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Simulating future wheat yields’ response to climate change and evaluating the efficiency of early sowing in Spain

Mechiche-Alami, Altaaf LU (2015) In Lund University GEM thesis series NGEM01 20151
Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Abstract
Global food security is one of the main concerns of this century. Moreover, the increasing negative impacts of climate change on different sectors including agriculture are further expected to exacerbate these challenges. The main aim of this thesis is to assess the future impacts of climate change on wheat yields in Spain by 2050 and to evaluate the efficiency of early sowing as an adaptation strategy. This was done by using the LPJ-GUESS model. The model was calibrated and validated against reported experimental wheat data in the most productive regions of Spain. Moreover, future simulations were run using future climate data obtain from two GCMs (ESM2 and CM3), the embedded sowing algorithm in LPJ-GUESS and applied deviations in sowing... (More)
Global food security is one of the main concerns of this century. Moreover, the increasing negative impacts of climate change on different sectors including agriculture are further expected to exacerbate these challenges. The main aim of this thesis is to assess the future impacts of climate change on wheat yields in Spain by 2050 and to evaluate the efficiency of early sowing as an adaptation strategy. This was done by using the LPJ-GUESS model. The model was calibrated and validated against reported experimental wheat data in the most productive regions of Spain. Moreover, future simulations were run using future climate data obtain from two GCMs (ESM2 and CM3), the embedded sowing algorithm in LPJ-GUESS and applied deviations in sowing dates. The results show that wheat will be influenced by climate change in Spain and that earlier sowing dates generally results in increases in yields depending on the location. Finally, this study insists on the need for exploring more adaptation measures as changing sowing dates only would not be a viable option for the second half of the century. (Less)
Popular Abstract
Global food security is one of the main concerns of this century. Moreover, the increasing negative impacts of climate change on different sectors including agriculture are further expected to exacerbate these challenges. The main aim of this thesis is to assess the future impacts of climate change on wheat yields in Spain by 2050 and to evaluate the efficiency of early sowing as an adaptation strategy. The results show that wheat will be influenced by climate change in Spain. Indeed up to 2030, yields will benefit from increases in CO2, however, the very high temperatures that would be observed after that will lead to a decline in yields. This thesis has also resulted in determining that earlier sowing dates generally results in increases... (More)
Global food security is one of the main concerns of this century. Moreover, the increasing negative impacts of climate change on different sectors including agriculture are further expected to exacerbate these challenges. The main aim of this thesis is to assess the future impacts of climate change on wheat yields in Spain by 2050 and to evaluate the efficiency of early sowing as an adaptation strategy. The results show that wheat will be influenced by climate change in Spain. Indeed up to 2030, yields will benefit from increases in CO2, however, the very high temperatures that would be observed after that will lead to a decline in yields. This thesis has also resulted in determining that earlier sowing dates generally results in increases in yields depending on the location and that planting 30 days earlier could yield to about 40% yield increase in some regions. Finally, this study insists on the need for exploring more adaptation measures as changing sowing dates only would not be a viable option for the second half of the century. (Less)
Popular Abstract (Arabic)
بسم لله الرحمن الرحيم والصلاة والسلام على أشرف المرسلين

لا شك أن الأمن الغذائي أصبح هاجسا يؤرق المجتمع الدولي في هذا القرن، مما جعله يتصدر أولويات التفكير وتعميق البحث والدراسة بسبب تكاثر الآثار السلبية للتغيرات المناخية التي تزداد شدتها وبسرعة كبيرة في قطاعات متعددة.
ومن المعلوم أن القطاع الفلاحي أصبح عرضة لهذه التغيرات المناخية والمتمثلة في ارتفاع درجات الحرارة وانخفاض تساقطات الأمطار مما يؤدي إلى أضرار بالغة على المنتوجات الزراعية.
هذا البحث تناول بالدراسة تقدير آثار التغيرات المناخية على إنتاج القمح بإسبانيا على مدى 50 سنة، وقد تبين أن إنتاجه سيستفيد من ارتفاع تركيزات ديوكسيد الكربون إلى غاية 2030، ومن المتوقع أن ينخفض الإنتاج في معظم المناطق بسبب ارتفاع دراجات الحرارة التي تؤدي الى تضاءل فترة نمو القمح.
كما قام هذا البحث كذلك... (More)
بسم لله الرحمن الرحيم والصلاة والسلام على أشرف المرسلين

لا شك أن الأمن الغذائي أصبح هاجسا يؤرق المجتمع الدولي في هذا القرن، مما جعله يتصدر أولويات التفكير وتعميق البحث والدراسة بسبب تكاثر الآثار السلبية للتغيرات المناخية التي تزداد شدتها وبسرعة كبيرة في قطاعات متعددة.
ومن المعلوم أن القطاع الفلاحي أصبح عرضة لهذه التغيرات المناخية والمتمثلة في ارتفاع درجات الحرارة وانخفاض تساقطات الأمطار مما يؤدي إلى أضرار بالغة على المنتوجات الزراعية.
هذا البحث تناول بالدراسة تقدير آثار التغيرات المناخية على إنتاج القمح بإسبانيا على مدى 50 سنة، وقد تبين أن إنتاجه سيستفيد من ارتفاع تركيزات ديوكسيد الكربون إلى غاية 2030، ومن المتوقع أن ينخفض الإنتاج في معظم المناطق بسبب ارتفاع دراجات الحرارة التي تؤدي الى تضاءل فترة نمو القمح.
كما قام هذا البحث كذلك بتقييم مدى فعالية الزراعة المبكرة في ارتفاع الإنتاج، وتبين أن تعجيل زراعة القمح ب 30 يوما سيؤدي إلى ارتفاع الإنتاج بما يقارب 40٪ في بعض المناطق إلى غاية سنة 2050، كما أن ازدياد فترات الجفاف في البلاد تستلزم اتخاذ تدابير أخرى ذات فعالية مرتفعة لحصر الأضرار التي سيعاني منها نمو القمح في المستقبل. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Mechiche-Alami, Altaaf LU
supervisor
organization
course
NGEM01 20151
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
early sowing, adaptation, climate change, food security, ecosystem analysis, physical geography, Spain, wheat, GEM
publication/series
Lund University GEM thesis series
report number
19
funder
Erasmus Mundus Programme
language
English
id
7470960
date added to LUP
2015-07-02 12:47:56
date last changed
2016-06-30 04:07:27
@misc{7470960,
  abstract     = {Global food security is one of the main concerns of this century. Moreover, the increasing negative impacts of climate change on different sectors including agriculture are further expected to exacerbate these challenges. The main aim of this thesis is to assess the future impacts of climate change on wheat yields in Spain by 2050 and to evaluate the efficiency of early sowing as an adaptation strategy. This was done by using the LPJ-GUESS model. The model was calibrated and validated against reported experimental wheat data in the most productive regions of Spain. Moreover, future simulations were run using future climate data obtain from two GCMs (ESM2 and CM3), the embedded sowing algorithm in LPJ-GUESS and applied deviations in sowing dates. The results show that wheat will be influenced by climate change in Spain and that earlier sowing dates generally results in increases in yields depending on the location. Finally, this study insists on the need for exploring more adaptation measures as changing sowing dates only would not be a viable option for the second half of the century.},
  author       = {Mechiche-Alami, Altaaf},
  keyword      = {early sowing,adaptation,climate change,food security,ecosystem analysis,physical geography,Spain,wheat,GEM},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  series       = {Lund University GEM thesis series},
  title        = {Simulating future wheat yields’ response to climate change and evaluating the efficiency of early sowing in Spain},
  year         = {2015},
}