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Modelling Grain Surplus/Deficit in Cameroon for 2030

Hermans, Thirze LU (2016) In Student thesis series INES NGEM01 20161
Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Abstract
Central Africa has the lowest food production per capita, slow yield development and the fastest growing population in the world. This study aimed to develop a model, which estimates the grain surplus or deficit in Cameroon for 2015-2030. Grains form the main diet in Cameroon and the modelled grains in this project are sorghum, millet, rice and maize. Additionally, in the case of a deficit, the yield growth needed to meet consumption in 2030 was calculated and interviews were conducted with farmers in Cameroon. The model results show that a deficit for maize and rice is expected in 2030 but not for millet and sorghum. Yield growth needed for rice is high whereas the maize yield growth needed is smaller. Main identified problems for further... (More)
Central Africa has the lowest food production per capita, slow yield development and the fastest growing population in the world. This study aimed to develop a model, which estimates the grain surplus or deficit in Cameroon for 2015-2030. Grains form the main diet in Cameroon and the modelled grains in this project are sorghum, millet, rice and maize. Additionally, in the case of a deficit, the yield growth needed to meet consumption in 2030 was calculated and interviews were conducted with farmers in Cameroon. The model results show that a deficit for maize and rice is expected in 2030 but not for millet and sorghum. Yield growth needed for rice is high whereas the maize yield growth needed is smaller. Main identified problems for further production growth are climate change, population growth, postharvest losses and the access to resources such as fertilizers, mechanization, and preservation technology. (Less)
Popular Abstract
Central Africa has the lowest food production per person, slow yield per hectare growth and the fastest growing population in the world. This study aims to develop a model, which predicts the grain surplus or deficit in Cameroon for 2015-2030. Grains are a main part of the diet in Cameroon and the modelled grains in this project are sorghum, millet, rice and maize. In the case of a grain shortage, the yield growth needed to meet consumption in 2030 was calculated. Two farmers and an agricultural officer were interviewed to get local knowledge and opinions.

The model results show that a shortage for maize and rice is expected in 2030 but not for millet and sorghum. Yield growth needed for rice is high whereas the maize yield growth... (More)
Central Africa has the lowest food production per person, slow yield per hectare growth and the fastest growing population in the world. This study aims to develop a model, which predicts the grain surplus or deficit in Cameroon for 2015-2030. Grains are a main part of the diet in Cameroon and the modelled grains in this project are sorghum, millet, rice and maize. In the case of a grain shortage, the yield growth needed to meet consumption in 2030 was calculated. Two farmers and an agricultural officer were interviewed to get local knowledge and opinions.

The model results show that a shortage for maize and rice is expected in 2030 but not for millet and sorghum. Yield growth needed for rice is high whereas the maize yield growth needed is small. Main identified problems for further production growth are climate change, population growth, postharvest losses, which is the loss of crop after harvesting, and the access to resources such as fertilizers, mechanization, and preservation technology. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Hermans, Thirze LU
supervisor
organization
course
NGEM01 20161
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
modelling, grains, Cameroon, Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis, food security
publication/series
Student thesis series INES
report number
393
language
English
additional info
Interview transcripts are available upon request.
id
8884352
date added to LUP
2016-06-22 16:34:37
date last changed
2016-06-22 16:34:37
@misc{8884352,
  abstract     = {Central Africa has the lowest food production per capita, slow yield development and the fastest growing population in the world. This study aimed to develop a model, which estimates the grain surplus or deficit in Cameroon for 2015-2030. Grains form the main diet in Cameroon and the modelled grains in this project are sorghum, millet, rice and maize. Additionally, in the case of a deficit, the yield growth needed to meet consumption in 2030 was calculated and interviews were conducted with farmers in Cameroon. The model results show that a deficit for maize and rice is expected in 2030 but not for millet and sorghum. Yield growth needed for rice is high whereas the maize yield growth needed is smaller. Main identified problems for further production growth are climate change, population growth, postharvest losses and the access to resources such as fertilizers, mechanization, and preservation technology.},
  author       = {Hermans, Thirze},
  keyword      = {modelling,grains,Cameroon,Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis,food security},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  series       = {Student thesis series INES},
  title        = {Modelling Grain Surplus/Deficit in Cameroon for 2030},
  year         = {2016},
}