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Title: Aging of mechanical components on a modeled offshore oil & gas platform and the influence on the risk level – Incorporating renewals and surveillance

Ceylan, Erol LU and Gustafsson, Tobias LU (2013) In LUTVDG/TVBB VBR920 20131
Division of Fire Safety Engineering
Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
Abstract
Life extension of offshore oil and gas platforms has become common as new technology has made available more oil and gas. It is often profitable to continue using an aging platform instead of deploying a new one. A common practice in quantitative risk analyses performed on aging platforms is to use constant failure rates for components and ignore a potential aging effect. This thesis intends to examine how failure rates of components change on aging platforms, how component maintenance can be incorporated in risk analyses and how the location specific fatal accident rate (LSFAR) is affected by aging. A simplified platform is defined and an analytical model on aging is developed. The model includes renewal and surveillance intervals and the... (More)
Life extension of offshore oil and gas platforms has become common as new technology has made available more oil and gas. It is often profitable to continue using an aging platform instead of deploying a new one. A common practice in quantitative risk analyses performed on aging platforms is to use constant failure rates for components and ignore a potential aging effect. This thesis intends to examine how failure rates of components change on aging platforms, how component maintenance can be incorporated in risk analyses and how the location specific fatal accident rate (LSFAR) is affected by aging. A simplified platform is defined and an analytical model on aging is developed. The model includes renewal and surveillance intervals and the failure rate increase due to aging. Together with a consequence analysis, the model yields LSFAR due to hydrocarbon releases. Calculations of LSFAR carried out with and without consideration of aging are compared. The results show that LSFAR increases at most 1 %. Thus, the practice of using constant failure rates on aging platforms cannot be rejected. Because the results are based on interpolated failure data, it is associated with uncertainties. To reduce these uncertainties, case specific data should be gathered. (Less)
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author
Ceylan, Erol LU and Gustafsson, Tobias LU
supervisor
organization
course
VBR920 20131
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Aging, failure rates, FAR, gas, maintenance, surveillance, offshore, oil, production platform, QRA, renewal, risk analysis, unreliability, åldrande, felfrekvenser, underhåll, tillsyn, olja, produktionsplattform, utbyte, riskanalys, otillförlitlighet
publication/series
LUTVDG/TVBB
report number
5429
ISSN
1402-3504
language
English
id
4174736
date added to LUP
2013-11-25 10:38:12
date last changed
2014-03-10 10:40:46
@misc{4174736,
  abstract     = {Life extension of offshore oil and gas platforms has become common as new technology has made available more oil and gas. It is often profitable to continue using an aging platform instead of deploying a new one. A common practice in quantitative risk analyses performed on aging platforms is to use constant failure rates for components and ignore a potential aging effect. This thesis intends to examine how failure rates of components change on aging platforms, how component maintenance can be incorporated in risk analyses and how the location specific fatal accident rate (LSFAR) is affected by aging. A simplified platform is defined and an analytical model on aging is developed. The model includes renewal and surveillance intervals and the failure rate increase due to aging. Together with a consequence analysis, the model yields LSFAR due to hydrocarbon releases. Calculations of LSFAR carried out with and without consideration of aging are compared. The results show that LSFAR increases at most 1 %. Thus, the practice of using constant failure rates on aging platforms cannot be rejected. Because the results are based on interpolated failure data, it is associated with uncertainties. To reduce these uncertainties, case specific data should be gathered.},
  author       = {Ceylan, Erol and Gustafsson, Tobias},
  issn         = {1402-3504},
  keyword      = {Aging,failure rates,FAR,gas,maintenance,surveillance,offshore,oil,production platform,QRA,renewal,risk analysis,unreliability,åldrande,felfrekvenser,underhåll,tillsyn,olja,produktionsplattform,utbyte,riskanalys,otillförlitlighet},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  series       = {LUTVDG/TVBB},
  title        = {Title: Aging of mechanical components on a modeled offshore oil & gas platform and the influence on the risk level – Incorporating renewals and surveillance},
  year         = {2013},
}