1.1 61 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published general 4 Matthias Baumann author Volker C. Radeloff author Vahagn Avedian author 538285ca-95a9-4284-b153-1a83dd1f8c7f Tobias Kuemmerle author History v1000057 department Socioeconomic shocks can shape future land-use trajectories. Armed conflicts are an extreme form of a socioeconomic shock, but our understanding of how armed conflicts affect land-use change is limited. Our goal was to assess land-use changes related to the 1991–1994 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Caucasus region. We classified multi-temporal Landsat imagery, mapped land-use changes during and after the conflict, and applied matching statistics to isolate the effect of the conflict from other potential drivers of land change. In our study area, local land-use changes were dominated by high farmland abandonment rates of more than 60 % in the conflict zone. Concomitantly, we found a substantial displacement of agricultural activities into nearby Azerbaijani territory (&gt;30 % of all abandoned land in the conflict zone was offset by new agricultural areas on Azerbaijani territory), likely as a consequence of refugee migrations. After the armed conflict ceased, only 17 % of the abandoned fields were re-cultivated, indicating that the land-use system may have transformed profoundly. Our results showed that an armed conflict can have substantial impact on land use. Spatially, our results indicated that armed conflicts may cause lasting land-use change in areas distant from the actual battlegrounds, representing an example of a distant linkage in land systems, in our case caused by refugee movements. Temporally, armed conflicts appear to be able to cause a transition of the land-use system into a new state, akin to other drastic socioeconomic shocks. https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/0f6b8326-2c68-4c17-8e7c-07663f3ac284 Springer Science and Business Media B.V., Springer 2015 eng Armenia Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh Land-use change Landsat Coarsened exact matching Local and displaced land-use change Warfare Armed conflicts History http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-014-0728-3 yes 1436-3798 4856460 000365082400018 84947024979 10.1007/s10113-014-0728-3 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0728-3 yes 15 8 1703 1716 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84947024979 Published online ahead of print 03 Dec 2014 0f6b8326-2c68-4c17-8e7c-07663f3ac284 2016-04-01T09:48:17+02:00 2026-06-02T22:26:25+02:00 2016-04-01T09:48:17+02:00 1 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 4 Anamika Barua author Katyaini Suparana author Bhuben Mili author Pernille Gooch author f3e92cf3-9c2b-4958-9ef9-a2accbf58c35 Human Ecology v1000679 department The rural mountain communities have long<br/><br> faced challenges from a range of social, economic, political<br/><br> and environmental factors and the threat from these factors<br/><br> has only intensified due to the current climate change. This<br/><br> study was conducted in South Sikkim, a mountain region<br/><br> located in the Indian Eastern Himalaya, to get a deeper<br/><br> insight of the multitude of barriers and stresses that a poor<br/><br> rural mountain community experiences. The purpose of the<br/><br> study was to get community’s perception on the kind of<br/><br> interventions that they consider important to lift them out<br/><br> of poverty and enhance their resilience to manage climate<br/><br> risk. The analysis is based on focus group discussions and<br/><br> household survey, using a multidimensional poverty<br/><br> assessment tool. The study highlights that the vulnerability<br/><br> of the study region to climate change is not concentrated to<br/><br> physical or geographical factors alone, but mostly to the<br/><br> socio-economic factors like lack of access to education,<br/><br> health care, limited livelihood opportunities, limited<br/><br> resources, etc. People consider that these non-climatic<br/><br> factors act as barriers for them to overcome poverty, contribute<br/><br> to their weak resilience, and make it extremely<br/><br> difficult for them to manage the risk posed by climate<br/><br> change. The study therefore suggests that it is of utmost<br/><br> importance that the interventions are planned in ways that<br/><br> address the multidimensional poverty in the region which<br/><br> in turn will enhance community’s inherent capacity to<br/><br> adapt to current as well as future climate risk. https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/05b19f94-1006-46d2-8cd8-dea25e961934 Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2014 eng poverty climate change multidimensional poverty assessment tool resilience Social and Economic Geography 1436-3798 4387710 000333261900022 84893642978 10.1007/s10113-013-0471-1 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0471-1 yes 14 1 267 280 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84893642978 05b19f94-1006-46d2-8cd8-dea25e961934 2016-04-01T10:05:15+02:00 2025-10-14T11:45:18+02:00 2016-04-01T10:05:15+02:00 2 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 25 Daniela Jacob author Juliana Petersen author Bastian Eggert author Antoinette Alias author Ole Bøssing Christensen author Laurens M Bouwer author Alain Braun author Augustin Colette author Michel Déqué author Goran Georgievski author Elena Georgopoulou author Andreas Gobiet author Laurent Menut author Grigory Nikulin author Andreas Haensler author Nils Hempelmann author Colin Jones author Klaus Keuler author Sari Kovats author Nico Kröner author Sven Kotlarski author Arne Kriegsmann author Eric Martin author Erik van Meijgaard author Christopher Moseley author https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/b03db602-ab2f-4c3c-9155-a89499a774ca Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2013 