@misc{9234561,
  abstract     = {{Since 2018, the Swedish housing market has exhibited a paradoxical development in which a persistent housing shortage coexists with increasing vacancies. The simultaneous progression of these seemingly anti-correlated trends raises important questions regarding the functioning of the residential real estate sector. This thesis examines why the residential Swedish rental market continues to produce dwellings that do not correspond to effective demand, analyzing how market mechanisms, institutional conditions, and stakeholder incentives interact in the emergence and persistence of vacancies.

The study employs a qualitative research approach combining previous research, government inquiries, public reports, and academic literature with empirical material collected through semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. The analysis focuses on how institutional regulations and changing market conditions shape investment behavior and housing production in the Swedish housing market. Particular emphasis is placed on regulated rents, the municipal planning monopoly, rising production costs, and shifting financial conditions characterized by increasing interest rates and changing demand patterns.

The findings suggest a structural divergence within the Swedish housing market rather than a conventional market imbalance between supply and demand. The analysis identifies an increasingly segmented rental housing market in which the older rental stock and newly produced rental housing operate according to different economic conditions and demand structures, despite formally constituting the same product category. Regulated rents in the older housing stock sustain excess demand and long housing queues by maintaining comparatively low rent levels, particularly in centrally located and highly attractive areas. In contrast, newly produced rental apartments are typically associated with substantially higher rent levels and are often located in more peripheral areas where land acquisition is less costly, and planning processes are more accessible. The considerable differences reveal that excess demand in the older regulated rental stock does not translate into effective demand for newly produced rental housing, contributing to vacancies and localized oversupply in the new-build segment. At the same time, property owners face strong incentives to maintain these rent levels in the newly produced stock. Rent reductions would negatively affect property valuations and expected returns. Consequently, the market becomes constrained by both institutional price ceilings and valuation-driven price floors, limiting the ability of price mechanisms to efficiently balance supply and demand across different segments of the housing market.

At the same time, the study shows that the current imbalances are not solely structural in nature but are also reinforced by cyclical economic conditions. The weak demand for newly produced rental housing is closely linked to the recent recession, which was characterized by high inflation, rising interest rates, and constrained household incomes, and has since evolved into a period of economic stagnation. As the broader economy recover and generate improved purchasing power, market actors expect demand to strengthen and the current oversupply to gradually be absorbed. These developments suggest that the cyclical factors currently suppressing demand may ease over time. However, uncertainty remains regarding the extent to which such a recovery will resolve the underlying segmentation between older and newly produced rental housing. In conclusion, the study demonstrates that the observed paradox is the result of both institutional frameworks and macroeconomic factors. While institutional frameworks create the underlying conditions for these imbalances, the broader economic climate influences their scale and visibility over time.}},
  author       = {{Ebbersten, Bianca and Chudi, Rebecca}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Bostadsbrist - men ingen vill flytta in?}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}