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Russian accession to WTO: possible effects on trade

Sokolova, Valentina LU (2012) EKHR92 20121
Department of Economic History
Abstract
Since Rose published a paper suggesting the WTO does not serve to increase the world trade, the organization has become a subject of heated debates. This question is especially important for Russia, as the country becomes the official member of the WTO soon. This dissertation extends the existed empirical evidence of the analysis of the trade outcomes as a result of joining the WTO, applying the popular gravity framework. In order to contribute to the existed literature, the current study uses a new rich panel dataset that covers information on the 61 Russian major trade partner over 11 years. The large dataset lays a foundation of consistent estimation and provides an actual picture of the expected trade effects. In order to achieve... (More)
Since Rose published a paper suggesting the WTO does not serve to increase the world trade, the organization has become a subject of heated debates. This question is especially important for Russia, as the country becomes the official member of the WTO soon. This dissertation extends the existed empirical evidence of the analysis of the trade outcomes as a result of joining the WTO, applying the popular gravity framework. In order to contribute to the existed literature, the current study uses a new rich panel dataset that covers information on the 61 Russian major trade partner over 11 years. The large dataset lays a foundation of consistent estimation and provides an actual picture of the expected trade effects. In order to achieve reliable results, the paper analyses the most common “gravity” mistakes to choose the proper methodology. To throw light on the Russia’s export and import performance, various panel regressions are estimated.
The outcomes suggest that the WTO does have a favourable impact on the international trade. Among the main Russian trade partners, the members of the WTO trade more among themselves compare to the non-WTO economies. Therefore, Russia could expect to increase its export and import with the WTO countries after accession by 10% and 14%, respectively. (Less)
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author
Sokolova, Valentina LU
supervisor
organization
course
EKHR92 20121
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Russia, WTO, gravity model, international trade
language
English
id
2855691
date added to LUP
2012-08-07 11:57:34
date last changed
2012-08-07 11:57:34
@misc{2855691,
  abstract     = {Since Rose published a paper suggesting the WTO does not serve to increase the world trade, the organization has become a subject of heated debates. This question is especially important for Russia, as the country becomes the official member of the WTO soon. This dissertation extends the existed empirical evidence of the analysis of the trade outcomes as a result of joining the WTO, applying the popular gravity framework. In order to contribute to the existed literature, the current study uses a new rich panel dataset that covers information on the 61 Russian major trade partner over 11 years. The large dataset lays a foundation of consistent estimation and provides an actual picture of the expected trade effects. In order to achieve reliable results, the paper analyses the most common “gravity” mistakes to choose the proper methodology. To throw light on the Russia’s export and import performance, various panel regressions are estimated.
The outcomes suggest that the WTO does have a favourable impact on the international trade. Among the main Russian trade partners, the members of the WTO trade more among themselves compare to the non-WTO economies. Therefore, Russia could expect to increase its export and import with the WTO countries after accession by 10% and 14%, respectively.},
  author       = {Sokolova, Valentina},
  keyword      = {Russia,WTO,gravity model,international trade},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Russian accession to WTO: possible effects on trade},
  year         = {2012},
}