eng Earth and Related Environmental Sciences 1436-3798 4356549 84897025478 10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2 yes 1 16 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84897025478 yes b03db602-ab2f-4c3c-9155-a89499a774ca 2016-04-01T10:10:03+02:00 2025-10-14T09:38:31+02:00 2016-04-01T10:10:03+02:00 3 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 6 Silke Gabbert author Martin Van Ittersum author Carolien Kroeze author Serge Stalpers author Frank Ewert author Johanna Alkan Olsson author 1e445810-54df-4c7c-a0fd-bb2a87848aff LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies) v1000928 department Integrated Assessment (IA) models aim at providing information- and decision-support to complex problems. This paper argues that uncertainty analysis in IA models should be user-driven in order to strengthen science–policy interaction. We suggest an approach to uncertainty analysis that starts with investigating model users’ demands for uncertainty information. These demands are called “uncertainty information needs”. Identifying model users’ uncertainty information needs allows focusing the analysis on those uncertainties which users consider relevant and meaningful. As an illustrative example, we discuss the case of examining users’ uncertainty information needs in the SEAMLESS Integrated Framework (SEAMLESS-IF), an IA model chain for assessing and comparing alternative agricultural and environmental policy options. The most important user group of SEAMLESS-IF are policy experts at the European and national level. Uncertainty information needs of this user group were examined in an interactive process during the development of SEAMLESS-IF and by using a questionnaire. Results indicate that users’ information requirements differed from the uncertainty categories considered most relevant by model developers. In particular, policy experts called for addressing a broader set of uncertainty sources (e.g. model structure and technical model setup). The findings highlight that investigating users’ uncertainty information needs is an essential step towards creating confidence in an IA model and its outcomes. This alone, however, may not be sufficient for effectively implementing a user-oriented uncertainty analysis in such models. As the case study illustrates, it requires to include uncertainty analysis into user participation from the outset of the IA modelling process. https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/3a79f408-4ff0-45c5-a74a-711df78c9f7d Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2010 eng SEAMLESS Integrated Framework Uncertainty information needs Integrated Assessment models Effective uncertainty analysis Science-policy interaction Other Social Sciences 1436-3798 1616625 000278096700005 77953025380 10.1007/s10113-009-0100-1 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-009-0100-1 10 2 131 143 12 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/77953025380 3a79f408-4ff0-45c5-a74a-711df78c9f7d 2016-04-01T10:37:05+02:00 2025-10-14T12:19:12+02:00 2016-04-01T10:37:05+02:00 4 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 2 Ing-Marie Gren author Monica Campos author 622285c3-45e2-4a44-9a1d-a7f65d11247b Centre for Analysis and Synthesis v1000651 department This paper investigates the explanatory power of development, prosperity and regulatory capability as proximate causes of non-indigenous species (NIS) occurrence in different countries, doing this by statistically analysing a global cross-sectional data set. Since the quantification of development is subject to much discussion, two different indicators are tested: gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the United Nations human development index (HDI). A corruption index is used as an indicator of regulatory capacity. In addition, variables capturing country openness, which facilitates NIS introduction, and habitat conditions, which determine NIS establishment, are included as explanatory variables. The GDP indicator together with the corruption index fits the NIS data best, where the number of NIS is higher in countries with larger incomes. However, countries with relatively high income but low institutional capacity show a larger number of NIS than countries with a similar level of income but with higher institutional capacity. The results also point to the significant contributions of openness and habitat fragmentation to NIS occurrences in the countries. https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/d32d64fa-100e-4f9f-8356-5cdb023c2757 Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2011 eng Non-indigenous species Development Openness Habitat conditions Econometric test Global scale Organic Chemistry 1436-3798 2160992 000294058800013 80051938550 10.1007/s10113-010-0183-8 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0183-8 yes 11 3 593 601 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/80051938550 The information about affiliations in this record was updated in December 2015. The record was previously connected to the following departments: Organic chemistry (S/LTH) (011001240) d32d64fa-100e-4f9f-8356-5cdb023c2757 2016-04-01T10:43:22+02:00 2025-10-14T09:32:04+02:00 2016-04-01T10:43:22+02:00 5 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 2 Simon Wagura Ndiritu author Wilfred Nyangena author https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/7882ab8c-4781-4882-985f-f312bc7a9bf6 Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2011 eng Earth and Related Environmental Sciences 1436-3798 4448922 80051916834 11 3 531 542 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/80051916834 yes 7882ab8c-4781-4882-985f-f312bc7a9bf6 2016-04-04T14:36:48+02:00 2025-10-14T11:44:21+02:00 2016-04-04T14:36:48+02:00 6 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 9 Angelica Feurdean author Catalina Munteanu author Tobias Kuemmerle author