Comparing Ips typographus and Dendroctonus ponderosas responses to climate change with the use of phenology models
(2015) In Student thesis series INES NGEK01 20151Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
- Abstract
- Bark beetles are a subfamily of insects living in and breeding on woody plants. Some of the bark beetle species have the ability to attack living trees, and thereby the potential to cause major forest damage. These forest damages can have a significant ecological and economic impact to forest ecosystems and foresters. In this study, phenology models were used to compare the responses to climate change of two species, the European Ips typographusand the North American Dendroctonus ponderosa, focusing on the beetles’ voltinism. One existing model for I. typographus was used, and then adjusted to fit for the conditions demanded by D. ponderosa. In addition, it was evaluated how D. ponderosa could develop if... (More)
- Bark beetles are a subfamily of insects living in and breeding on woody plants. Some of the bark beetle species have the ability to attack living trees, and thereby the potential to cause major forest damage. These forest damages can have a significant ecological and economic impact to forest ecosystems and foresters. In this study, phenology models were used to compare the responses to climate change of two species, the European Ips typographusand the North American Dendroctonus ponderosa, focusing on the beetles’ voltinism. One existing model for I. typographus was used, and then adjusted to fit for the conditions demanded by D. ponderosa. In addition, it was evaluated how D. ponderosa could develop if the species was established in Sweden, and if it potentially could imply a threat to Swedish forests. The modeled results reveal that as a consequence of climate change, the potential geographic extent and phenology of bark beetles will be altered. By the end of the 21st century, bark beetles populations will have
expanded further north and to higher altitudes, and their bivoltine potential will be increased. As a consequence, the outbreak potential might increase. According to climate conditions, D. ponderosa has the potential to establish in Europe. Due to its shorter generation time, D. ponderosa has a higher bivoltine potential than I. typographus in European conditions. However, the susceptibility of host plants also plays an impotent role for bark beetle establishment, and
how much of a threat D. ponderosa could imply to Swedish forest ecosystems depends substantially on the vulnerability of the main Swedish tree species to D. ponderosa infestation. Regarding all bark beetles, appropriate forest management is vital to reduce the bark beetle outbreak risk. (Less) - Popular Abstract (Swedish)
- Barkborrar är en grupp av insekter som lever av och i vedartade växter. Vissa av barkborrarna har förmågan att angripa levande träd, och därav kan de potentiellt orsaka storskaliga skogsskador. Dessa skogsskador kan ha en betydande ekologisk inverkan på skogars ekosystem samt betydande ekonomisk inverkan för skogsägare och samhällen som är beroende av skogsbruk. I den här studien användes fenologimodeller för att jämföra två barkborrarters respons till klimatförändringen. Arterna var den Europeiska Ips typographus (Granbarkborre)
och den Nordamerikanska Dendroctonus ponderosa (Contortabastborre), och fokus låg på barkborrarnas voltinism, det vill säga- hur många generationer som kan utvecklas under en säsong. För... (More) - Barkborrar är en grupp av insekter som lever av och i vedartade växter. Vissa av barkborrarna har förmågan att angripa levande träd, och därav kan de potentiellt orsaka storskaliga skogsskador. Dessa skogsskador kan ha en betydande ekologisk inverkan på skogars ekosystem samt betydande ekonomisk inverkan för skogsägare och samhällen som är beroende av skogsbruk. I den här studien användes fenologimodeller för att jämföra två barkborrarters respons till klimatförändringen. Arterna var den Europeiska Ips typographus (Granbarkborre)
och den Nordamerikanska Dendroctonus ponderosa (Contortabastborre), och fokus låg på barkborrarnas voltinism, det vill säga- hur många generationer som kan utvecklas under en säsong. För modelleringen användes en existerande modell för I. typographus som sedan modifierades för att anpassas till D. ponderosa levnadsförhållanden. Hotet som D. ponderosa eventuellt skulle kunna innebära för svenska skogar utvärderades också. De modellerade resultaten visar att till följd av klimatförändringen kommer barkborrarnas potentiella geografiska utbredning samt fenologi att ändras. Vid slutet av det här århundradet kommer
barkborrepopulationerna att ha expanderat norrut samt till områden belägna på högre altituder. Potentialen till att utveckla två generationer per år kommer att ha ökat. Till följd av detta kan även risken för storskaliga utbrott av barkborrar öka. Enligt både nutida och framtida klimatförhållanden har D. ponderosa möjlighet att etablera sig i Europa. På grund av dess kortare
utvecklingstid har D. ponderosa dessutom en större potential till att utveckla två generationer per år än I. typographus i Europa. Känsligheten hos värdträden spelar emellertid också en stor roll för barkborrars etablering, och hur stort hot D. ponderosa skulle kunna innebära för svenska skogar beror huvudsakligen på hur känsliga de viktigaste svenska trädarterna skulle vara för angrepp av D. ponderosa. Gällande alla barkborrearter är det ytterst viktigt att använda rätt
skogsförvaltningsmetoder för att minska risken för nutida och framtida barkborreangrepp. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/5474054
- author
- Pettersson, Ida LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- NGEK01 20151
- year
- 2015
- type
- M2 - Bachelor Degree
- subject
- keywords
- forest damage., phenology models, bark beetles, voltinsim, climate change, D. ponderosa, I. typographus
- publication/series
- Student thesis series INES
- report number
- 344
- language
- English
- id
- 5474054
- date added to LUP
- 2015-06-16 15:57:57
- date last changed
- 2015-06-22 09:28:16
@misc{5474054,
abstract = {{Bark beetles are a subfamily of insects living in and breeding on woody plants. Some of the bark beetle species have the ability to attack living trees, and thereby the potential to cause major forest damage. These forest damages can have a significant ecological and economic impact to forest ecosystems and foresters. In this study, phenology models were used to compare the responses to climate change of two species, the European [i]Ips typographus[/i]and the North American [i]Dendroctonus ponderosa[/i], focusing on the beetles’ voltinism. One existing model for [i]I. typographus[/i] was used, and then adjusted to fit for the conditions demanded by [i]D. ponderosa[/i]. In addition, it was evaluated how [i]D. ponderosa[/i] could develop if the species was established in Sweden, and if it potentially could imply a threat to Swedish forests. The modeled results reveal that as a consequence of climate change, the potential geographic extent and phenology of bark beetles will be altered. By the end of the 21st century, bark beetles populations will have
expanded further north and to higher altitudes, and their bivoltine potential will be increased. As a consequence, the outbreak potential might increase. According to climate conditions, [i]D. ponderosa[/i] has the potential to establish in Europe. Due to its shorter generation time, [i]D. ponderosa[/i] has a higher bivoltine potential than [i]I. typographus[/i] in European conditions. However, the susceptibility of host plants also plays an impotent role for bark beetle establishment, and
how much of a threat [i]D. ponderosa[/i] could imply to Swedish forest ecosystems depends substantially on the vulnerability of the main Swedish tree species to [i]D. ponderosa[/i] infestation. Regarding all bark beetles, appropriate forest management is vital to reduce the bark beetle outbreak risk.}},
author = {{Pettersson, Ida}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
series = {{Student thesis series INES}},
title = {{Comparing Ips typographus and Dendroctonus ponderosas responses to climate change with the use of phenology models}},
year = {{2015}},
}