Advanced

Prognosers tillförlitlighet och trovärdighet: En uppföljning av IEAs långtidsprognoser

Månsson, André LU (2015) UNDK01 20151
Department of Political Science
Abstract
The World Energy Outlook (WEO) is an annual analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA). It compiles global energy statistics and project market trends 15-25 years into the future. The analysis has high impact as it is used widely in business, academics and to inform policymakers.
This essay analyse the credibility and reliability of previous WEO with a focus of the editions from 1994, 2004 and 2014. An evaluation method is developed to analyse estimates provided in WEO, underlying assumptions, and how the context of IEA can have affected the credibility of the outlooks. Estimates and assumptions are analysed quantitatively and the context is analysed qualitatively, departing from neoinstitutional theory.
Most of the projections... (More)
The World Energy Outlook (WEO) is an annual analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA). It compiles global energy statistics and project market trends 15-25 years into the future. The analysis has high impact as it is used widely in business, academics and to inform policymakers.
This essay analyse the credibility and reliability of previous WEO with a focus of the editions from 1994, 2004 and 2014. An evaluation method is developed to analyse estimates provided in WEO, underlying assumptions, and how the context of IEA can have affected the credibility of the outlooks. Estimates and assumptions are analysed quantitatively and the context is analysed qualitatively, departing from neoinstitutional theory.
Most of the projections have been too optimistic. This also applies to most of the assumptions. However, it appears to be a discrepancy between the WEO’s quantitative projections, that are optimistic, and the qualitative parts that tend to be hesitant and/or pessimistic. An explanation for this can probably found in the multiple roles of the IEA. It has a legacy of “the energy watchdog” that wants to bark, it needs to serve and please its masters (i.e. member states) but it also has a will of its own. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Månsson, André LU
supervisor
organization
course
UNDK01 20151
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
IEA, Forecasting, Neoclassical economics, New institutionalism, Oil, Prediction, Projection, Validation, WEO, World energy outlook
language
English
id
5434788
date added to LUP
2015-11-18 14:49:40
date last changed
2015-11-18 14:49:40
@misc{5434788,
  abstract     = {The World Energy Outlook (WEO) is an annual analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA). It compiles global energy statistics and project market trends 15-25 years into the future. The analysis has high impact as it is used widely in business, academics and to inform policymakers.
This essay analyse the credibility and reliability of previous WEO with a focus of the editions from 1994, 2004 and 2014. An evaluation method is developed to analyse estimates provided in WEO, underlying assumptions, and how the context of IEA can have affected the credibility of the outlooks. Estimates and assumptions are analysed quantitatively and the context is analysed qualitatively, departing from neoinstitutional theory. 
Most of the projections have been too optimistic. This also applies to most of the assumptions. However, it appears to be a discrepancy between the WEO’s quantitative projections, that are optimistic, and the qualitative parts that tend to be hesitant and/or pessimistic. An explanation for this can probably found in the multiple roles of the IEA. It has a legacy of “the energy watchdog” that wants to bark, it needs to serve and please its masters (i.e. member states) but it also has a will of its own.},
  author       = {Månsson, André},
  keyword      = {IEA,Forecasting,Neoclassical economics,New institutionalism,Oil,Prediction,Projection,Validation,WEO,World energy outlook},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Prognosers tillförlitlighet och trovärdighet: En uppföljning av IEAs långtidsprognoser},
  year         = {2015},
}