Anne B. Nielsen author b88e525f-02c2-4140-9b48-5273f285235d Simon M. Hutchinson author Eszter Ruprecht author Catherine L. Parr author Aurel Perşoiu author Thomas Hickler author fb05def1-885d-4ada-9049-cf7ee09ead83 Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science v1000639 department Quaternary Sciences v1000638 department MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system v1000618 department BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate v1000616 department <p>Traditional farming landscapes in the temperate zone that have persisted for millennia can be exceptionally species-rich and are therefore key conservation targets. In contrast to Europe’s West, Eastern Europe harbours widespread traditional farming landscapes, but drastic socio-economic and political changes in the twentieth century are likely to have impacted these landscapes profoundly. We reconstructed long-term land-use/cover and biodiversity changes over the last 150 years in a traditional farming landscape of outstanding species diversity in Transylvania. We used the Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites model applied to a pollen record from the Transylvanian Plain and a suite of historical and satellite-based maps. We documented widespread changes in the extent and location of grassland and cropland, a loss of wood pastures as well as a gradual increase in forest extent. Land management in the socialist period (1947–1989) led to grassland expansion, but grassland diversity decreased due to intensive production. Land-use intensity has declined since the collapse of socialism in 1989, resulting in widespread cropland abandonment and conversion to grassland. However, these trends may be temporary due to both ongoing woody encroachment as well as grassland management intensification in productive areas. Remarkably, only 8% of all grasslands existed throughout the entire time period (1860–2010), highlighting the importance of land-use history when identifying target areas for conservation, given that old-growth grasslands are most valuable in terms of biodiversity. Combining datasets from different disciplines can yield important additional insights into dynamic landscape and biodiversity changes, informing conservation actions to maintain these species-rich landscapes in the longer term.</p> https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/75e8e71f-a593-4eaf-bbd6-ecb8804d5f1a Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2017-12 eng Biodiversity Central-eastern Europe Conservation Farmland abandonment Forest regeneration Semi-natural grasslands Socio-economic change Woody pastures Physical Geography Environmental Sciences and Nature Conservation (including Biodiversity) 1436-3798 84995784788 000415136200002 10.1007/s10113-016-1063-7 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1063-7 yes 17 8 2193 2207 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84995784788 75e8e71f-a593-4eaf-bbd6-ecb8804d5f1a 2016-12-02T14:25:25+01:00 2026-04-06T10:13:44+02:00 2016-12-02T14:25:25+01:00 7 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 2 Sofia Henriques author 5efbdbea-afe9-4ce6-a987-b9cbe1d65469 Paul Warde author Department of Economic History v1000022 department The 1870–1914 globalization period had profound impacts on the international division of labour, with coal-endowed countries specializing in the production of energy-intensive manufacturing goods and others in the production of agricultural goods. This study analyses the environmental consequences of this specialization, by quantifying the flows of energy and hidden energy embodied in the bilateral trade between the UK, the industrial workshop of the world, and Denmark, a coal-poor country with an agricultural economy. We show that the transformations that occurred in Danish agriculture to meet the growing demand for breakfast foods in the UK required significant quantities of feed and coal. Denmark was a net importer of energy throughout the period and a net importer of hidden energy in 1870. However, by the end of this wave of globalization, Denmark had become a significant net exporter of hidden energy to the UK. This was due both to an increase in its land productivity and to the import of coal, grain and fertilizers from abroad. https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/3a7c32a3-7bc7-4a85-a8fa-3273259fe65a Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2018-04 eng Economic History 1436-3798 85019662037 10.1007/s10113-017-1166-9 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1166-9 18 4 965 977 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85019662037 3a7c32a3-7bc7-4a85-a8fa-3273259fe65a 2017-04-22T20:20:52+02:00 2025-10-14T13:02:46+02:00 2017-04-22T20:20:52+02:00 8 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 3 Björn Nykvist author Sara Borgström author Emily Boyd author 3a415474-5b8c-4bca-a669-a11e2fd48eb8 LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies) v1000928 department <p>Adaptive and multi-level governance is often called for in order to improve the management of complex issues such as the provision of natural resources and ecosystem services. In this case study, we analyse the contemporary multi-level governance system that manages water resources and its ecosystem services in a fresh water lake in Sweden. We assess the relative importance and barriers of three commonly highlighted components of adaptive governance: “feeding ecological knowledge into the governance system”, “use of ecological knowledge to continuously adapt the governance system”, and “self-organisation by flexible institutions acting across multiple levels”. Findings reveal that the trickiest aspect of adaptive governance capacity to institutionalise is the iterative nature of feedbacks and learning over time, and that barriers to the spread of knowledge on social-ecological complexity through the governance systems are partly political, partly complexity itself, and partly a more easily resolved lack of coordination. We call for caution in trusting crisis management to build more long-lasting adaptive capacity, and we conclude that a process of institutionalising adaptive capacity is inherently contingent on political process putting issues on the agenda.