@misc{8b4501a2-c36c-40dc-af3c-aa0d7e98141a,
  abstract     = {{This study investigates the long-term social consequences of early-life exposure to adverse<br/>conditions in nineteenth-century Poznań. Using linked individual-level records from the<br/>Poznań Historical Population Database for birth cohorts 1830–1855, we examine how<br/>prenatal stress, infant mortality, early-childhood disease burden, and fluctuations in rye prices<br/>influenced the likelihood of marriage and intergenerational social mobility at first marriage,<br/>up to age 45. Logistic regression models indicate that adverse prenatal conditions, proxied by<br/>a low sex ratio at birth, and high rye price in the first year of life significantly decreased the<br/>probability of entering marriage. Unexpectedly, high rye prices during gestation were<br/>associated with a higher likelihood of marriage, suggesting that more resilient individuals may<br/>have been more likely to survive. Analyses of social mobility at first marriage show limited<br/>overall changes in status, consistent with positive selection into marriage, although<br/>individuals exposed to disease in early childhood were less likely to experience downward<br/>mobility. These findings highlight the complex interplay of scarring and selection<br/>mechanisms through which early-life adversity shaped demographic and socioeconomic<br/>outcomes. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of family formation and social<br/>stratification in urban Europe}},
  author       = {{Antosik, Szymon and Bengtsson, Tommy and Antosik, Piotr and Liczbińska, Grażyna}},
  keywords     = {{Environmental Stressors; Marriage market; Social Mobility; Nineteenth-century urban history; Central and Eastern Europe}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Working Paper}},
  number       = {{2026:1}},
  series       = {{Lund Papers in Economic Demography}},
  title        = {{Adverse Early-Life Conditions and Their Impact on the Marriage Market and Social Mobility: The Poznań Birth Cohort, 1830–1855}},
  url          = {{https://www.lusem.lu.se/sites/lusem.lu.se/files/2026-02/LPED%202026%201.pdf}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}