Strategiskt spelande för en positiv avkastning
(2012) STAH11 20112Department of Statistics
- Abstract (Swedish)
- This study compiles a total of five statistical models of how to predict the probable outcome in football games in the German football league, the Bundesliga. The models are based on quantitative historical data from 1683 games and estimate probabilities of the outcomes home win (1), draw (X) and away win (2). The purpose of the study is to test whether a more accurate prediction can be formulated with increased historical data added to the models. From this we examine if these statistical models can outperform the probabilities generated by the gambling company Digibet. It is further tested whether the models through strategic gambling may generate a positive return. The models used are based on an ordered-probit regression with 13... (More)
- This study compiles a total of five statistical models of how to predict the probable outcome in football games in the German football league, the Bundesliga. The models are based on quantitative historical data from 1683 games and estimate probabilities of the outcomes home win (1), draw (X) and away win (2). The purpose of the study is to test whether a more accurate prediction can be formulated with increased historical data added to the models. From this we examine if these statistical models can outperform the probabilities generated by the gambling company Digibet. It is further tested whether the models through strategic gambling may generate a positive return. The models used are based on an ordered-probit regression with 13 variables. In conclusion, the study shows that more historical statistical data results in a more appropriate model for prediction. However, there is no evidence to demonstrate that the statistical models can predict probabilities better than Digibet. A final conclusion is that applying strategic gambling in accordance with the model can generate a positive return. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/2338507
- author
- Wallman, Jesper LU and Demmler, Sebastian LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- STAH11 20112
- year
- 2012
- type
- M2 - Bachelor Degree
- subject
- keywords
- Odds, Bundesliga, Ordered-probit, Predict and Strategic gambling, Probability
- language
- Swedish
- id
- 2338507
- date added to LUP
- 2012-02-09 18:00:02
- date last changed
- 2012-02-09 18:00:02
@misc{2338507, abstract = {{This study compiles a total of five statistical models of how to predict the probable outcome in football games in the German football league, the Bundesliga. The models are based on quantitative historical data from 1683 games and estimate probabilities of the outcomes home win (1), draw (X) and away win (2). The purpose of the study is to test whether a more accurate prediction can be formulated with increased historical data added to the models. From this we examine if these statistical models can outperform the probabilities generated by the gambling company Digibet. It is further tested whether the models through strategic gambling may generate a positive return. The models used are based on an ordered-probit regression with 13 variables. In conclusion, the study shows that more historical statistical data results in a more appropriate model for prediction. However, there is no evidence to demonstrate that the statistical models can predict probabilities better than Digibet. A final conclusion is that applying strategic gambling in accordance with the model can generate a positive return.}}, author = {{Wallman, Jesper and Demmler, Sebastian}}, language = {{swe}}, note = {{Student Paper}}, title = {{Strategiskt spelande för en positiv avkastning}}, year = {{2012}}, }