</p> https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/47c7f317-5f40-4a26-9b24-e83c9500318c Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2017-12 eng Adaptive capacity Ecological knowledge Ecosystem services Management Multi-level governance Watershed Environmental Management 1436-3798 85019192116 000415136200015 10.1007/s10113-017-1149-x http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1149-x yes 17 8 2359 2371 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85019192116 47c7f317-5f40-4a26-9b24-e83c9500318c 2017-05-30T07:47:03+02:00 2026-05-13T14:00:58+02:00 2017-05-30T07:47:03+02:00 9 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 5 Hens Runhaar author Bettina Wilk author Åsa Persson author Caroline Uittenbroek author Christine Wamsler author 7b29fc32-3cef-4cc0-a641-541fb57533dd LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies) v1000928 department <p>Adaptation to a changing climate is unavoidable. Mainstreaming climate adaptation objectives into existing policies, as opposed to developing dedicated adaptation policy, is widely advocated for public action. However, knowledge on what makes mainstreaming effective is scarce and fragmented. Against this background, this paper takes stock of peer-reviewed empirical analyses of climate adaptation mainstreaming, in order to assess current achievements and identify the critical factors that render mainstreaming effective. The results show that although in most cases adaptation policy outputs are identified, only in a minority of cases this translates into policy outcomes. This “implementation gap” is most strongly seen in developing countries. However, when it comes to the effectiveness of outcomes, we found no difference across countries. We conclude that more explicit definitions and unified frameworks for adaptation mainstreaming research are required to allow for future research syntheses and well-informed policy recommendations.</p> https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/d0715745-4cdd-42c7-9f15-fa062b8457da Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2018-04 eng Climate change adaptation Climate policy integration Mainstreaming State-of-the-art Systematic literature review Human Geography Climate Science 1436-3798 85035135812 10.1007/s10113-017-1259-5 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1259-5 18 4 1201 1210 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85035135812 d0715745-4cdd-42c7-9f15-fa062b8457da 2017-12-07T14:45:37+01:00 2025-10-14T13:01:58+02:00 2017-12-07T14:45:37+01:00 10 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 12 Ariane Walz author Katja Schmidt author Ana Ruiz-Frau author Kimberly A. Nicholas author 9addf4ef-2410-43a8-8097-0b108f370def Adéline Bierry author Aster de Vries Lentsch author Apostol Dyankov author Deirdre Joyce author Anja H. Liski author Nuria Marbà author Ines T. Rosário author Samantha S.K. Scholte author LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies) v1000928 department BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate v1000616 department <p>Sociocultural valuation (SCV) of ecosystem services (ES) discloses the principles, importance or preferences expressed by people towards nature. Although ES research has increasingly addressed sociocultural values in past years, little effort has been made to systematically review the components of sociocultural valuation applications for different decision contexts (i.e. awareness raising, accounting, priority setting, litigation and instrument design). In this analysis, we investigate the characteristics of 48 different sociocultural valuation applications—characterised by unique combinations of decision context, methods, data collection formats and participants—across ten European case studies. Our findings show that raising awareness for the sociocultural value of ES by capturing people’s perspective and establishing the status quo, was found the most frequent decision context in case studies, followed by priority setting and instrument development. Accounting and litigation issues were not addressed in any of the applications. We reveal that applications for particular decision contexts are methodologically similar, and that decision contexts determine the choice of methods, data collection formats and participants involved. Therefore, we conclude that understanding the decision context is a critical first step to designing and carrying out fit-for-purpose sociocultural valuation of ES in operational ecosystem management.</p> https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/14d75c0a-5ab3-41c1-9a73-5941497e1ea6 Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2019-06-20 eng Ecosystem services Local-to-regional scale Operational use Sociocultural valuation Environmental Sciences 1436-3798 85068177860 10.1007/s10113-019-01506-7 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01506-7 19 8 2245 2259 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85068177860 14d75c0a-5ab3-41c1-9a73-5941497e1ea6 2019-07-10T12:58:01+02:00 2026-03-07T12:09:37+01:00 2019-07-10T12:58:01+02:00 11 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 3 Erik Nilsson author 10d643ee-4297-4e8a-9112-a83e29e0ae94 Per Becker author 18b9c383-1686-4c82-8b50-63b0cc471802 Cintia Bertacchi Uvo author eefaf654-2751-4265-9cc9-c5d70b45ca0d Division of Water Resources Engineering v1000225 department Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety v1000224 department The countries in the Sahel are undergoing rapid changes due to a mixture of demographic, ecological, and