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Ukraine after EU's Fifth Enlargement

Jasarevic, Dinka LU (2010) NEKM01 20101
Department of Economics
Abstract
What is the impact of an enlarged regional trading area on excluded neighbouring countries propensity to export? Utilising the gravity model, this study assesses the impact of EU’s fifth enlargement on Ukraine’s propensity to export in order to explore whether Ukraine has been a bystander to EU’s fifth enlargement. The empirical gravity equation is specified to yield the Within estimate used to obtain unbiased parameters for time varying variables. The regression results suggest that Ukraine has been a very limited bystander to EU’s fifth enlargement, mainly in relation to the CEEC. The absence of evidence for the decline in the propensity to export to EU’s fifteen old member states suggests that the relative propensity to export to EU15... (More)
What is the impact of an enlarged regional trading area on excluded neighbouring countries propensity to export? Utilising the gravity model, this study assesses the impact of EU’s fifth enlargement on Ukraine’s propensity to export in order to explore whether Ukraine has been a bystander to EU’s fifth enlargement. The empirical gravity equation is specified to yield the Within estimate used to obtain unbiased parameters for time varying variables. The regression results suggest that Ukraine has been a very limited bystander to EU’s fifth enlargement, mainly in relation to the CEEC. The absence of evidence for the decline in the propensity to export to EU’s fifteen old member states suggests that the relative propensity to export to EU15 may have been strengthened due to developments in Ukraine’s political and economic ties with the EU and efforts to further internationalise trade by joining the WTO. According to the regression results, the largest decline in the propensity to export occurred towards the CIS region, most likely as a result of the continued re-orientation of exports from CIS partners and further efforts to diversify trade partners internationally. The relative decline in the propensity to export to the CEEC and the CIS is likely to have been mitigated by a corresponding increase in the propensity to export to RoW, primarily as a result of Ukraine’s efforts to join the WTO. (Less)
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author
Jasarevic, Dinka LU
supervisor
organization
alternative title
An assessment of the bystander effect on trade
course
NEKM01 20101
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
propensity to export, gravity model, EU’s Fifth Enlargement, Ukraine, bystander effect
language
English
id
1668312
date added to LUP
2010-09-13 08:15:10
date last changed
2010-09-13 08:15:10
@misc{1668312,
  abstract     = {What is the impact of an enlarged regional trading area on excluded neighbouring countries propensity to export? Utilising the gravity model, this study assesses the impact of EU’s fifth enlargement on Ukraine’s propensity to export in order to explore whether Ukraine has been a bystander to EU’s fifth enlargement. The empirical gravity equation is specified to yield the Within estimate used to obtain unbiased parameters for time varying variables. The regression results suggest that Ukraine has been a very limited bystander to EU’s fifth enlargement, mainly in relation to the CEEC. The absence of evidence for the decline in the propensity to export to EU’s fifteen old member states suggests that the relative propensity to export to EU15 may have been strengthened due to developments in Ukraine’s political and economic ties with the EU and efforts to further internationalise trade by joining the WTO. According to the regression results, the largest decline in the propensity to export occurred towards the CIS region, most likely as a result of the continued re-orientation of exports from CIS partners and further efforts to diversify trade partners internationally. The relative decline in the propensity to export to the CEEC and the CIS is likely to have been mitigated by a corresponding increase in the propensity to export to RoW, primarily as a result of Ukraine’s efforts to join the WTO.},
  author       = {Jasarevic, Dinka},
  keyword      = {propensity to export,gravity model,EU’s Fifth Enlargement,Ukraine,bystander effect},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Ukraine after EU's Fifth Enlargement},
  year         = {2010},
}