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Developing a model with help of GIS to assess risk for Storm Damage in Kronoberg County

Ulfves, Frida (2015) In Student thesis series INES NGEK01 20151
Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Abstract
During the 20th century storm damage in Sweden has increased as a consequence of how the forest has been managed, an increased proportion of forest and older tree stands. The increase of storm damage has consequences for the regional economy, infrastructure, foresters, and the society. At the same time the climate is gradually changing, which means increased temperatures and higher precipitation ranges. Progressively we are shifting towards another climate, and an altered climate will have both direct and indirect effect on our forests.
To prevent future storm damage to our forests it is essential to adapt. Forest management must be scrutinized and assessed, and models to predict and evaluate storm damage can be valuable. This study... (More)
During the 20th century storm damage in Sweden has increased as a consequence of how the forest has been managed, an increased proportion of forest and older tree stands. The increase of storm damage has consequences for the regional economy, infrastructure, foresters, and the society. At the same time the climate is gradually changing, which means increased temperatures and higher precipitation ranges. Progressively we are shifting towards another climate, and an altered climate will have both direct and indirect effect on our forests.
To prevent future storm damage to our forests it is essential to adapt. Forest management must be scrutinized and assessed, and models to predict and evaluate storm damage can be valuable. This study focuses on identifying areas with particular risk for storm damage. By doing this it becomes easier to prevent further damage in the future. It facilitates the decisions for foresters regarding management strategies but also makes it possible to perform deeper assessments of influencing factors, both abiotic and biotic. In this thesis the landscape of Kronoberg County, a county in southern Sweden is examined. Several variables are applied to a classification model which demonstrates five categories of varying risk of storm damage. The model was then compared to actual storm damage to investigate its accuracy.
The study showed that when it comes to storm damage to forests this type of simple classification modelling gives a rather realistic picture of the forest sensitivity. A flat landscape like the county of Kronoberg made it easier to perform the analysis since topography can have a large impact on the extent of storm damage. Changing values and altering weighting in the equations was an effective way of investigating the best type of model design. Kronoberg County it is essential to encourage the establishment of mixed forest stands at a rejuvenation stage. (Less)
Popular Abstract (Swedish)
Under 1900-talet har stormskador på skog ökat vilket är en konsekvens av vårt skogsbruk, en ökad volym av skog, och äldre skogsbestånd. Denna ökning av stormskador har konsekvenser för ekonomi, infrastruktur, skogsägare och samhälle. Samtidigt ändras klimatet successivt, och detta kommer i framtiden att innebära högre temperaturer och ökad nederbörd. Långsamt närmar vi oss ett nytt slags klimat, som kommer att ha både direkt och indirekt påverkan på våra skogar, men med förändrat skogstillstånd som följd.
För att motverka framtida stormskador på skog är det viktigt med anpassning. Skogsbruket måste granskas och bli bedömt och modeller som förutspår och utvärderar stormskador kan vara betydelsefulla. Den här studien fokuserar på att... (More)
Under 1900-talet har stormskador på skog ökat vilket är en konsekvens av vårt skogsbruk, en ökad volym av skog, och äldre skogsbestånd. Denna ökning av stormskador har konsekvenser för ekonomi, infrastruktur, skogsägare och samhälle. Samtidigt ändras klimatet successivt, och detta kommer i framtiden att innebära högre temperaturer och ökad nederbörd. Långsamt närmar vi oss ett nytt slags klimat, som kommer att ha både direkt och indirekt påverkan på våra skogar, men med förändrat skogstillstånd som följd.
För att motverka framtida stormskador på skog är det viktigt med anpassning. Skogsbruket måste granskas och bli bedömt och modeller som förutspår och utvärderar stormskador kan vara betydelsefulla. Den här studien fokuserar på att identifiera områden med särskild risk för stormskada. Genom att göra detta blir det lättare att förhindra stormskada i framtiden. Det hjälper skogsägare att ta beslut gällande metoder för skogsbruk men det gör det även möjligt att genomföra djupare utvärderingar kring de abiotiska och biotiska faktorerna. I den här studien är Kronoberg län, ett län i södra Sverige granskat. Ett antal variabler är applicerade till en klassificeringsmodell, med vilken fem olika kategorier med varierande risk för stormskador kan kartläggas. Därefter är modellen jämförd med faktiska stormskador för att undersöka kvalitén av modellen.
Studien visar att när det kommer till stormskador på skog så ger den här typen av enkelt klassificeringsmodellerande en någorlunda realistisk bild över skogens känslighet. Topografin har ett betydande inflytande på omfattningen av stormskador och analysen förenklades något på grund av Kronobergs flacka landskap. Att ändra värden och byta ut viktningar i ekvationerna var ett effektivt sätt att undersöka bästa modellutformning. Modellresultaten indikerar att för att kunna motverka framtida stormskador i Kronoberg är det essentiellt att vid föryngring se till att gynna uppkomsten av blandbestånd. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Ulfves, Frida
supervisor
organization
course
NGEK01 20151
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
storm damage, wind throw, classification modelling, climate change, forest management
publication/series
Student thesis series INES
report number
345
language
English
id
8903509
date added to LUP
2017-02-20 16:03:02
date last changed
2017-02-20 16:03:02
@misc{8903509,
  abstract     = {During the 20th century storm damage in Sweden has increased as a consequence of how the forest has been managed, an increased proportion of forest and older tree stands. The increase of storm damage has consequences for the regional economy, infrastructure, foresters, and the society. At the same time the climate is gradually changing, which means increased temperatures and higher precipitation ranges. Progressively we are shifting towards another climate, and an altered climate will have both direct and indirect effect on our forests.
To prevent future storm damage to our forests it is essential to adapt. Forest management must be scrutinized and assessed, and models to predict and evaluate storm damage can be valuable. This study focuses on identifying areas with particular risk for storm damage. By doing this it becomes easier to prevent further damage in the future. It facilitates the decisions for foresters regarding management strategies but also makes it possible to perform deeper assessments of influencing factors, both abiotic and biotic. In this thesis the landscape of Kronoberg County, a county in southern Sweden is examined. Several variables are applied to a classification model which demonstrates five categories of varying risk of storm damage. The model was then compared to actual storm damage to investigate its accuracy.
The study showed that when it comes to storm damage to forests this type of simple classification modelling gives a rather realistic picture of the forest sensitivity. A flat landscape like the county of Kronoberg made it easier to perform the analysis since topography can have a large impact on the extent of storm damage. Changing values and altering weighting in the equations was an effective way of investigating the best type of model design. Kronoberg County it is essential to encourage the establishment of mixed forest stands at a rejuvenation stage.},
  author       = {Ulfves, Frida},
  keyword      = {storm damage,wind throw,classification modelling,climate change,forest management},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  series       = {Student thesis series INES},
  title        = {Developing a model with help of GIS to assess risk for Storm Damage in Kronoberg County},
  year         = {2015},
}