economic transformations. Rural livelihoods in these countries are predominantly engaged in agriculture, which is a foundational component of both food security and the general economy. The relationships between ongoing socio-economic transformation and the agricultural sector are clearly important to address poverty and sustainable development, but have received little academic attention on a subnational level of analysis. This paper addresses this by bringing together new datasets on demography, international aid, food security reports, and soil moisture to analyze the drivers of change in the agricultural sector on a subnational level in Chad. Both regression analyses and qualitative methods based on descriptions in food security reports are used to evaluate the relationships between these datasets to agricultural statistics for the period 1990–2016. It finds that changes to crop water availability from rainfall largely are decoupled from the long-term increases in crop production. On the other hand, it shows that population changes and international aid can explain differences in long-term agricultural changes between Chad’s regions. Moreover, stochastic factors such as farm support programs, market prices, access to new markets, and accommodation of refugees are identified as important to grasp abrupt changes in the crop production. Beyond the specific findings for Chad, this study presents a framework for improved evaluation of the drivers behind subnational crop production on multi-annual and decadal time scales, with broad applicability to agricultural systems in the Sahel. https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/a737e559-9e86-4ee8-b31e-7d6230200836 https://portal.research.lu.se/files/81009542/Nilsson_et_al._2020_Drivers_of_abrupt_and_gradual_changes_in_agricultu.pdf application/pdf 2208320 no Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2020-06 eng Agricultural production Population International aid Livelihood analysis Soil moisture Sahel Economic History Environmental Sciences and Nature Conservation (including Biodiversity) 1436-3798 85086598905 10.1007/s10113-020-01668-9 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01668-9 20 75 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85086598905 a737e559-9e86-4ee8-b31e-7d6230200836 2020-06-25T07:57:45+02:00 2025-10-14T11:49:11+02:00 2020-06-25T07:57:45+02:00 12 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 8 Jonathan Edward Ensor author Kirsten Elizabeth Abernethy author Eric Timothy Hoddy author 139fa1b2-0cbb-4616-8b04-2e610ecca238 Shankar Aswani author Simon Albert author Ismael Vaccaro author Jason Jon Benedict author Douglas James Beare author Community-based approaches are pursued in recognition of the need for place-based responses to environmental change that integrate local understandings of risk and vulnerability. Yet the potential for fair adaptation is intimately linked to how variations in perceptions of environmental change and risk are treated. There is, however, little empirical evidence of the extent and nature of variations in risk perception in and between multiple community settings. Here, we rely on data from 231 semi-structured interviews conducted in nine communities in Western Province, Solomon Islands, to statistically model different perceptions of risk and change within and between communities. Overall, people were found to be less likely to perceive environmental changes in the marine environment than they were for terrestrial systems. The distance to the nearest market town (which may be a proxy for exposure to commercial logging and degree of involvement with the market economy), and gender had the greatest overall statistical effects on perceptions of risk. Yet, we also find that significant environmental change is underreported in communities, while variations in perception are not always easily related to commonly assumed fault lines of vulnerability. The findings suggest that there is an urgent need for methods that engage with the drivers of perceptions as part of community-based approaches. In particular, it is important to explicitly account for place, complexity and diversity of environmental risk perceptions, and we reinforce calls to engage seriously with underlying questions of power, culture, identity and practice that influence adaptive capacity and risk perception. https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/a991945b-cbf5-4fb1-97fa-39a00aaa8289 Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2018-04-01 eng Adaptation plan Community-based adaptation Fairness Risk perception Solomon Islands Climate change Human Geography http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-017-1242-1 1436-3798 85034226759 10.1007/s10113-017-1242-1 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1242-1 18 4 1131 1143 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85034226759 yes a991945b-cbf5-4fb1-97fa-39a00aaa8289 2021-03-08T14:46:21+01:00 2025-10-14T11:51:59+02:00 2021-03-08T14:46:21+01:00 13 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 5 Sameh Adib Abou Rafee author c383e03c-4a3c-4913-ac7a-22774f61615d Edmilson Dias de Freitas author Jorge Alberto Martins author 56b7f522-b29e-4d51-8d7b-792df2ce1e46 Carolyne Bueno Machado author Cintia Bertacchi Uvo author eefaf654-2751-4265-9cc9-c5d70b45ca0d Division of Water Resources Engineering v1000225 department <p>The Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB) has undergone remarkable land use and cover changes (LUCC) in recent decades. This paper analyses the hydrologic response to LUCC in the UPRB between 1985 and 2015, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The impacts of LUCC were examined for annual, wet, and dry season (both during calibrated and validated periods) between 1984 and 2015. The most substantial LUCC were the extensive reduction of the cerrado and the expansion of agriculture