Framtiden för alternativa bränslen. Marknadspotentialen för flytande metan inom lastbilsmarknaden

Abstract

Problem definition Since 1995, the vehicle-gas market has been growing at a rapid pace. One segment that has not kept up with this development is the heavy gas-powered trucks. One explanation is that the existing gas-powered trucks cannot compete against the traditional diesel trucks. Some examples of attributes that makes the gas alternative less attractive are engine power, efficiency, driving distance per tank and operational quality. Meanwhile, a new technology has been developed that allows a heavy truck to be fueled with gas and still operate with a diesel engine. The LMG-truck as it is called is a modified diesel truck powered by a mixture of methane gas and diesel. The truck is fueled with liquid methane at -160 degrees to obtain a high mileage between refueling. This product can be an opportunity for E.ON Gas to expand the business as a supplier of liquid methane.
Purpose The purpose of this study is to estimate the market potential of liquid methane as a fuel for the heavy truck sector. The secondary purpose becomes thereby to estimate the market potential of LMG-trucks by analyzing the customer market.
Method The focus of the thesis is on the customer in order to identify the factors affecting the purchasing interest and hence the market potential of the LMG-truck. A concept test is carried out in the form of qualitative interviews with truck owners to identify the parameters that will affect future sales. Thereafter a quantitative survey is performed with truck owners to assess the purchase probability of the product but also to enable a customer analysis. The next step is a market analysis of the truck industry based on secondary data to identify current trends that are affecting the market potential in the future. Finally the market survey results are combined with the market analysis results to estimate the market potential of LMG-trucks and LMG-truck-fuel.
Conclusions The product analysis indicates that the adoption rate of LMG-trucks will be low and will have a negative impact on the market potential. This means that the product life cycle will be postponed and the growth phase will be reached as late as 6-10 years after the introduction in in
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2011. The product will most likely follow a focused differentiation strategy due to the fact that it is more expensive than competing alternatives. This means that a critical success factor is the perceived value of the product from the customer point of view.
Two critical factors that influence the customer into purchasing the product are the availability of fuel stations and the profitability of the truck. Meanwhile, the physical characteristics such as loss of gas during standstills and lower carbon emissions are important as well. The purchase probability also depends on the availability of different suppliers of trucks. From a customer perspective a network of 60 fuel stations is experienced as a complete availability equivalent to that of current diesel supply.
According to the customer the functional value of the LMG-truck is lower than that of a conventional truck while the psychological value is equivalent. A high economic value becomes a necessity for the survival of the product on the market. According to the survey there are customers who would invest in the LMG-truck when the gas price offers them an adequate compensation in exchange for the lower perceived functional value. The customer analysis also shows that the majority of truck owners belong to the group that invests in late innovations. This means that the proportion who will invest in the growth phase is less than expected and the proportion who invest in the maturity phase, more than expected.
The market potential of LMG-trucks and LMG-truck-fuel depends on many factors including the time period in the future, the availability and pricing of the fuel, sales of trucks and customer innovation. These factors are primarily affecting the short-term market potential and less the long-term market potential. Long term denotes a time interval of 20-30 years ahead in the future. The long term market potential is estimated to 15% - 30% of the truck market in the study area assuming an LNG energy price of 20-40% lower than diesel. Nowadays this corresponds to 6 500-13 000 trucks or 1-2 TWh of consumed LMG.
The short-term market potential is much lower. Short term denotes the period from the introduction of the LMG-truck into the market place and 10 years thereafter. The estimated market potential by the year 2020 is approximately 200 heavier and 40 lighter LMG-trucks in traffic which represents approximately 0.3% and 0.4% of the market. The short-term market potential for LMG is estimated at approximately 50 GWh per year.

• author: Sjögren Sintikakis, Alexander
• supervisor: Ola Alexanderson
• organization: Production Management
• course: MIO920
• year: 2010
• type: M1 - University Diploma
• subject: Technology and Engineering
• keywords: market analysis, market potential, innovation, LNG, LMG
• other publication id: 10/5368
• language: Swedish
• id: 1977167
• date added to LUP: 2011-06-16 16:10:11
• date last changed: 2011-06-20 12:48:21