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Med nittiotalskrisen som kompass - en läroprocessanalys av svensk stabiliseringspolitik 1985 - 2015

Jakobsson, Liza LU (2016) EKHK31 20161
Department of Economic History
Abstract
In 2015, The Swedish central bank; the Riksbank, decided to lower the repo rate to -0,1
percent. The idea was to stimulate inflation in order to reach the target inflation of 2%
according to CPI. The decision was and is controversial. Even if the inflation based on CPI is
very low, the inflation on asset prices especially in the housing market is very high.

Meanwhile, the household debt is increasing, making both households as well as the
economy as a whole unstable. The Riksbank has a conflict of interest; lowering the interest
rate makes the financial economy unstable, tightening the monetary politics in relation to the
high debt risks undermining the status of the inflation target.

The inflation target is one of the central... (More)
In 2015, The Swedish central bank; the Riksbank, decided to lower the repo rate to -0,1
percent. The idea was to stimulate inflation in order to reach the target inflation of 2%
according to CPI. The decision was and is controversial. Even if the inflation based on CPI is
very low, the inflation on asset prices especially in the housing market is very high.

Meanwhile, the household debt is increasing, making both households as well as the
economy as a whole unstable. The Riksbank has a conflict of interest; lowering the interest
rate makes the financial economy unstable, tightening the monetary politics in relation to the
high debt risks undermining the status of the inflation target.

The inflation target is one of the central lessons to emerge out of the 1990:s crisis. The
purpose of the thesis is to examine how the lessons of the Swedish crisis in the 90:s, like the
inflation target, shaped the institutional framework that Swedish economic-political decision
makers have to take into account. The starting point of the theoretical policy learning process
is dependent on the historical context as well as the economic paradigm it acts within. The
theoretical framework, as well as the methods of in this thesis, is based largely on Lars
Jonungs ESO-report "Looking ahead through the Rear-View Mirror. Swedish Stabilization
Policy as a Learning Process, 1975-1995." from 1999.

The analysis of the learning process shows that the lessons from the 90:s crisis are still
highly influential in the Riksbank. The inflation target and the institutional framework that
came with it was a result of the 90:s and has been successful in maintaining confidence for
the Swedish stabilization policy. During the last ten years new stability problems have
occurred while the models, which the Riksbank uses for estimating the inflation target, have
evolved to be almost static. This rigidity makes it hard for the Riksbank to choose to think
new and adapt the decisions of the stability policy to the historical context of today (Less)
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author
Jakobsson, Liza LU
supervisor
organization
course
EKHK31 20161
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
minusränta, Inflationsmålet, Politikbyten, läroprocess, Nittiotalskrisen
language
Swedish
id
8890068
date added to LUP
2016-09-19 13:18:18
date last changed
2016-09-19 13:18:18
@misc{8890068,
  abstract     = {In 2015, The Swedish central bank; the Riksbank, decided to lower the repo rate to -0,1
percent. The idea was to stimulate inflation in order to reach the target inflation of 2%
according to CPI. The decision was and is controversial. Even if the inflation based on CPI is
very low, the inflation on asset prices especially in the housing market is very high.

Meanwhile, the household debt is increasing, making both households as well as the
economy as a whole unstable. The Riksbank has a conflict of interest; lowering the interest
rate makes the financial economy unstable, tightening the monetary politics in relation to the
high debt risks undermining the status of the inflation target.

The inflation target is one of the central lessons to emerge out of the 1990:s crisis. The
purpose of the thesis is to examine how the lessons of the Swedish crisis in the 90:s, like the
inflation target, shaped the institutional framework that Swedish economic-political decision
makers have to take into account. The starting point of the theoretical policy learning process
is dependent on the historical context as well as the economic paradigm it acts within. The
theoretical framework, as well as the methods of in this thesis, is based largely on Lars
Jonungs ESO-report "Looking ahead through the Rear-View Mirror. Swedish Stabilization
Policy as a Learning Process, 1975-1995." from 1999.

The analysis of the learning process shows that the lessons from the 90:s crisis are still
highly influential in the Riksbank. The inflation target and the institutional framework that
came with it was a result of the 90:s and has been successful in maintaining confidence for
the Swedish stabilization policy. During the last ten years new stability problems have
occurred while the models, which the Riksbank uses for estimating the inflation target, have
evolved to be almost static. This rigidity makes it hard for the Riksbank to choose to think
new and adapt the decisions of the stability policy to the historical context of today},
  author       = {Jakobsson, Liza},
  keyword      = {minusränta,Inflationsmålet,Politikbyten,läroprocess,Nittiotalskrisen},
  language     = {swe},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Med nittiotalskrisen som kompass - en läroprocessanalys av svensk stabiliseringspolitik 1985 - 2015},
  year         = {2016},
}