areas. The simulations demonstrated that the LUCC caused important changes in basin hydrology. For instance, an increase (decrease) of surface runoff in the wet (dry) season at most UPRB subbasins was observed. In addition, the simulation results revealed a reduction in actual evapotranspiration and an increase in soil moisture in the annual and wet season. Consequently, most of the major rivers of the basin presented an increase (decrease) in their discharge in the wet (dry) period. The major changes in the hydrologic components were observed in the central-western and southern parts of the UPRB. At the river mouth of the UPRB, the LUCC led to an increase in long-term mean discharge values of 4.2% and 1.1% in the annual and wet season and a decrease of about 2.2% in the dry period. This study provides a large-scale modeling and valuable information that could be used to improve planning and sustainable management of future water resources within the basin.</p> https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/c4a31882-9599-4d7a-8f88-bda6258ca68e Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2021-12 eng Actual evapotranspiration Discharge Large-scale modeling Soil moisture Surface runoff SWAT model Water Engineering 1436-3798 85117938502 10.1007/s10113-021-01827-6 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01827-6 yes 21 4 112 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85117938502 Funding Information: This study was financed in part by the “Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior–Brasil” (CAPES)–Finance Code 001 (Process # 88887.115875/2015-01) and “Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo” FAPESP (process #2015/03804-9). The authors would like to gratefully acknowledge “Agência Nacional de Águas” (ANA) by providing the precipitation and discharge data. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. c4a31882-9599-4d7a-8f88-bda6258ca68e 2021-11-15T12:43:37+01:00 2025-10-14T10:55:30+02:00 2021-11-15T12:43:37+01:00 14 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 21 Lutz Merbold author Robert J. Scholes author Manuel Acosta author Johannes Beck author Antonio Bombelli author Bjoern Fiedler author Elisa Grieco author Joerg Helmschrot author Wim Hugo author Ville Kasurinen author Dong Gill Kim author Arne Körtzinger author Sonja Leitner author Ana López-Ballesteros author Mylene Ndisi author Aecia Nickless author Emmanuel Salmon author Matthew Saunders author Ingunn Skjelvan author Alexander T. Vermeulen author 0801020f-908b-48d0-b043-387e995f3aab Werner L. Kutsch author Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science v1000639 department <p>Global population projections foresee the biggest increase to occur in Africa with most of the available uncultivated land to ensure food security remaining on the continent. Simultaneously, greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise due to ongoing land use change, industrialisation, and transport amongst other reasons with Africa becoming a major emitter of greenhouse gases globally. However, distinct knowledge on greenhouse gas emissions sources and sinks as well as their variability remains largely unknown caused by its vast size and diversity and an according lack of observations across the continent. Thus, an environmental research infrastructure—as being setup in other regions—is more needed than ever. Here, we present the results of a design study that developed a blueprint for establishing such an environmental research infrastructure in Africa. The blueprint comprises an inventory of already existing observations, the spatial disaggregation of locations that will enable to reduce the uncertainty in climate forcing’s in Africa and globally as well as an overall estimated cost for such an endeavour of about 550 M€ over the next 30 years. We further highlight the importance of the development of an e-infrastructure, the necessity for capacity development and the inclusion of all stakeholders to ensure African ownership.</p> https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/131ca1dc-f3de-481e-8912-f4fad23162cd Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2021 eng Carbon dioxide Climate Environmental research infrastructure Methane Nitrous oxide Environmental Sciences 1436-3798 85117295920 10.1007/s10113-021-01823-w http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01823-w 21 4 104 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85117295920 131ca1dc-f3de-481e-8912-f4fad23162cd 2021-12-16T15:50:19+01:00 2025-10-14T11:47:27+02:00 2021-12-16T15:50:19+01:00 15 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 3 David Harnesk author 87529fe2-eafa-4f1e-b387-587bce7f5715 Didac Pascual author ff37a995-7f50-4cd4-b9b2-0d52befb2d21 Lennart Olsson author 3026cb27-98ea-41f3-b4ea-e52bc1c2ca2f LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies) v1000928 department MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system v1000618 department BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate v1000616 department Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science v1000639 department The impacts of climate change on rural cultures and livelihoods depend on how the resulting complex biophysical processes <br> may transform people’s land use practices. We argue that research can incorporate local concerns of compound hazards through deterministic rather than probabilistic approaches to better understand the multiple causations involved in such <br> climate change impacts. We apply mixed methods within a storyline approach to examine how a forest reindeer herding <br> community in Northern Sweden copes with and experiences basal ice formation on their winter pasturelands under the infuence of climatic and environmental change. Our results show that the detrimental impact of basal ice formation on the availability of winter forage for reindeer is amplifed