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Long term variability of Swedish river discharge as represented by EC-Earth in the past and future climates

Corral Díaz, David LU and Siergieieva, Olena LU (2012) VVR820 20121
Division of Water Resources Engineering
Abstract
The aim of this study is to identify changes in pattern of long-term variability of seasonal discharge for the period 1851-2100 among four selected Swedish rivers based on output data from EC-Earth climate model.

In order to achieve the main goal and be able to analyze and compare changes in patterns of variability of water discharge for the past time period 1851-2005 and future time-period 2006-2100, discharge peaks should be represented as oscillations of frequency. This was done by means Fourier and wavelet analysis. Since data, obtained from the climate model are large-scale atmospheric variables with different units and magnitudes, they are incomparable with small-scale river discharge data. As consequence data need to be... (More)
The aim of this study is to identify changes in pattern of long-term variability of seasonal discharge for the period 1851-2100 among four selected Swedish rivers based on output data from EC-Earth climate model.

In order to achieve the main goal and be able to analyze and compare changes in patterns of variability of water discharge for the past time period 1851-2005 and future time-period 2006-2100, discharge peaks should be represented as oscillations of frequency. This was done by means Fourier and wavelet analysis. Since data, obtained from the climate model are large-scale atmospheric variables with different units and magnitudes, they are incomparable with small-scale river discharge data. As consequence data need to be downscaled and standardized, it was done by using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD).

Results imply that natural variability becomes weaker in the future and is affected by radiative forcing. According to the model results, long-term variability is expected to increase in the future, whereas short-term variability tends to disappear and becomes weaker with higher RCP. For the past period model simulations showed that long-term variability tends to decrease in frequency towards lower latitudes, whereas frequency of short-term variability is increasing in the South compared to the North of Sweden. (Less)
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author
Corral Díaz, David LU and Siergieieva, Olena LU
supervisor
organization
course
VVR820 20121
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Long term variability, climate change, downscaling, global climate model, Sweden, Fourier, wavelet
ISSN
1101-9824
language
English
id
3046963
date added to LUP
2012-09-06 11:16:47
date last changed
2012-09-06 11:16:47
@misc{3046963,
  abstract     = {The aim of this study is to identify changes in pattern of long-term variability of seasonal discharge for the period 1851-2100 among four selected Swedish rivers based on output data from EC-Earth climate model.

In order to achieve the main goal and be able to analyze and compare changes in patterns of variability of water discharge for the past time period 1851-2005 and future time-period 2006-2100, discharge peaks should be represented as oscillations of frequency. This was done by means Fourier and wavelet analysis. Since data, obtained from the climate model are large-scale atmospheric variables with different units and magnitudes, they are incomparable with small-scale river discharge data. As consequence data need to be downscaled and standardized, it was done by using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). 

Results imply that natural variability becomes weaker in the future and is affected by radiative forcing. According to the model results, long-term variability is expected to increase in the future, whereas short-term variability tends to disappear and becomes weaker with higher RCP. For the past period model simulations showed that long-term variability tends to decrease in frequency towards lower latitudes, whereas frequency of short-term variability is increasing in the South compared to the North of Sweden.},
  author       = {Corral Díaz, David and Siergieieva, Olena},
  issn         = {1101-9824},
  keyword      = {Long term variability,climate change,downscaling,global climate model,Sweden,Fourier,wavelet},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Long term variability of Swedish river discharge as represented by EC-Earth in the past and future climates},
  year         = {2012},
}