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World Business Cycles over Time and Scale

Almerud, Jakob (2010)
Department of Economics
Abstract
By transmissions of economic shocks from one country to another and through non-country specific shocks, the GDP growth of all countries might be more correlated than ever. This should have significant impact on individual countries’ stabilization policy. Therefore we want to know if there exists a world common cycle in output. To get more information about the cause for existence of these cycles we also investigate earlier periods. The time set is divided into three periods: the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods and Post-Bretton Woods. Wavelet Analysis and Principal Components are then used to investigate if common cycles are found. If they are interpretable we test them against different variables with the help of Granger-Causality tests. We... (More)
By transmissions of economic shocks from one country to another and through non-country specific shocks, the GDP growth of all countries might be more correlated than ever. This should have significant impact on individual countries’ stabilization policy. Therefore we want to know if there exists a world common cycle in output. To get more information about the cause for existence of these cycles we also investigate earlier periods. The time set is divided into three periods: the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods and Post-Bretton Woods. Wavelet Analysis and Principal Components are then used to investigate if common cycles are found. If they are interpretable we test them against different variables with the help of Granger-Causality tests. We find a world cycle in the Gold Standard period and the modern period. The Gold Standard world cycle can be explained by specie flows to the US, while we do not find any causes for world cycles in the modern period. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
@misc{1579661,
  abstract     = {By transmissions of economic shocks from one country to another and through non-country specific shocks, the GDP growth of all countries might be more correlated than ever. This should have significant impact on individual countries’ stabilization policy. Therefore we want to know if there exists a world common cycle in output. To get more information about the cause for existence of these cycles we also investigate earlier periods. The time set is divided into three periods: the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods and Post-Bretton Woods. Wavelet Analysis and Principal Components are then used to investigate if common cycles are found. If they are interpretable we test them against different variables with the help of Granger-Causality tests. We find a world cycle in the Gold Standard period and the modern period. The Gold Standard world cycle can be explained by specie flows to the US, while we do not find any causes for world cycles in the modern period.},
  author       = {Almerud, Jakob},
  keyword      = {Wavelet Analysis,World Cycles,Principal Components,Gold Standard,Bretton Woods,Specie Flows,International Business Cycles,Economics, econometrics, economic theory, economic systems, economic policy,Nationalekonomi, ekonometri, ekonomisk teori, ekonomiska system, ekonomisk politik},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {World Business Cycles over Time and Scale},
  year         = {2010},
}