by the directional efects of climate change and encroachments, especially <br> particular forestry practices and their surrounding infrastructure. On the one hand, we show that policy action can address <br> local concerns through ecological interventions that improve the amount and distribution of ground and pendulous lichens <br> at the pastoral landscape scale. On the other hand, we show that policy inaction can threaten the community’s desired experience of human-animal relations in their landscape, which was inextricably connected to ecological conditions for natural <br> pasture-based reindeer pastoralism https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/79c57176-8ecf-496b-bdd8-1bd1b8d32dc4 Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2023-10-04 eng Climate Science 1436-3798 85173734345 10.1007/s10113-023-02122-2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-023-02122-2 23 4 1 1 14 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85173734345 79c57176-8ecf-496b-bdd8-1bd1b8d32dc4 2023-10-04T15:17:54+02:00 2026-03-01T01:36:01+01:00 2023-10-04T15:17:54+02:00 16 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 5 Ronaldo Adriano Alves author Anderson Paulo Rudke author Sueli Tavares de Melo Souza author Mauricio Moreira dos Santos author Jorge Alberto Martins author 56b7f522-b29e-4d51-8d7b-792df2ce1e46 Division of Water Resources Engineering v1000225 department <p>Flooding is one of the main social impacts in urban areas, especially in larger, densely impermeable cities. Therefore, developing studies capable of identifying areas that are vulnerable to this type of event is crucial to provide early warning and a quick and effective response to reduce damages. Thus, this study sought to identify areas vulnerable to flood in the Igapó Lake Basin, a densely urbanized area in Lodrina city, southern Brazil. The methodology was based on four main steps: (1) basin characterization, (2) elaboration of the conditioning factors of the flooding by using the analysis hierarchical process (AHP), (3) vulnerability analysis in the GIS environment, (4) and model sensitivity analysis. The parameters considered in this study were as follows: flow concentration, land use, slope, distance from the discharge channel, and altimetry. The proposed methodology has proven to be robust in identifying flood-vulnerable areas. The results revealed that approximately 3.1 km² (10.3%) of the basin are considered areas of high or very high vulnerability to flood events, affecting many residential buildings, the most abundant land use class in the investigated area. In conclusion, this study sheds light on the intricate interplay between vulnerability to flooding, land use changes, urban development patterns, and resilience measures, offering valuable insights for policymakers and urban planners striving to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events.</p> https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/175ff175-100f-47dd-b687-ea4b3e171625 Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2024-09 eng Decision support tool Flood vulnerability mapping Flooding Stormwater Urban drainage systems Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology 1436-3798 85195537487 10.1007/s10113-024-02258-9 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-024-02258-9 yes 24 3 96 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85195537487 175ff175-100f-47dd-b687-ea4b3e171625 2024-07-02T15:09:35+02:00 2025-10-14T13:09:43+02:00 2024-07-02T15:09:35+02:00 17 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 5 Kelly Dorkenoo author c26b5685-55bf-44fd-8119-49444236ce3a Monin Nong author Joel Persson author Navin Chea author Murray Scown author a1849f6c-ca2f-4cdf-a3dc-f4213b5d3a8c LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies) v1000928 department BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate v1000616 department <p>The uneven burden of climate-related losses and damages and its implications for equity and social justice are receiving growing attention in science and policy. Smallholder farmers, indigenous groups, and ethnic minorities are often identified as particularly vulnerable and likely to experience a greater burden of climate-related loss and damage. However, limited attention has been paid to experiences of climate-related loss and damage in contexts of agrarian change and related struggles, especially around land. In this paper, we analyse experiences of climate-related loss amongst smallholder farmers in Ratanakiri province, northeast Cambodia. We derive an analytical framework from political economy of vulnerability and sociology of loss to explain farmers’ sense of loss from climate change and foreground intangible dimensions of climate-related loss. We use a mixed-methods approach with a hierarchical regression analysis of a household survey (n = 295), individual interviews, and focus group discussions across eleven villages. We find that a higher number of livelihood activities, greater values related to land, types of negative impacts experienced, and stronger perception of changes in extreme weather events are associated with a greater sense of loss. Meanwhile, a higher ability to repay loans and secure land tenure is associated with a lower sense of loss. Our results demonstrate how experiential, relational, and normative dimensions of climate-related loss are co-produced through processes of agrarian change such as financialization and histories of land struggles (i.e. through debt failure and fear of loss of access to land). This study contributes a deeper understanding of people’s lived experiences of loss arising from climate change impacts in agrarian contexts and their implications for climate justice.