En statistisk utvärdering av Nollvisionen – Sambandsanalys
(2010) STAK11 20101Department of Statistics
- Abstract (Swedish)
- 1997 beslutade Sveriges riksdag att lägga den så kallade ”Nollvisionen” till grund för trafiksäkerhetsarbetet i landet. Nollvisionen innebär att det skall bli säkrare för alla inblandade att vistas ute i trafiken. Man har satt upp ett mål att antalet trafikolyckor som resulterar i dödsfall och skador för livet skall minimeras. Denna målsättning vill man uppnå genom att bland annat: förbättra vägarna (bygga fler rondeller, farthinder och mitträcken), sänka hastighetsgränserna i tätorter och bidra till utvecklingen av säkrare bilar.
I den här uppsatsen undersöker vi om Nollvisionen har haft någon statistiskt signifikant effekt på vägtrafikens olycksfallsstatistik. Detta sker genom att jämföra tidsintervallet 1997 – 2008 med en tidsperiod... (More) - 1997 beslutade Sveriges riksdag att lägga den så kallade ”Nollvisionen” till grund för trafiksäkerhetsarbetet i landet. Nollvisionen innebär att det skall bli säkrare för alla inblandade att vistas ute i trafiken. Man har satt upp ett mål att antalet trafikolyckor som resulterar i dödsfall och skador för livet skall minimeras. Denna målsättning vill man uppnå genom att bland annat: förbättra vägarna (bygga fler rondeller, farthinder och mitträcken), sänka hastighetsgränserna i tätorter och bidra till utvecklingen av säkrare bilar.
I den här uppsatsen undersöker vi om Nollvisionen har haft någon statistiskt signifikant effekt på vägtrafikens olycksfallsstatistik. Detta sker genom att jämföra tidsintervallet 1997 – 2008 med en tidsperiod innan Nollvisionen introducerades. Vi använder följande beroende variabler: kön, ålder, färdsätt och skadegrad. Dessutom delar vi upp de tre förstnämnda variablerna efter graden av skada i syfte att avgöra om det föreligger skillnader i hur pass allvarligt de förolyckade skadar sig.
Vi använder oss av data från Vägverkets hemsida på Internet, materialet består av sammanlagt 123 641 observationer. Det är endast polisrapporterade olyckor som är med i våra observationer. De metoder som vi använder oss av för att pröva våra hypoteser är Pearson χ2-test och konfidensintervall. Dessa belyser förhållandena som föreligger mellan variablerna.
Av analysen framkommer: En signifikant mindre del av dem som varit inblandade i allvarliga olyckor har omkommit efter införandet av Nollvisionen. Män omkommer i högre utsträckning än kvinnor i trafikolyckor medan en större andel kvinnor skadas allvarligt. Nollvisionen har inte tydligt påverkat könsfördelningen för vägolyckor. Det absoluta antalet omkomna och svårt skadade har minskat för både män och kvinnor. Andelen yngre människor i åldrarna 0 – 24 och äldre personer över 65 år som omkom och skadades svårt har minskat. Hos människor i åldern 25 – 64 syns en signifikant ökning av andelen som är involverade i allvarliga trafikolyckor. Vi konstaterar att bilpassagerare, cyklister, gående samt mopedister är de trafikantgrupper där andelen omkomna i allvarliga trafikolyckor minskade efter Nollvisionens införande. För grupperna bilförare och motorcyklister konstateras däremot en signifikant ökning under den senare tidsperioden. Vi finner däremot ingen påvisbar förändring av antalet dödade och svårt skadade för gruppen övriga mellan de studerade tidsintervallen. Bland de svårt skadade konstateras en signifikant ökning för färdsätten bilförare och mopedister. För motorcyklisterna föreligger inte någon påvisbar förändring mellan tidsintervallen. Andelen svårt skadade gående och cyklister har minskat efter det att Nollvisionen introducerades.
Sammanfattningsvis finner vi att Nollvisionen bör anpassas för att i framtiden nå ut i ökad utsträckning till de trafikantgrupper och åldersgrupper där en ökning alternativt ingen eller endast en liten förändring av andelen allvarliga olyckor har ägt rum. (Less) - Abstract
- In the year 1997, the policy called Vision Zero (in Swedish: Nollvisionen) was introduced in Sweden. The guidelines within the policy are about making traffic and transport better as well as safer for all of those involved. This means that a goal has been set to decrease the number of serious traffic accidents where the victims are severely injured or killed. This goal is being carried out, among others, through: improving and rebuilding the roads (i.e. creating more roundabouts, speed bumps and cable barriers), lowering the speeds within the city areas and improving the safety features of vehicles.
In our thesis we are researching if having the policy in power has had any significant impact on the traffic. This is done by comparing... (More) - In the year 1997, the policy called Vision Zero (in Swedish: Nollvisionen) was introduced in Sweden. The guidelines within the policy are about making traffic and transport better as well as safer for all of those involved. This means that a goal has been set to decrease the number of serious traffic accidents where the victims are severely injured or killed. This goal is being carried out, among others, through: improving and rebuilding the roads (i.e. creating more roundabouts, speed bumps and cable barriers), lowering the speeds within the city areas and improving the safety features of vehicles.
