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Impacts of Climate Change on Abies spectabilis : an approach integrating a Species Distribution Model (MaxEnt) and a Dynamic Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS)

Joshi, Mohan Dev LU (2015) In Lund University GEM thesis series NGEM01 20151
Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Abstract
Recent global warming trends, particularly in the arctic regions and Himalayas are modifying forest structure and function, notably biogeographical changes in tree species distribution together with alteration in Net Primary Production (NPP), Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Carbon biomass. These alterations are most pronounced in mountain environments, carrying significant impacts on woody species which are more sensitive to temperature changes. This study was done to elucidate the changes in the suitable habitat area, elevation shift, relative coverage, net primary production and carbon biomass for Abies spectabilis in Manaslu conservation area, Nepal. Being a dominant ecotone species in the Nepal Himalayas, Abies spectabilis is likely to bear... (More)
Recent global warming trends, particularly in the arctic regions and Himalayas are modifying forest structure and function, notably biogeographical changes in tree species distribution together with alteration in Net Primary Production (NPP), Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Carbon biomass. These alterations are most pronounced in mountain environments, carrying significant impacts on woody species which are more sensitive to temperature changes. This study was done to elucidate the changes in the suitable habitat area, elevation shift, relative coverage, net primary production and carbon biomass for Abies spectabilis in Manaslu conservation area, Nepal. Being a dominant ecotone species in the Nepal Himalayas, Abies spectabilis is likely to bear the significant climate change impact.
This study used future climate scenario output from the CCSM4 climate model (RCP 2.6) in two vegetation modeling approaches - the empirical MaxEnt (Maximum entropy) and process-based LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Postdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). Plant occurrence data were collected through published literatures, online source and from the Herbarium records. Environmental driving data were obtained from the Worldclim- Global Climate Data and from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI).
The findings show that both the models are in excellent agreement with the current distribution of Abies spectabilis, verified by error rate and Cohen's Kappa. The rate of species movement is predicted to be 14 meters per decade (MaxEnt) and 30 meters of altitude per decade (LPJ-GUESS). in terms of suitable habitat area, MaxEnt predicts reduction of 3 % of the suitable area by the year 2050 while LPJ-GUESS predicts the area to be reduced by 20.5 %. In addition, LPJ-GUESS predicts reducing coverage of Abies spectabilis from the lower-temperate climatic zone (2000-2500 masl) and increasing coverage in lower-alpine climatic zone (4000-4500 masl) in the coming future. The species will respond to climate warming by increasing its Leaf Area Index, Net Primary Production and Carbon biomass. LPJ-GUESS predicts an increase of 64 (gC m-2 yr-1) mean net primary production by the 2050 scenario (corresponding to a 30.18 % increase relative to modelled current NPP values). Carbon biomass will increase by the mean value of 0.33 (KgCm-2) (corresponding to a 19.87 % increase relative to modelled current cmass values). It is found that annual temperature range and precipitation seasonality (MaxEnt) influence the current distribution while in the future, mean temperature of the coldest quarter will shape the geographical distribution of Abies spectabilis. (Less)
Popular Abstract
Climate is changing and it is changing rapidly. Rapidly in the sense that it is changing at a rate - more than we expected. Of-course, the changing patterns is not universally same. Climate is changing at an alarming rate in the Arctic regions and in the Himalayas. In the Himalayas, the warming trend observed ranges from 0.01 to 0.060C/yr. and the annual mean temperature is expected to increase by 2.90C by the middle of the century. The thickness of climate change will bring impacts on socio-economical, biological, physical and other aspects. But here, we are only focused on biological issues; we are interested to know what changes it will bring to plant species? To be more specific, we want to know what changes it will bring to plant... (More)
Climate is changing and it is changing rapidly. Rapidly in the sense that it is changing at a rate - more than we expected. Of-course, the changing patterns is not universally same. Climate is changing at an alarming rate in the Arctic regions and in the Himalayas. In the Himalayas, the warming trend observed ranges from 0.01 to 0.060C/yr. and the annual mean temperature is expected to increase by 2.90C by the middle of the century. The thickness of climate change will bring impacts on socio-economical, biological, physical and other aspects. But here, we are only focused on biological issues; we are interested to know what changes it will bring to plant species? To be more specific, we want to know what changes it will bring to plant species in terms of suitable habitat, elevation shift, relative coverage, net primary production and carbon biomass? For that we choose Abies spectabilis - as a plant and Manaslu Conservation Area, Nepal – as a location.