</p> https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/54ca6a23-9b62-432f-a936-aebb24cc40d6 Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2024-12 eng Agrarian change Cambodia Climate change Climate justice Loss and damage Human Geography 1436-3798 85207520588 10.1007/s10113-024-02314-4 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-024-02314-4 24 4 161 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85207520588 54ca6a23-9b62-432f-a936-aebb24cc40d6 2024-12-04T13:20:21+01:00 2026-03-13T05:56:53+01:00 2024-12-04T13:20:21+01:00 18 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 4 David Harnesk author 87529fe2-eafa-4f1e-b387-587bce7f5715 Nina Baron author Rico Kongsager author Sara Heidenreich author LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies) v1000928 department LU Profile Area: Human rights v1001530 department BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate v1000616 department Climate Change Resilience in Small Communities in the Nordic Countries project The ability of people to act on their knowledge of their surrounding physical environments before, in response to, and after impactful climate-related hazards is shaped by broader environmental and socio-economic conditions. We present a multiple case study that illustrates how people from both non-Indigenous and Indigenous communities living in remote areas in the Nordic countries maintain and adapt their hazard-related Indigenous and local knowledge (ILK). The four communities that we followed through qualitative, fieldwork-based research are characterized by a strong attachment to place, a developed sense of place, and high exposure to climate-related hazards. The hazard-related ILK of people in these communities is integrated into place-based everyday practices in the physical environment and includes helping others in the community. Our research highlights that people maintain their ILK in several ways: through intergenerational relations with family and friends; by adopting place-based cultural practices into everyday life; by relating to past experience and historical events; and through community inclusion. However, adapting this knowledge to their surrounding conditions is challenged by compounding pressures of environmental and socio-economic change. Given that knowledge claims may be incommensurable, we highlight different approaches to the question of which of the various values found in ILK could be deemed relevant for policy development. Whether the policy objective is to support the practical application of ILK or the cultural diversity it represents, we underline the need for greater theorization regarding the deeper structural drivers that shape local agency, if such goals are to be reached more effectively. https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/ae5de184-a659-4a21-8ac0-827f485a6cfd Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2025-01-01 eng Human Geography 1436-3798 85212787104 10.1007/s10113-024-02342-0 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-024-02342-0 25 10 13 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85212787104 ae5de184-a659-4a21-8ac0-827f485a6cfd 2025-01-08T07:22:37+01:00 2026-03-06T17:28:48+01:00 2025-01-08T07:22:37+01:00 19 info:srw/schema/1/mods-v3.3xml journalArticle published yes 4 Alicia N'guetta author 3ebe9b7d-2f4e-4a1e-957e-8eea44583c0f Emily Boyd author 3a415474-5b8c-4bca-a669-a11e2fd48eb8 Torsten Krause author 8256b44c-b528-412d-8857-d60cd8273b34 Guy Jackson author LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies) v1000928 department BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate v1000616 department Lund university sustainability forum v1000617 department LU Profile Area: Nature-based future solutions v1001534 department Constructing Narratives of Loss and Damage: Framing, Experiences, and Governance in Tropical Fisheries through Blue Justice project Climate change loss and damage research and policy includes biodiversity loss as a non-economic loss and damage. Yet there is scant understanding of what is loss and damage in tropical fisheries and how it is measured. We conduct the first systematic review of loss and damage in fisheries. The study uses a qualitative interpretivist values–based lens to examine fishers’ intrinsic, instrumental, and relational values in the literature. A systematic review was carried out on the interdisciplinary literature on fisheries in 2022–2023. Guided by criteria and questions, we identified 11 case studies that fit the criteria for loss and damage in fisheries (17% of total literature identified). All 11 cases reported economic loss and damage (e.g. income and fisheries catch). Many studies have reported non-economic loss and damage (e.g. loss of ecosystem services and species (82%), food security and health (82%), mobility (19%)). The results also show that loss and damage in fisheries are valued in a relational way to fishers’ livelihood, way of life, and well-being through for example loss of social and emotional well-being (73%), sense of belonging (36%), and identity (27%). Several studies underscore socioeconomic, political, and environmental drivers that intersect locally with climate change, such as overfishing and pollution (55%), or failure of international policies and development aid (37%). We suggest the current international policy framing of loss and damage risks undermining the understanding of local fishers’ everyday experience and argue for plural and inclusive ways of knowing and valuing loss and damage in fisheries. https://portal.research.lu.se/en/publications/643d2f0d-5954-4d70-9939-ff7c439f3d9e Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2025 eng Other Social Sciences 1436-3798 85219684031 10.1007/s10113-025-02374-0 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-025-02374-0 25 36 https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85219684031 643d2f0d-5954-4d70-9939-ff7c439f3d9e 2025-02-25T16:26:57+01:00 2026-03-08T09:06:31+01:00 2025-02-25T16:26:57+01:00 20 1.1issn any "1436-3798 1943-3530"issnany1436-3798 1943-3530