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Commodity Prices and Violence

Otto Syk, Marcus LU and El Ghoul, Wessam LU (2016) STVA22 20161
Department of Political Science
Abstract
In this study it is theorized that the world market price of a certain commodity should affect the intensity of the violence in conflict zones in which this commodity is produced. This is tested on the Second Congo War and the continuing violence since, using statistical methods to analyse the effect of the world market price of gold, diamonds, oil, tin, copper, cobalt and coltan. The methods used are time series graphs for a visual presentation, regression analysis to test the potential correlations and fixed effect analysis to test the strength of the effect by predicting the intensity of the conflict using world market prices. The predicted effect was only found for some of the commodities included in the analysis.
The main findings... (More)
In this study it is theorized that the world market price of a certain commodity should affect the intensity of the violence in conflict zones in which this commodity is produced. This is tested on the Second Congo War and the continuing violence since, using statistical methods to analyse the effect of the world market price of gold, diamonds, oil, tin, copper, cobalt and coltan. The methods used are time series graphs for a visual presentation, regression analysis to test the potential correlations and fixed effect analysis to test the strength of the effect by predicting the intensity of the conflict using world market prices. The predicted effect was only found for some of the commodities included in the analysis.
The main findings are that violence in a region follows the world market price of relevant commodities, but with a delay of approximately two years. This is only true for the most violent regions, where there were several actors taking part in the resource plunder. Additional findings included that tin is the most prominent conflict mineral of eastern Congo, rather than gold or coltan as is usually suggested in the literature, and that fixed effects analysis can be used to predict future level of violence. (Less)
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author
Otto Syk, Marcus LU and El Ghoul, Wessam LU
supervisor
organization
course
STVA22 20161
year
type
L2 - 2nd term paper (old degree order)
subject
keywords
conflict minerals, Democratic Republic of the Congo, resource curse, conflict intensity, commodity prices
language
English
id
8873009
date added to LUP
2017-01-12 10:15:14
date last changed
2017-01-12 10:15:14
@misc{8873009,
  abstract     = {In this study it is theorized that the world market price of a certain commodity should affect the intensity of the violence in conflict zones in which this commodity is produced. This is tested on the Second Congo War and the continuing violence since, using statistical methods to analyse the effect of the world market price of gold, diamonds, oil, tin, copper, cobalt and coltan. The methods used are time series graphs for a visual presentation, regression analysis to test the potential correlations and fixed effect analysis to test the strength of the effect by predicting the intensity of the conflict using world market prices. The predicted effect was only found for some of the commodities included in the analysis. 
The main findings are that violence in a region follows the world market price of relevant commodities, but with a delay of approximately two years. This is only true for the most violent regions, where there were several actors taking part in the resource plunder. Additional findings included that tin is the most prominent conflict mineral of eastern Congo, rather than gold or coltan as is usually suggested in the literature, and that fixed effects analysis can be used to predict future level of violence.},
  author       = {Otto Syk, Marcus and El Ghoul, Wessam},
  keyword      = {conflict minerals,Democratic Republic of the Congo,resource curse,conflict intensity,commodity prices},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Commodity Prices and Violence},
  year         = {2016},
}