@misc{9238372,
  abstract     = {{Waste-to-energy (WtE) is a cornerstone of the Swedish district heating system, yet it faces significant challenges due to climate targets and the transition towards a circular economy. The purpose of this thesis is to analyse how the amount of plastic directed to incineration may change up until the year 2045, and how this, in turn, affects the conditions for waste-to-energy. 
The study analyses this challenge at two levels: a national system perspective, where plastics pose a barrier to Sweden's climate goals, and a local perspective focused on Jönköping Energi, where altered waste flows create both economic and environmental uncertainties.

Results from the literature analysis indicate that current policy instruments are insufficient to achieve the necessary reduction of plastic in waste streams required to meet the 2045 climate targets. In general, a greater focus needs to be placed on the production and consumption of plastic products, and the costs for emissions and waste management should be shifted to producers to create incentives for product improvements. Furthermore, while numerous measures along the plastic life cycle can contribute to reducing fossil emissions at the waste-to-energy plant, various economic and systemic barriers have hindered their implementation. The future development is directly dependent on the efficiency of future policy instruments in overcoming these barriers. 

At the local level, the amount of plastic in the waste has a direct impact on the climate impact of Jönköping Energi’s waste incineration plant, as the combustion of plastic generates fossil emissions. Simultaneously, the plastic content affects the economy through increased costs for emission allowances, operations, maintenance, and waste residue management. In the future, the price of emission allowances is expected to increase, which in turn will contribute to large cost increases for the facility. If no improvements are made and fossil emissions continue to rise, Jönköping Energi's emission allowance costs risk increasing by over 800 % by 2045. At the same time, decreasing plastic volumes results in the facility needing to incinerate higher total waste volumes to maintain its energy capacity. To fully understand the future conditions for waste-to-energy, it is essential to put these results in relation to a broader system analysis, considering factors such as the future development of the energy system and the availability of waste streams.}},
  author       = {{Kjellström, Hanna}},
  issn         = {{1102-3651}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Plastmängdernas påverkan på framtidens energiåtervinning: En analys av nationella trender och lokala förutsättningar}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}