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Integrated Modelling Approach for Critical Infrastructure and Societal Consequences: Mitigation Decisions from a Power System and Inoperability Input-Output Perspective

Svegrup, Linn LU ; Johansson, Jonas LU and Hassel, Henrik LU (2016) In Risk Analysis: an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Abstract
Critical infrastructures provide society with services essential to it’s functioning and extensive disruptions of these create large societal consequences. Risk and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures generally focus narrowly on the infrastructure of interest and describe the consequences as non-supplied commodities (e.g. water, power) or the cost of unsupplied commodities, but rarely holistically consider the consequences for society. However, from a societal perspective, this narrow focus may lead to severe underestimation of the negative effects of infrastructure disruptions. In this paper we analyse and contrast how a narrower infrastructure or a more holistic societal perspective affect risk and vulnerability related... (More)
Critical infrastructures provide society with services essential to it’s functioning and extensive disruptions of these create large societal consequences. Risk and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures generally focus narrowly on the infrastructure of interest and describe the consequences as non-supplied commodities (e.g. water, power) or the cost of unsupplied commodities, but rarely holistically consider the consequences for society. However, from a societal perspective, this narrow focus may lead to severe underestimation of the negative effects of infrastructure disruptions. In this paper we analyse and contrast how a narrower infrastructure or a more holistic societal perspective affect risk and vulnerability related decisions regarding critical infrastructures. To this end we propose an integrated modelling approach, combining models of critical infrastructures and inoperability input-output models (IIM). The approach is demonstrated in a case study with a representative model of the Swedish power transmission system and using national economic accounts. Two decision-contexts related to prioritizing between different vulnerability reducing measures is considered (identifying critical components and adding system components). We conclude that taking a societal perspective when analysing infrastructure vulnerability reducing measures is important, in particular when identifying critical components to protect and to a lesser extent when ranking improvement measures in terms of adding system components, but could be of importance if under budgetary constraints, e.g. if only a limited amount of improvements can be implemented, or when deciding the priority order of which measures to implement when, given that large scale infrastructure improvement projects operates in the time-horizon of up to decades. (Less)
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organization
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type
Contribution to journal
publication status
submitted
subject
keywords
Critical infrastructures, Decisions, IIM, Societal consequences, Power system, vulnerability, Sweden
in
Risk Analysis: an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
publisher
John Wiley & Sons
ISSN
1539-6924
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
f311729a-0d05-4fe0-a30f-b1da08d35c9f
date added to LUP
2016-10-20 11:30:01
date last changed
2017-02-01 16:08:11
@article{f311729a-0d05-4fe0-a30f-b1da08d35c9f,
  abstract     = {Critical infrastructures provide society with services essential to it’s functioning and extensive disruptions of these create large societal consequences. Risk and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures generally focus narrowly on the infrastructure of interest and describe the consequences as non-supplied commodities (e.g. water, power) or the cost of unsupplied commodities, but rarely holistically consider the consequences for society. However, from a societal perspective, this narrow focus may lead to severe underestimation of the negative effects of infrastructure disruptions. In this paper we analyse and contrast how a narrower infrastructure or a more holistic societal perspective affect risk and vulnerability related decisions regarding critical infrastructures. To this end we propose an integrated modelling approach, combining models of critical infrastructures and inoperability input-output models (IIM). The approach is demonstrated in a case study with a representative model of the Swedish power transmission system and using national economic accounts. Two decision-contexts related to prioritizing between different vulnerability reducing measures is considered (identifying critical components and adding system components).  We conclude that taking a societal perspective when analysing infrastructure vulnerability reducing measures is important, in particular when identifying critical components to protect and to a lesser extent when ranking improvement measures in terms of adding system components, but could be of importance if under budgetary constraints, e.g. if only a limited amount of improvements can be implemented, or when deciding the priority order of which measures to implement when, given that large scale infrastructure improvement projects operates in the time-horizon of up to decades.},
  author       = {Svegrup, Linn and Johansson, Jonas and Hassel, Henrik},
  issn         = {1539-6924},
  keyword      = {Critical infrastructures,Decisions,IIM,Societal consequences,Power system,vulnerability,Sweden},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {09},
  publisher    = {John Wiley & Sons},
  series       = {Risk Analysis:  an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis},
  title        = {Integrated Modelling Approach for Critical Infrastructure and Societal Consequences: Mitigation Decisions from a Power System and Inoperability Input-Output Perspective},
  year         = {2016},
}