scopus:18644374352
ISSN
1572-8420
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
3104e547-643d-49d1-a170-2dc86b337bb0 (old id 773573)
date added to LUP
2008-01-28 09:01:54
date last changed
2016-10-13 04:48:58
@misc{3104e547-643d-49d1-a170-2dc86b337bb0,
  abstract     = {It is a popular view that practical deliberation excludes foreknowledge of one’s choice. Wolfgang Spohn and Isaac Levi have argued that not even probabilistic self-prediction is available to the deliberator, if subjective probabilities are conceptually linked to betting rates. It does not make sense to have a betting rate for an option, since one’s willingness to bet depends in this case on the option’s utility in combination with the net gain from the bet, rather than on the offered odds. Even apart from this consideration, assigning probabilities to one’s options is futile since such probabilities could be of no possible use in choice. The paper subjects these arguments to critical examination and suggests that, appearances notwithstanding, practical deliberation might well involve predictions about its outcome.},
  author       = {Rabinowicz, Wlodek},
  issn         = {1572-8420},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {91--122},
  publisher    = {ARRAY(0xba97088)},
  series       = {Erkenntnis},
  title        = {Does Practical deliberation Crowd Out Self-Prediction?},
  volume       = {57},
  year         = {2002},
}