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Analysis of the Determinants of the Fertility Decline in Southern Africa

Linder, Adam LU (2015) EKHM51 20151
Department of Economic History
Abstract
Abstract: Southern Africa has already since the onset of the fertility transition recorded levels that are remarkably low in comparison with the other sub-Saharan regions. Theories suggest that socioeconomic development can explain a lot of the inter-regional fertility variations. Despite clear indications of higher socioeconomic development there are also question marks attached to the severe AIDS-epidemic and its impact on fertility levels. In order to bring more clarity the study will explore the main determinants of the fertility decline and explicitly also address the eventual impact of HIV/AIDS. Through panel data analysis of World Bank-data between the years 1990-2011 the respective impact of each variable is estimated. The... (More)
Abstract: Southern Africa has already since the onset of the fertility transition recorded levels that are remarkably low in comparison with the other sub-Saharan regions. Theories suggest that socioeconomic development can explain a lot of the inter-regional fertility variations. Despite clear indications of higher socioeconomic development there are also question marks attached to the severe AIDS-epidemic and its impact on fertility levels. In order to bring more clarity the study will explore the main determinants of the fertility decline and explicitly also address the eventual impact of HIV/AIDS. Through panel data analysis of World Bank-data between the years 1990-2011 the respective impact of each variable is estimated. The generated results indicate that secondary education and HIV figure as two major determinants of the Southern African fertility decline. The results also indicate that child mortality and adolescent fertility remain two of the most important factors in determining the fertility levels. The results of the study confirm the importance of increasing female participation in higher education and on the labor market. Addressing social and economic inequality between women and men will also help to reduce child mortality and births among adolescent women. This also includes strengthening the provision offamily planning and legal abortions. In order to minimize the impact of HIV/AIDS it is important to continue with current information campaigns as well as to increase screening. Cultural patterns of HIV linked to polygamy; labor migration and social stigmas also need to be addressed by policy-makers if the epidemic is to disappear in the near future. (Less)
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author
Linder, Adam LU
supervisor
organization
course
EKHM51 20151
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
Southern Africa., Cultural Patterns, Socioeconomic Determinants, Fertility decline
language
English
id
7521804
date added to LUP
2015-08-17 12:00:35
date last changed
2015-08-17 12:00:35
@misc{7521804,
  abstract     = {Abstract: Southern Africa has already since the onset of the fertility transition recorded levels that are remarkably low in comparison with the other sub-Saharan regions. Theories suggest that socioeconomic development can explain a lot of the inter-regional fertility variations. Despite clear indications of higher socioeconomic development there are also question marks attached to the severe AIDS-epidemic and its impact on fertility levels. In order to bring more clarity the study will explore the main determinants of the fertility decline and explicitly also address the eventual impact of HIV/AIDS. Through panel data analysis of World Bank-data between the years 1990-2011 the respective impact of each variable is estimated. The generated results indicate that secondary education and HIV figure as two major determinants of the Southern African fertility decline. The results also indicate that child mortality and adolescent fertility remain two of the most important factors in determining the fertility levels. The results of the study confirm the importance of increasing female participation in higher education and on the labor market. Addressing social and economic inequality between women and men will also help to reduce child mortality and births among adolescent women. This also includes strengthening the provision offamily planning and legal abortions. In order to minimize the impact of HIV/AIDS it is important to continue with current information campaigns as well as to increase screening. Cultural patterns of HIV linked to polygamy; labor migration and social stigmas also need to be addressed by policy-makers if the epidemic is to disappear in the near future.},
  author       = {Linder, Adam},
  keyword      = {Southern Africa.,Cultural Patterns,Socioeconomic Determinants,Fertility decline},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Analysis of the Determinants of the Fertility Decline in Southern Africa},
  year         = {2015},
}