@misc{9245544,
  abstract     = {{This study investigates whether cultural risk preferences moderate the relationship between macroeconomic shocks — namely inflation, unemployment, and GDP contraction — and fertility across 76 developed and developing countries over the period 2000–2023. Drawing on the Becker–Tomes quantity–quality framework extended with a precautionary saving channel, I argue that more risk-averse societies treat the irreversible commitment of childbearing as a larger effective resource loss when faced with economic uncertainty, producing stronger fertility responses to adverse shocks. Using two-way fixed-effects panel regressions, I find that inflation and unemployment robustly reduce total fertility rates, while cultural risk tolerance significantly buffers the negative fertility response to labour-market instability. This moderating role is concentrated among middle- and high-income countries, where precautionary motives are most operative, and is robust across multiple specification checks. These findings provide strong evidence that pro-natalist policies targeting the sources of economic uncertainty could play a meaningful role in limiting the fertility costs of macroeconomic downturns.}},
  author       = {{Giorgi, Chiara}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Are Children a Risky Investment? How Cultural Risk Preferences Shape Fertility Responses to Macroeconomic Shocks}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}