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BNP-tillväxtprognostisering - är det möjligt att förutsäga framtiden?

Andrén Sandberg, Fredrik (2009) EKHK01 20091
Department of Economic History
Abstract (Swedish)
This bachelor thesis examines the correlation between GDP growth forecasts and the actual GDP outcome the projected year, hence examines if forecasters realy can project the future or not. It concludes that the methods and models by which forecasts are produced are very similar, and hence the results are similar as well. They usually have ha mismatch around 0,9 percentage points over time for their one year projections. Their two year predictions fares even worse with mismatch of around 1,4 percentage points. The Federal Reserve concludes themselves that their long range forecasts might have no use for policy purpose whatsoever.
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author
Andrén Sandberg, Fredrik
supervisor
organization
course
EKHK01 20091
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Tillväxt, BNP, prognos, Forecast
language
Swedish
id
1857085
date added to LUP
2011-03-18 14:08:34
date last changed
2011-03-18 14:08:34
@misc{1857085,
  abstract     = {This bachelor thesis examines the correlation between GDP growth forecasts and the actual GDP outcome the projected year, hence examines if forecasters realy can project the future or not. It concludes that the methods and models by which forecasts are produced are very similar, and hence the results are similar as well. They usually have ha mismatch around 0,9 percentage points over time for their one year projections. Their two year predictions fares even worse with mismatch of around 1,4 percentage points. The Federal Reserve concludes themselves that their long range forecasts might have no use for policy purpose whatsoever.},
  author       = {Andrén Sandberg, Fredrik},
  keyword      = {Tillväxt,BNP,prognos,Forecast},
  language     = {swe},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {BNP-tillväxtprognostisering - är det möjligt att förutsäga framtiden?},
  year         = {2009},
}