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The El Niño – La Niña cycle and recent trends in supply and demand of net primary productivity in African drylands

Abdi, Hakim LU ; Yengoh, Genesis Tambang LU ; Seaquist, Jonathan LU ; Ardö, Jonas LU ; Vrieling, Anton LU ; Anyamba, A. and Ummenhofer, Caroline C. (2016) In Climatic Change 138(1). p.111-125
Abstract

Inter-annual climatic variability over a large portion of sub-Saharan Africa is under the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Extreme variability in climate is a threat to rural livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, yet the role of ENSO in the balance between supply and demand of net primary productivity (NPP) over this region is unclear. Here, we analyze the impact of ENSO on this balance in a spatially explicit framework using gridded population data from the WorldPop project, satellite-derived data on NPP supply, and statistical data from the United Nations. Our analyses demonstrate that between 2000 and 2013 fluctuations in the supply of NPP associated with moderate ENSO events average ± 2.8 g C m−2... (More)

Inter-annual climatic variability over a large portion of sub-Saharan Africa is under the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Extreme variability in climate is a threat to rural livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, yet the role of ENSO in the balance between supply and demand of net primary productivity (NPP) over this region is unclear. Here, we analyze the impact of ENSO on this balance in a spatially explicit framework using gridded population data from the WorldPop project, satellite-derived data on NPP supply, and statistical data from the United Nations. Our analyses demonstrate that between 2000 and 2013 fluctuations in the supply of NPP associated with moderate ENSO events average ± 2.8 g C m−2 yr.−1 across sub-Saharan drylands. The greatest sensitivity is in arid Southern Africa where a + 1 °C change in the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature index is associated with a mean change in NPP supply of −6.6 g C m−2 yr.−1. Concurrently, the population-driven trend in NPP demand averages 3.5 g C m−2 yr.−1 over the entire region with densely populated urban areas exhibiting the highest mean demand for NPP. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for the role ENSO plays in modulating the balance between supply and demand of NPP in sub-Saharan drylands. An important implication of these findings is that increase in NPP demand for socio-economic metabolism must be taken into account within the context of climate-modulated supply.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Climate variability, Drylands, El Niño-southern oscillation, Net primary productivity, Sub-Saharan Africa
in
Climatic Change
volume
138
issue
1
pages
15 pages
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • Scopus:84976521901
ISSN
0165-0009
DOI
10.1007/s10584-016-1730-1
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
b5a84680-3a3d-48b1-8c31-d70a18a142e7
date added to LUP
2016-07-15 12:12:10
date last changed
2016-11-28 13:20:57
@misc{b5a84680-3a3d-48b1-8c31-d70a18a142e7,
  abstract     = {<p>Inter-annual climatic variability over a large portion of sub-Saharan Africa is under the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Extreme variability in climate is a threat to rural livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, yet the role of ENSO in the balance between supply and demand of net primary productivity (NPP) over this region is unclear. Here, we analyze the impact of ENSO on this balance in a spatially explicit framework using gridded population data from the WorldPop project, satellite-derived data on NPP supply, and statistical data from the United Nations. Our analyses demonstrate that between 2000 and 2013 fluctuations in the supply of NPP associated with moderate ENSO events average ± 2.8 g C m<sup>−2</sup> yr.<sup>−1</sup> across sub-Saharan drylands. The greatest sensitivity is in arid Southern Africa where a + 1 °C change in the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature index is associated with a mean change in NPP supply of −6.6 g C m<sup>−2</sup> yr.<sup>−1</sup>. Concurrently, the population-driven trend in NPP demand averages 3.5 g C m<sup>−2</sup> yr.<sup>−1</sup> over the entire region with densely populated urban areas exhibiting the highest mean demand for NPP. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for the role ENSO plays in modulating the balance between supply and demand of NPP in sub-Saharan drylands. An important implication of these findings is that increase in NPP demand for socio-economic metabolism must be taken into account within the context of climate-modulated supply.</p>},
  author       = {Abdi, Hakim and Yengoh, Genesis Tambang and Seaquist, Jonathan and Ardö, Jonas and Vrieling, Anton and Anyamba, A. and Ummenhofer, Caroline C.},
  issn         = {0165-0009},
  keyword      = {Climate variability,Drylands,El Niño-southern oscillation,Net primary productivity,Sub-Saharan Africa},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {07},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {111--125},
  publisher    = {ARRAY(0x9854d80)},
  series       = {Climatic Change},
  title        = {The El Niño – La Niña cycle and recent trends in supply and demand of net primary productivity in African drylands},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1730-1},
  volume       = {138},
  year         = {2016},
}