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Vilka samband råder mellan real växelkurs och olika sektorer av svensk utrikeshandel?

Olsson, Björn LU (2017) NEKH01 20162
Department of Economics
Abstract
This paper seeks to investigate the effects of the real exchange rate on the Swedish trade balance. By investigating for the elasticities of demand from the real exchange rate on Swedish exports and imports this paper seeks to present a more detailed and specific estimate than previous studies on the trade balance. An Autoregressive dynamic lag model (ARDL) is used to conduct regressions, using lags of the dependent and independent variables as regressors. The data involves quarterly statistics for Swedish imports and exports of services, produced goods and commodities, Sweden’s and foreign GDP, Sweden’s net international investment position, Brent crude oil price and Swedish real exchange rate measured relative to the country’s main... (More)
This paper seeks to investigate the effects of the real exchange rate on the Swedish trade balance. By investigating for the elasticities of demand from the real exchange rate on Swedish exports and imports this paper seeks to present a more detailed and specific estimate than previous studies on the trade balance. An Autoregressive dynamic lag model (ARDL) is used to conduct regressions, using lags of the dependent and independent variables as regressors. The data involves quarterly statistics for Swedish imports and exports of services, produced goods and commodities, Sweden’s and foreign GDP, Sweden’s net international investment position, Brent crude oil price and Swedish real exchange rate measured relative to the country’s main trading partners. The data is from the first quarter of 1995 to the second quarter of 2016. This paper finds some evidence of a statistically significant real exchange rate effect on Swedish foreign trade, especially on the import side. However, the estimated results also suggest that the real exchange rate only has a small effect on export. This suggest that other factors, such as GDP affect Swedish trade to a higher degree. The policy implication is that the importance of the real exchange rate on the trade balance should not be overestimated, but rather seen as one of several minor factors affecting trade, where domestic and foreign GDP being the major factors. (Less)
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author
Olsson, Björn LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKH01 20162
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Export, import, real växelkurs, Marshall-Lerner villkoret, J-kurva
language
Swedish
id
8902496
date added to LUP
2017-02-10 13:24:41
date last changed
2017-02-10 13:24:41
@misc{8902496,
  abstract     = {This paper seeks to investigate the effects of the real exchange rate on the Swedish trade balance. By investigating for the elasticities of demand from the real exchange rate on Swedish exports and imports this paper seeks to present a more detailed and specific estimate than previous studies on the trade balance. An Autoregressive dynamic lag model (ARDL) is used to conduct regressions, using lags of the dependent and independent variables as regressors. The data involves quarterly statistics for Swedish imports and exports of services, produced goods and commodities, Sweden’s and foreign GDP, Sweden’s net international investment position, Brent crude oil price and Swedish real exchange rate measured relative to the country’s main trading partners. The data is from the first quarter of 1995 to the second quarter of 2016. This paper finds some evidence of a statistically significant real exchange rate effect on Swedish foreign trade, especially on the import side. However, the estimated results also suggest that the real exchange rate only has a small effect on export. This suggest that other factors, such as GDP affect Swedish trade to a higher degree. The policy implication is that the importance of the real exchange rate on the trade balance should not be overestimated, but rather seen as one of several minor factors affecting trade, where domestic and foreign GDP being the major factors.},
  author       = {Olsson, Björn},
  keyword      = {Export,import,real växelkurs,Marshall-Lerner villkoret,J-kurva},
  language     = {swe},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Vilka samband råder mellan real växelkurs och olika sektorer av svensk utrikeshandel?},
  year         = {2017},
}