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The Relationships between Canada’s Total Fertility Rate and Housing Market, 1990-2007

Neilson, Jeffrey LU (2010) EKHR01 20101
Department of Economic History
Abstract
Canada’s total fertility rate declined steadily from its peak of 3.92 children per woman in 1958 to a low of 1.49 in 2000. Since 2001 however, Canada’s TFR has increased every year, resting at 1.66 in 2007. This increase has taken place in nearly every province, and coincides with a period when real estate prices increased for 37 consecutive fiscal quarters. Although numerous studies have focused on the relationship between fertility and various economic factors, there exist few studies on the relationship between housing markets and fertility in the Canadian context. Using aggregated national and provincial data, a time series regression analysis is performed on a country level from 1976 to 2007, and a panel data regression analysis is... (More)
Canada’s total fertility rate declined steadily from its peak of 3.92 children per woman in 1958 to a low of 1.49 in 2000. Since 2001 however, Canada’s TFR has increased every year, resting at 1.66 in 2007. This increase has taken place in nearly every province, and coincides with a period when real estate prices increased for 37 consecutive fiscal quarters. Although numerous studies have focused on the relationship between fertility and various economic factors, there exist few studies on the relationship between housing markets and fertility in the Canadian context. Using aggregated national and provincial data, a time series regression analysis is performed on a country level from 1976 to 2007, and a panel data regression analysis is performed on a provincial level for the period from 1990-2007. The objective is to determine whether an association exists between housing starts, real estate price changes, and mortgage rates, in relation to fertility, also exploring whether a wealth effect during the period has influenced fertility levels. The analysis is performed for TFR as well as age-specific groups, determining that a correlation exists between fertility and several housing market indicators, but whether these are causal relationships is indeterminate. (Less)
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author
Neilson, Jeffrey LU
supervisor
organization
course
EKHR01 20101
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
fertility, TFR, housing market indicators, housing starts, wealth effect, Canada
language
English
id
1614882
date added to LUP
2010-06-21 15:21:59
date last changed
2010-06-21 15:21:59
@misc{1614882,
  abstract     = {Canada’s total fertility rate declined steadily from its peak of 3.92 children per woman in 1958 to a low of 1.49 in 2000. Since 2001 however, Canada’s TFR has increased every year, resting at 1.66 in 2007. This increase has taken place in nearly every province, and coincides with a period when real estate prices increased for 37 consecutive fiscal quarters.  Although numerous studies have focused on the relationship between fertility and various economic factors, there exist few studies on the relationship between housing markets and fertility in the Canadian context. Using aggregated national and provincial data, a time series regression analysis is performed on a country level from 1976 to 2007, and a panel data regression analysis is performed on a provincial level for the period from 1990-2007. The objective is to determine whether an association exists between housing starts, real estate price changes, and mortgage rates, in relation to fertility, also exploring whether a wealth effect during the period has influenced fertility levels. The analysis is performed for TFR as well as age-specific groups, determining that a correlation exists between fertility and several housing market indicators, but whether these are causal relationships is indeterminate.},
  author       = {Neilson, Jeffrey},
  keyword      = {fertility,TFR,housing market indicators,housing starts,wealth effect,Canada},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {The Relationships between Canada’s Total Fertility Rate and Housing Market, 1990-2007},
  year         = {2010},
}