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From Commodity Price to Economic Revival

Conradson, Johanna LU (2012) NEKH01 20121
Department of Economics
Abstract (Swedish)
The aim of the paper is to illustrate the role of commodity price fluctuations in business cycles in three countries - the United Kingdom, the United States and Sweden. The study examines data between 1993 (Q3) – 2011(Q2). The countries in this paper represent differences in economic structure – Sweden is primarily an economy characterized by the manufacturing of goods, the United Kingdom represents a smaller service economy and finally, the U.S, is a large-scale service economy.
New Keynesian Theory was used to create a multiple linear regression model – with GDP as the dependent variable on one side, and four commodity price indices, along with real interest rate as independent variables.
For each of the three countries the starting... (More)
The aim of the paper is to illustrate the role of commodity price fluctuations in business cycles in three countries - the United Kingdom, the United States and Sweden. The study examines data between 1993 (Q3) – 2011(Q2). The countries in this paper represent differences in economic structure – Sweden is primarily an economy characterized by the manufacturing of goods, the United Kingdom represents a smaller service economy and finally, the U.S, is a large-scale service economy.
New Keynesian Theory was used to create a multiple linear regression model – with GDP as the dependent variable on one side, and four commodity price indices, along with real interest rate as independent variables.
For each of the three countries the starting point was the same – all of the variables in the original regression were included in the equation that was tested in E-views. However when the regressions were modified and run with fewer variables and an extra time-lag, the amount of significant variables increased.
The results vary between the countries, indicating that the regression used in this paper, is insufficient to conclude that low commodity prices per definition lead to economic upswings during the time period. Further research within the field need to be undertaken, before any real conclusions can be drawn. (Less)
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author
Conradson, Johanna LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKH01 20121
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
New Keynesian Theory, multiple linear regression model, business cycle, supply shocks, commodity price fluctuations.
language
English
id
2629011
date added to LUP
2012-06-13 14:31:17
date last changed
2012-06-13 14:31:17
@misc{2629011,
  abstract     = {The aim of the paper is to illustrate the role of commodity price fluctuations in business cycles in three countries - the United Kingdom, the United States and Sweden. The study examines data between 1993 (Q3) – 2011(Q2). The countries in this paper represent differences in economic structure – Sweden is primarily an economy characterized by the manufacturing of goods, the United Kingdom represents a smaller service economy and finally, the U.S, is a large-scale service economy. 
New Keynesian Theory was used to create a multiple linear regression model – with GDP as the dependent variable on one side, and four commodity price indices, along with real interest rate as independent variables.
For each of the three countries the starting point was the same – all of the variables in the original regression were included in the equation that was tested in E-views. However when the regressions were modified and run with fewer variables and an extra time-lag, the amount of significant variables increased.
The results vary between the countries, indicating that the regression used in this paper, is insufficient to conclude that low commodity prices per definition lead to economic upswings during the time period. Further research within the field need to be undertaken, before any real conclusions can be drawn.},
  author       = {Conradson, Johanna},
  keyword      = {New Keynesian Theory,multiple linear regression model,business cycle,supply shocks,commodity price fluctuations.},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {From Commodity Price to Economic Revival},
  year         = {2012},
}