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Partisan Macroeconomic Preferences and the Diversionary Use of Force in The United Kingdom 1971-2000

Sundin, Ludvig LU (2014) STVK01 20141
Department of Political Science
Abstract
This thesis explores the diversionary use of force in the context of The United Kingdom. Building on theory that suggests that diversionary tactics are most likely when domestic turmoil affects the core constituents of the incumbent party, I operationalize domestic turmoil as macroeconomic conditions that disfavor the core constituents of the incumbent party and test its effects on the initiation, or threat of, force towards other countries through logistic regression models and time-series data from The United Kingdom, 1971-2000. I find strong support for the hypothesis that high inflation during times of Conservative government increases the likelihood of initiation of force but fail to establish a causal relationship between high... (More)
This thesis explores the diversionary use of force in the context of The United Kingdom. Building on theory that suggests that diversionary tactics are most likely when domestic turmoil affects the core constituents of the incumbent party, I operationalize domestic turmoil as macroeconomic conditions that disfavor the core constituents of the incumbent party and test its effects on the initiation, or threat of, force towards other countries through logistic regression models and time-series data from The United Kingdom, 1971-2000. I find strong support for the hypothesis that high inflation during times of Conservative government increases the likelihood of initiation of force but fail to establish a causal relationship between high unemployment during times of Labour government and the initiation of force. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Sundin, Ludvig LU
supervisor
organization
course
STVK01 20141
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Diversionary Theory, Inflation, Unemployment, Partisan Macroeconomic Preferences, Scapegoating, Rally ‘Round the Flag Effect
language
English
id
4586850
date added to LUP
2014-09-17 13:30:24
date last changed
2014-09-17 13:30:24
@misc{4586850,
  abstract     = {{This thesis explores the diversionary use of force in the context of The United Kingdom. Building on theory that suggests that diversionary tactics are most likely when domestic turmoil affects the core constituents of the incumbent party, I operationalize domestic turmoil as macroeconomic conditions that disfavor the core constituents of the incumbent party and test its effects on the initiation, or threat of, force towards other countries through logistic regression models and time-series data from The United Kingdom, 1971-2000. I find strong support for the hypothesis that high inflation during times of Conservative government increases the likelihood of initiation of force but fail to establish a causal relationship between high unemployment during times of Labour government and the initiation of force.}},
  author       = {{Sundin, Ludvig}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Partisan Macroeconomic Preferences and the Diversionary Use of Force in The United Kingdom 1971-2000}},
  year         = {{2014}},
}