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Realism in actor’s and observers confidence judgments: The effect of considering the actor’s arguments and/or confidence

Allwood, Carl Martin LU and Johansson, Marcus LU (2003) SPUDM19, Biannual Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making
Abstract
The present study investigated the difference between Actors’ and Observers’ realism in confidence and frequency judgments of general knowledge assertions, and how types of information given to the Observers about the Actors’ choice of answers affect that difference in the realism in confidence judgments. In general, compared with the Actors, the Observers showed higher accuracy and higher confidence. When no additional information was given, the Observers showed lower overconfidence than the Actors did. However, this difference did not remain when the Observers were provided with the Actors’ conceived best argument for, and/or rated confidence in, the Actors’ choice. In addition, Observers provided only with the Actors’ arguments showed... (More)
The present study investigated the difference between Actors’ and Observers’ realism in confidence and frequency judgments of general knowledge assertions, and how types of information given to the Observers about the Actors’ choice of answers affect that difference in the realism in confidence judgments. In general, compared with the Actors, the Observers showed higher accuracy and higher confidence. When no additional information was given, the Observers showed lower overconfidence than the Actors did. However, this difference did not remain when the Observers were provided with the Actors’ conceived best argument for, and/or rated confidence in, the Actors’ choice. In addition, Observers provided only with the Actors’ arguments showed poorer calibration and higher confidence than those provided with arguments and confidence judgments and those provided with confidence judgments only. These results are discussed in relation to previous calibration research, the unpacking hypo­thesis of Support theory and a version of the information richness hypothesis. The results also showed that the frequency judgment of one’s own overall accuracy was lower and less realistic than that of the other’s accuracy. (Less)
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Contribution to conference
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published
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conference name
SPUDM19, Biannual Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
4477b97f-5afa-44f5-846f-8ca93b9e362b (old id 807081)
date added to LUP
2008-01-09 16:09:10
date last changed
2016-04-16 12:13:39
@misc{4477b97f-5afa-44f5-846f-8ca93b9e362b,
  abstract     = {The present study investigated the difference between Actors’ and Observers’ realism in confidence and frequency judgments of general knowledge assertions, and how types of information given to the Observers about the Actors’ choice of answers affect that difference in the realism in confidence judgments. In general, compared with the Actors, the Observers showed higher accuracy and higher confidence. When no additional information was given, the Observers showed lower overconfidence than the Actors did. However, this difference did not remain when the Observers were provided with the Actors’ conceived best argument for, and/or rated confidence in, the Actors’ choice. In addition, Observers provided only with the Actors’ arguments showed poorer calibration and higher confidence than those provided with arguments and confidence judgments and those provided with confidence judgments only. These results are discussed in relation to previous calibration research, the unpacking hypo­thesis of Support theory and a version of the information richness hypothesis. The results also showed that the frequency judgment of one’s own overall accuracy was lower and less realistic than that of the other’s accuracy.},
  author       = {Allwood, Carl Martin and Johansson, Marcus},
  language     = {eng},
  title        = {Realism in actor’s and observers confidence judgments: The effect of considering the actor’s arguments and/or confidence},
  year         = {2003},
}