In our thesis we are researching if having the policy in power has had any significant impact on the traffic. This is done by comparing the period 1997 - 2008 with the period 1985 - 1996. As our dependent variables we are using: gender, age, mode of travel and degree of damage. We are also dividing the observations within the first three variables by degree of damage to check for changes in the severity of accidents in which people have been involved.
Our data is taken from the Swedish Transport Administration’s website and consists of a total of 123 641 observations. The data set consists only of road accidents which have been reported by the Swedish police. As test methods, we are using Pearson χ2-statistics and confidence intervals, they allow us to check the correlation between our tested variables.
The results show that: A significantly less portion of those involved in serious road accidents have died after the introduction of Vision Zero. Men die more frequently in traffic accidents whereas women are more often heavily hurt. Vision Zero has not clearly affected the gender distribution of road accidents. A decrease in the absolute number of fatal and serious injuries is observed for both sexes. The portion of killed and seriously injured has decreased among younger people (0 – 24 years of age) as well as the elderly (65+). For road users aged 25 – 64, a significant increase in the portion of serious accidents is observed. When mode of travel is concerned, people traveling in cars as passengers, on mopeds and bicycles as well as pedestrians are those who faced a decrease in the portion of fatal road accidents. Meanwhile there is a significant increase when it comes to the portion of fatal accidents amongst car drivers and motorcyclists during the latter period. For the group “other road users”, we find no significant change in the portion of killed or seriously injured during our studied time periods. Amongst the seriously injured, a significant increase was observed for those people driving cars and mopeds. We could not find any difference originating from the new policy amongst seriously injured motorcyclists. The portion of pedestrians and cyclists who are seriously injured has decreased after the introduction of Vision Zero.
It can be said that Vision Zero needs to be adjusted to also target those types of traffic users and age-groups where an increase or little to no significant change in the number of serious traffic accidents was observed. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/1615243
- author
- Kinnunen, Robert LU and Widulinski, Piotr LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- STAK11 20101
- year
- 2010
- type
- M2 - Bachelor Degree
- subject
- keywords
- confidence interval, statistically significant effect, Vision Zero, trafikolyckor, p-värde, konfidensintervall, Pearson χ2-test, Nollvisionen, statistiskt signifikant skillnad, p-value, traffic accidents
- language
- Swedish
- id
- 1615243
- date added to LUP
- 2010-06-15 08:53:54
- date last changed
- 2010-06-15 08:53:54
@misc{1615243,
abstract = {{In the year 1997, the policy called Vision Zero (in Swedish: Nollvisionen) was introduced in Sweden. The guidelines within the policy are about making traffic and transport better as well as safer for all of those involved. This means that a goal has been set to decrease the number of serious traffic accidents where the victims are severely injured or killed. This goal is being carried out, among others, through: improving and rebuilding the roads (i.e. creating more roundabouts, speed bumps and cable barriers), lowering the speeds within the city areas and improving the safety features of vehicles.
In our thesis we are researching if having the policy in power has had any significant impact on the traffic. This is done by comparing the period 1997 - 2008 with the period 1985 - 1996. As our dependent variables we are using: gender, age, mode of travel and degree of damage. We are also dividing the observations within the first three variables by degree of damage to check for changes in the severity of accidents in which people have been involved.
Our data is taken from the Swedish Transport Administration’s website and consists of a total of 123 641 observations. The data set consists only of road accidents which have been reported by the Swedish police. As test methods, we are using Pearson χ2-statistics and confidence intervals, they allow us to check the correlation between our tested variables.
The results show that: A significantly less portion of those involved in serious road accidents have died after the introduction of Vision Zero. Men die more frequently in traffic accidents whereas women are more often heavily hurt. Vision Zero has not clearly affected the gender distribution of road accidents. A decrease in the absolute number of fatal and serious injuries is observed for both sexes. The portion of killed and seriously injured has decreased among younger people (0 – 24 years of age) as well as the elderly (65+). For road users aged 25 – 64, a significant increase in the portion of serious accidents is observed. When mode of travel is concerned, people traveling in cars as passengers, on mopeds and bicycles as well as pedestrians are those who faced a decrease in the portion of fatal road accidents. Meanwhile there is a significant increase when it comes to the portion of fatal accidents amongst car drivers and motorcyclists during the latter period. For the group “other road users”, we find no significant change in the portion of killed or seriously injured during our studied time periods. Amongst the seriously injured, a significant increase was observed for those people driving cars and mopeds. We could not find any difference originating from the new policy amongst seriously injured motorcyclists. The portion of pedestrians and cyclists who are seriously injured has decreased after the introduction of Vision Zero.
It can be said that Vision Zero needs to be adjusted to also target those types of traffic users and age-groups where an increase or little to no significant change in the number of serious traffic accidents was observed.}},
author = {{Kinnunen, Robert and Widulinski, Piotr}},
language = {{swe}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{En statistisk utvärdering av Nollvisionen – Sambandsanalys}},
year = {{2010}},
}