Skip to main content

LUP Student Papers

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

Effektiv simulering av fotbollsmatcher

Wallman, Jesper LU and Hansson, Johan (2014) STAM01 20122
Department of Statistics
Abstract (Swedish)
This study put together a well established statistical model which estimates the expected number of goals being scored in football games in the Swedish 1 division (the third tier). The model is based on a Poisson regression and makes it possible to calculate the relative strength between two teams in terms of how many goals they are expected to score. The study is based on data from 1092 games and investigates whether it is possible to predict with higher accuracy than the betting market. Higher accuracy is measured through bets being places with Bet365 on the “Asian Handicap” as well as “Total goals” markets. Finally the study examines if there is a possibility to generate or increase a potential positive return. The study shows no... (More)
This study put together a well established statistical model which estimates the expected number of goals being scored in football games in the Swedish 1 division (the third tier). The model is based on a Poisson regression and makes it possible to calculate the relative strength between two teams in terms of how many goals they are expected to score. The study is based on data from 1092 games and investigates whether it is possible to predict with higher accuracy than the betting market. Higher accuracy is measured through bets being places with Bet365 on the “Asian Handicap” as well as “Total goals” markets. Finally the study examines if there is a possibility to generate or increase a potential positive return. The study shows no evidence that the model can predict with better accuracy than Bet365, mainly because their winning margins are large enough to cover up for possible inefficiencies in pricing. However it is shown that there is a possibility to generate a positive return for the reference season when strategic betting is applied. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Wallman, Jesper LU and Hansson, Johan
supervisor
organization
course
STAM01 20122
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
Poisson, Probability, Odds, Football, Asian Handicap and Total Goals, Strategic Gambling
language
Swedish
additional info
If any problems, please contact me at, jesper.wallman@gmail.com
id
4461291
date added to LUP
2014-06-18 12:02:37
date last changed
2014-06-18 12:02:37
@misc{4461291,
  abstract     = {{This study put together a well established statistical model which estimates the expected number of goals being scored in football games in the Swedish 1 division (the third tier). The model is based on a Poisson regression and makes it possible to calculate the relative strength between two teams in terms of how many goals they are expected to score. The study is based on data from 1092 games and investigates whether it is possible to predict with higher accuracy than the betting market. Higher accuracy is measured through bets being places with Bet365 on the “Asian Handicap” as well as “Total goals” markets. Finally the study examines if there is a possibility to generate or increase a potential positive return. The study shows no evidence that the model can predict with better accuracy than Bet365, mainly because their winning margins are large enough to cover up for possible inefficiencies in pricing. However it is shown that there is a possibility to generate a positive return for the reference season when strategic betting is applied.}},
  author       = {{Wallman, Jesper and Hansson, Johan}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Effektiv simulering av fotbollsmatcher}},
  year         = {{2014}},
}