@misc{c686636e-c363-4509-bf08-b0c259189f49,
  abstract     = {{There is currently widespread concern that rapid technological change will funda-<br/>mentally change the nature of work. In this paper we show that, despite 140 years of<br/>technological change, more than 70 percent of employment today is located in occu-<br/>pations whose core economic functions already existed in the late nineteenth century.<br/>Full-count Swedish census and administrative data from 1880 to 2019, harmonized<br/>to five-digit HISCO, let us observe how many people work in each occupation. This<br/>yields far greater occupational persistence than when new work is inferred from the<br/>appearance of new job titles. To characterize the new work that does emerge, we dis-<br/>tinguish Schumpeterian occupations, tied directly to new technology, from Smithian<br/>occupations, arising from a deeper division of labor. Most new work is Smithian.<br/>Schumpeterian occupations, on the other hand, remain small and unstable, with an<br/>increasingly older workforce, and it is specialization, not technology or newness, that<br/>commands the largest earnings premium. Technology sustains employment less by ex-<br/>panding technological occupations than by creating the scale on which specialization<br/>depends.}},
  author       = {{Skoglund, William and Molinder, Jakob and Enflo, Kerstin}},
  keywords     = {{New work; occupational structure; technological change; division of labor; HISCO: long-run labor markets; J16; J21; J24; N33; N34; O33}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{09}},
  note         = {{Working Paper}},
  number       = {{2026:273}},
  series       = {{Lund Papers in Economic History}},
  title        = {{What the history of (new) jobs can tell us about the impact of technological change on employment}},
  url          = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/261080691/LUPEH_273.pdf}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}