To set up the climate scenario, we use the data from CCSM4 model. Models used different scenarios to project the future climate states, for this research, we choose RCP 2.6 scenario. RCP stands for Representative Concentration Pathways, which are greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its fifth assessment report in 2014. 2.6 is a possible range of radiative forcing value in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial value (i.e an added value of 2.6 W/m2). Plant occurrence data were collected through published literatures, online source and from the Herbarium records. Bioclimatic parameters were calculated according to the local climate. These data were used in two vegetation modeling approaches – the empirical Maxent and process based LPJ-GUESS. Maxent (or Maximum entropy) is a popular software package which based upon the theory of maximum entropy predicts the distribution of a species taking the species presence records and environmental variables as input data. Given data on climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration, LPJ-GUESS estimates the vegetation composition and cover in terms of Plant Functional Types (PFTs), biomass, leaf area index and Net primary Production (NPP).
The findings show that both the models are in excellent agreement with the current distribution of Abies spectabilis. The rate of species movement is predicted to be 14 meters per decade (MaxEnt) and 30 meters of altitude per decade (LPJ-GUESS). In terms of suitable habitat area, MaxEnt predicts reduction of 3 % of the suitable area by the year 2050 while LPJ-GUESS predicts the area to be reduced by 20.5 %. In addition, LPJ-GUESS predicts reducing coverage of Abies spectabilis from the lower-temperate climatic zone (2000-2500 masl) and increasing coverage in lower-alpine climatic zone (4000-4500 masl) in the coming future. The species will respond to climate warming by increasing its Leaf Area Index, Net Primary Production and Carbon biomass.It is also found that annual temperature range and precipitation seasonality (MaxEnt) influence the current distribution while in the future, mean temperature of the coldest quarter will shape the geographical distribution of Abies spectabilis. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Joshi, Mohan Dev LU
supervisor
organization
alternative title
With the changing climate in Nepal Himalayas, what’s in stock for [i]Abies spectabilis[/i]?
course
NGEM01 20151
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
MaxEnt, Manaslu conservation area, GEM, Abies spectabilis, Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis, climate change, LPJ-GUESS
publication/series
Lund University GEM thesis series
report number
8
funder
World Bank Joint Japan Graduate Scholarship Program
language
English
id
7791612
date added to LUP
2015-08-31 11:41:30
date last changed
2015-08-31 11:41:30
@misc{7791612,
  abstract     = {Recent global warming trends, particularly in the arctic regions and Himalayas are modifying forest structure and function, notably biogeographical changes in tree species distribution together with alteration in Net Primary Production (NPP), Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Carbon biomass. These alterations are most pronounced in mountain environments, carrying significant impacts on woody species which are more sensitive to temperature changes. This study was done to elucidate the changes in the suitable habitat area, elevation shift, relative coverage, net primary production and carbon biomass for Abies spectabilis in Manaslu conservation area, Nepal. Being a dominant ecotone species in the Nepal Himalayas, Abies spectabilis is likely to bear the significant climate change impact. 
This study used future climate scenario output from the CCSM4 climate model (RCP 2.6) in two vegetation modeling approaches - the empirical MaxEnt (Maximum entropy) and process-based LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Postdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). Plant occurrence data were collected through published literatures, online source and from the Herbarium records. Environmental driving data were obtained from the Worldclim- Global Climate Data and from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI).
The findings show that both the models are in excellent agreement with the current distribution of [i]Abies spectabilis[/i], verified by error rate and Cohen's Kappa. The rate of species movement is predicted to be 14 meters per decade (MaxEnt) and 30 meters of altitude per decade (LPJ-GUESS). in terms of suitable habitat area, MaxEnt predicts reduction of 3 % of the suitable area by the year 2050 while LPJ-GUESS predicts the area to be reduced by 20.5 %. In addition, LPJ-GUESS predicts reducing coverage of [i]Abies spectabilis[/i] from the lower-temperate climatic zone (2000-2500 masl) and increasing coverage in lower-alpine climatic zone (4000-4500 masl) in the coming future. The species will respond to climate warming by increasing its Leaf Area Index, Net Primary Production and Carbon biomass. LPJ-GUESS predicts an increase of 64 (gC m-2 yr-1) mean net primary production by the 2050 scenario (corresponding to a 30.18 % increase relative to modelled current NPP values). Carbon biomass will increase by the mean value of 0.33 (KgCm-2) (corresponding to a 19.87 % increase relative to modelled current cmass values). It is found that annual temperature range and precipitation seasonality (MaxEnt) influence the current distribution while in the future, mean temperature of the coldest quarter will shape the geographical distribution of [i]Abies spectabilis[/i].},
  author       = {Joshi, Mohan Dev},
  keyword      = {MaxEnt,Manaslu conservation area,GEM,Abies spectabilis,Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis,climate change,LPJ-GUESS},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  series       = {Lund University GEM thesis series},
  title        = {Impacts of Climate Change on Abies spectabilis : an approach integrating a Species Distribution Model (MaxEnt) and a Dynamic Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS)},
  year         = {2015},
}