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Variability in modelled Arctic Sea-Ice Volume

Axén, Hanna LU (2014) FYSK01 20132
Department of Physics
Nuclear physics
Abstract
In this thesis, the Arctic sea ice volume and thickness evolution over
the time period 1850-2100 is analysed. The analysed data is provided
by the CMIP5 climate models, which contributed their output for
the IPCC Fifth Assessment. The results were compared to the reanalysis
data series PIOMAS. Three RCP projections, with different
greenhouse gas emission scenarios, were used for the time period 2006-
2100. The change in seasonal cycle was investigated throughout the
time period and for the three RCP scenarios. Two of the models were
evaluated in more detail, these were MPI-ESM and EC-EARTH. Maps
showing the thickness change, according to the two models MPI-ESM
and EC-EARTH, were made.
The evolution of the sea ice volume shows a... (More)
In this thesis, the Arctic sea ice volume and thickness evolution over
the time period 1850-2100 is analysed. The analysed data is provided
by the CMIP5 climate models, which contributed their output for
the IPCC Fifth Assessment. The results were compared to the reanalysis
data series PIOMAS. Three RCP projections, with different
greenhouse gas emission scenarios, were used for the time period 2006-
2100. The change in seasonal cycle was investigated throughout the
time period and for the three RCP scenarios. Two of the models were
evaluated in more detail, these were MPI-ESM and EC-EARTH. Maps
showing the thickness change, according to the two models MPI-ESM
and EC-EARTH, were made.
The evolution of the sea ice volume shows a dependence on the
change in radiative forcing, thus the emissions of greenhouse gases.
For the high emission scenario, ice-free conditions in September are
reached before 2100. The models are able to reproduce some characteristics
of the sea-ice, but are generally underestimating the total
volume. The most important finding is that none of the models is able
to reproduce the rapid decrease in volume which is seen in PIOMAS
and supported by observations. This indicates that there is some component
missing in the models. The sea-ice retreat can also be expected
to go faster than seen in the models if greenhouse emissions are not
decreased.
The reduction would, according to the models, slow down when the
ice gets thinner, since thick ice reacts stronger than thin to changes in
radiative forcing. The models show that the sea-ice would have some
quasi-equilibrium, depending on the climate, and no so called tipping
point after which the sea-ice would not be able to recover. It would
then still be possible for us to stop further sea-ice reduction. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Axén, Hanna LU
supervisor
organization
course
FYSK01 20132
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
sea ice, sea ice volume, Arctic, CMIP5, PIOMAS, climate change
language
English
id
4281320
date added to LUP
2014-02-04 22:39:15
date last changed
2015-12-14 13:32:58
@misc{4281320,
  abstract     = {{In this thesis, the Arctic sea ice volume and thickness evolution over
the time period 1850-2100 is analysed. The analysed data is provided
by the CMIP5 climate models, which contributed their output for
the IPCC Fifth Assessment. The results were compared to the reanalysis
data series PIOMAS. Three RCP projections, with different
greenhouse gas emission scenarios, were used for the time period 2006-
2100. The change in seasonal cycle was investigated throughout the
time period and for the three RCP scenarios. Two of the models were
evaluated in more detail, these were MPI-ESM and EC-EARTH. Maps
showing the thickness change, according to the two models MPI-ESM
and EC-EARTH, were made.
The evolution of the sea ice volume shows a dependence on the
change in radiative forcing, thus the emissions of greenhouse gases.
For the high emission scenario, ice-free conditions in September are
reached before 2100. The models are able to reproduce some characteristics
of the sea-ice, but are generally underestimating the total
volume. The most important finding is that none of the models is able
to reproduce the rapid decrease in volume which is seen in PIOMAS
and supported by observations. This indicates that there is some component
missing in the models. The sea-ice retreat can also be expected
to go faster than seen in the models if greenhouse emissions are not
decreased.
The reduction would, according to the models, slow down when the
ice gets thinner, since thick ice reacts stronger than thin to changes in
radiative forcing. The models show that the sea-ice would have some
quasi-equilibrium, depending on the climate, and no so called tipping
point after which the sea-ice would not be able to recover. It would
then still be possible for us to stop further sea-ice reduction.}},
  author       = {{Axén, Hanna}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Variability in modelled Arctic Sea-Ice Volume}},
  year         = {{2014}},
}