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On Randomness, Uncertainty, and Rare Events in Political Science

Stiernstedt, Hannes LU (2012) STVK11 20112
Department of Political Science
Abstract (Swedish)
This essay examines the implicit relationship between political science and rare events, or so called Black Swans. The purpose is to analyze Black Swan weakness by evaluating the nature of political analysis and political theories. The key to this assessment is the analysis of the predictive powers of political analysis and theories. This essay claims, on the basis of Karl Poppers historicism critique, that such predictions are impossible.
The theoretical foundation for the analysis is divided in one part to the statistical properties of rare events. Here, a distinction is made between known uncertainties and unknown uncertainties. The other part of the theoretical foundation of the analysis is the experimental evidence of empirical... (More)
This essay examines the implicit relationship between political science and rare events, or so called Black Swans. The purpose is to analyze Black Swan weakness by evaluating the nature of political analysis and political theories. The key to this assessment is the analysis of the predictive powers of political analysis and theories. This essay claims, on the basis of Karl Poppers historicism critique, that such predictions are impossible.
The theoretical foundation for the analysis is divided in one part to the statistical properties of rare events. Here, a distinction is made between known uncertainties and unknown uncertainties. The other part of the theoretical foundation of the analysis is the experimental evidence of empirical psychology.
The analysis reveals a Black Swan weakness, both in political analysis and political theories. Political analysis has a great exposure to Black Swan weakness, no matter whether the analyst is a hedgehog or a fox. Political theories have a tendency for post hoc rationalization, and display a weakness in understanding the true randomness of events and therefore underestimate the randomness of Black Swans. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Stiernstedt, Hannes LU
supervisor
organization
course
STVK11 20112
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Randomness, Uncertainty, Black Swans, Political Analysis
language
English
id
2275220
date added to LUP
2012-02-14 20:59:47
date last changed
2012-02-14 21:02:21
@misc{2275220,
  abstract     = {This essay examines the implicit relationship between political science and rare events, or so called Black Swans. The purpose is to analyze Black Swan weakness by evaluating the nature of political analysis and political theories. The key to this assessment is the analysis of the predictive powers of political analysis and theories. This essay claims, on the basis of Karl Poppers historicism critique, that such predictions are impossible. 
The theoretical foundation for the analysis is divided in one part to the statistical properties of rare events. Here, a distinction is made between known uncertainties and unknown uncertainties. The other part of the theoretical foundation of the analysis is the experimental evidence of empirical psychology.
The analysis reveals a Black Swan weakness, both in political analysis and political theories. Political analysis has a great exposure to Black Swan weakness, no matter whether the analyst is a hedgehog or a fox. Political theories have a tendency for post hoc rationalization, and display a weakness in understanding the true randomness of events and therefore underestimate the randomness of Black Swans.},
  author       = {Stiernstedt, Hannes},
  keyword      = {Randomness,Uncertainty,Black Swans,Political Analysis},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {On Randomness, Uncertainty, and Rare Events in Political Science},
  year         = {2012},
}