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United Kingdom’s exports following Brexit

Nordqvist, Eric LU and Dahlqvist, Erik (2017) NEKH03 20162
Department of Economics
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of Brexit on export performance of the United Kingdom towards the rest of the EU15. It does so by first establishing a “hard Brexit” as the probable outcome. Using the gravity model it then establishes the effect of variables such as distance and GDP per capita on exports. These effects are found by running the regression on a sample of four non-EU countries during the period 1995-2012. This regression results in fitted values that when adapted to the United Kingdom estimates potential exports. These potential exports are significantly lower on average than actual exports during the time period. If the trend continues the United Kingdom would face a 2% reduction of relative trade on average due to trade... (More)
This paper investigates the effects of Brexit on export performance of the United Kingdom towards the rest of the EU15. It does so by first establishing a “hard Brexit” as the probable outcome. Using the gravity model it then establishes the effect of variables such as distance and GDP per capita on exports. These effects are found by running the regression on a sample of four non-EU countries during the period 1995-2012. This regression results in fitted values that when adapted to the United Kingdom estimates potential exports. These potential exports are significantly lower on average than actual exports during the time period. If the trend continues the United Kingdom would face a 2% reduction of relative trade on average due to trade effects of Brexit. (Less)
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author
Nordqvist, Eric LU and Dahlqvist, Erik
supervisor
organization
course
NEKH03 20162
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Brexit, Gravity Model, Potential trade, European Union, United Kingdom.
language
English
id
8901551
date added to LUP
2017-02-10 14:03:33
date last changed
2017-02-10 14:03:33
@misc{8901551,
  abstract     = {This paper investigates the effects of Brexit on export performance of the United Kingdom towards the rest of the EU15. It does so by first establishing a “hard Brexit” as the probable outcome. Using the gravity model it then establishes the effect of variables such as distance and GDP per capita on exports. These effects are found by running the regression on a sample of four non-EU countries during the period 1995-2012. This regression results in fitted values that when adapted to the United Kingdom estimates potential exports. These potential exports are significantly lower on average than actual exports during the time period. If the trend continues the United Kingdom would face a 2% reduction of relative trade on average due to trade effects of Brexit.},
  author       = {Nordqvist, Eric and Dahlqvist, Erik},
  keyword      = {Brexit,Gravity Model,Potential trade,European Union,United Kingdom.},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {United Kingdom’s exports following Brexit},
  year         = {2017},
}